Jump to content

Recommended Posts

The toad was recently asked by a scientist:


?How do you measure uncertainty?? I responded with ?fixed and variables?. This is an everyday question we ask ourselves to quantify the day ahead, our security, through to our future plans.


She then expanded and said that this is a question she askes Ministers when they consided new plans.....


How do you measure uncertainty?


TLT

Link to comment
https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/topic/15636-how-do-you-measure-uncertainty/
Share on other sites

Hmmm, interesting one this.


Multidisciplinary.


I suppose the answer to your question is you can't measure uncertainty. To measure implies a known, or agreed, standard of measurement. Uncertainty, by definition, can't be quantified. Prima facie, the question is illogical.


BUT, science tells us a cat can be both alive or dead at the same time depending on the observer and that an electron can be in two places at the same time.


So the question isn't as daft as it first appears.


However I'd advise your scientist to keep ministers out of the debate otherwise therein the road to madness lies

I think that Infinity, by definition, IS a measurement, though not one that has a set numemical value but more a property or behaviour that is defined. ie. never ending and therefore perpetual, a bit like mathematical limits where you don't get an exact number as the answer but a 'tendency' towards a sepcific (range of) number(s).

As soon as Schr?dinger's cat observes Chick - that's lunch sorted. No uncertainty there! (I taut I thaw a puddy tat!)


Seriously, if you do look up Schr?dinger's cat you have a 50:50 chance of finding it dead - best not go there.


Sadly - attempting to measure uncertainty has killed more cats than any other scientific experiment. Be nice - don?t open the box!

Using a 'Starting Point' is an automatic action by us all - and starts at 50-50.


1. When you cycle through a GREEN traffic light at a 4-way junction you are pretty certain you will not be hit by a car (on your Left or Right hand side) as they are at a RED light. But what stops them, as a RED light is purely a symbolic function?


2. However, the same set of lights, a pedestrian crossing when the green man appears (and I don't mean from Mars) stands a greater chance of being hit by a cyclist, yet..... its the same symbolic function?


Unfortunately, more incidents with cyclist will help with this measurement of uncertainty.



TLT

First, you get some training in statistics, so that you can understand and apply probability theory, statistical mechanics, decision theory etc.


The scientist's question was rhetorical: she will of course have a thorough grounding in statistics, probability, risk, uncertainty... as part of her scientific training. The problem with most politicians is they don't have a clue. So the question is an interesting one to ask, to determine whether they have any sound framework at all for arriving at decisions.

> Unfortunately, more incidents with cyclist will

> help with this measurement of uncertainty.



Wouldn't different categories of uncertainty be subject to different methods of measurement?


To me, there are different classes of uncertainty. E.g., I view the uncertainty alluded to immediately above as being of the variety which becomes more certain with experimentation. Whereas, where in the OP you talk of "fixed and variables", this type of uncertainty would become more certain with the application of probability and chance? No?

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Latest Discussions

    • Hi, not sure if anyone can help, I am having trouble with my car, a mechanical issue specific to this Peugeot model I have. I am looking to see if anyone knows of a garage nearby that has Peugeot knowledge and can help ( I also need to get the car towed there) I have tried stellantis in Croydon and Wimbledon, who are bloody difficult to get hold of for a start (took me a week to get some sort of reply) they can’t  book me in for over four  weeks, want £200 just to have a look at it first, and it’s a fare way for me to pay to have it towed Considering this is where I got the car from I,d thought they would be more helpful, but hey. just thought I would see if anyone had any recommendations on here for someone nearer.
    • on a practical level found here these have very positive feedback:   Danny - 07943 673482 joeast 12/09/23 Just had my roof replaced by Danny (mobile 07943 673482) who I would highly recommend. He is honest, clean, reliable and explained the work and sent photos as the work progressed. His initial estimate for costs was detailed and close to the actual price of the job. jamondo 07/12/24 Another recommendation for Danny here!  After carrying out extensive work on our property in 2018, we have constantly had problems  with the newly built roof.  Then followed numerous fixes and bodges by the builders then by other so called 'experts' and professionals' charging extortionate amounts and / or giving guarantees that amounted to nothing.  Lots of 'it could be this and that etc...'  Sadly our tale of woe is not uncommon. After getting a number of people to look at the roof - the consensus was that the whole roof needed redoing (it was clear that by now the roof looked a mess with multiple things done wrong or poorly).  We obtained quotes and decided to go with Danny - his was the most competitive but it was not overriding factor behind why we did.  Danny made clear what the quote covered and where there might be extra work required as he got to it (this was fairly minor). He was easy to get a hold of and responded promptly and he was also happy to offer up refences which I did contact and all were happy to vouch for him. Minor downside was that we had a bit of a wait, but it was worth it.  When work started I was kept updated with progress and photos.  Issues were dealt with, and although I'm not an expert by any means the appearance of the work was top.  Most importantly we are leak free! bonzo 17/05/25 Needed a new rear roof for terrace house in East Dulwich and heard about Danny Denton (07943 673482). Have worked with over 20 builders in the past but this guy was way the best - polite, hard working, honest, professional, informative, highly skilled and above all quoted lower than any of the others who came down to view the job. If you need roofing work I would definitely give him a call. If he's busy working else where I assure you he is well worth waiting for. He got the scaffold up and job finished in no time and kept me informed at every stage. Another roofer (who appears on this forum) gave a quote which was three times higher than Danny's.   #########################################################   Norwood Roofing 07412 000 214 Email Address: [email protected] Website: https://norwoodroofing.co.uk/ Fee163 01/01/26 Another 5 star recommendation for David and Patrick. Got in touch with David last week regarding clearing our gutters and as always he quoted immediately and came out within the week to do the job.  We've used David and Patrick for all our roof work for almost 10 years .   They also did an amazing job for my sister who is based outside the area - she couldn't easily find someone local and they stepped in and did a fantastic job (it was quite a big job).  Can't recommend them highly enough, really personable, always reliable and so easy to work with and consistent, just wouldn't work with anyone one else!  Thanks again David and Patrick. caroline5553 12/01/26 Another recommendation for David and Patrick. David came out the same day we called, had scaffolding up by the weekend and the job done on Monday. Really nice guys, never made me feel uncomfortable, easy to work with and seemed to have done a great job. Thanks, David and Patrick! sheppick 15/12/25 I would also recommend David and Patrick. David quoted immediately, and they came and did the work I needed the following week. They fixed my leaking roof and did a number of other jobs for me that were needed on the roof. Really reliable, turned up on time and very reasonable quote. Super easy to deal with and I would highly recommend.  #################################################################   Which Trusted Trader R Tredget & Son 07905829393 or 07956553852  [email protected] http://www.rtredgetandson.com/ OUR FEATURED WORKS Roofing, plumbing, kitchen installation, building, interior decorating, electrical installation, bathroom installation, exterior decorating, tiling, plastering, landscaping & carpentry 02/08/25 This is the second time R. Tredget & Son have carried out works on our property. Part of the work included the repair of cladding on an end gable that Richard had previously installed but it had since been accidentally damaged by another trades-person. I assumed I'd pay for such repair work, as the damage was no fault of his own, but when we discussed this, Richard was adamant he would not charge! Made a lovely job of the repair too. When you turn your home (or part of it) over to builders it often feels like they've taken over. Not so with Richard, Adam and Harrison. They respect your property and are willing to work with you. They keep you informed at every stage, offering suggestions and alternatives as appropriate and they don't take liberties. We are so glad to have found R. Tredget & Son builders: quality work from reliable, hard-working and courteous folks. 10/10/24 Multiple jobs complete to a high standard We've used Richard for a few years now getting our house complete. He and his team have completely refitted our kitchen, replaced ceilings, built internal and external walls, laid flooring, plastered, decorated, fixed guttering, fit skirting boards; the list goes on! They take pride in their work, and every job we've needed doing, they've always done to a high standard. No job was too big or too small for them, and I've no doubt the quality work they've done has increased the value of our house, so a big thanks again for everything they've done. 17/04/24 A Great Family Run Company This was our first time having works done in a new house so we were understandably nervous! From the first meeting with Richard and Adam we knew that we would be in good hands. Nothing that we wanted done was too much of an issue, even if it was a bit more of a challenge to them (unlike some other quotes we got!). They gave clever suggestions but weren't pushy with it and had good ideas! We had a whole new bathroom installed and then some structural work done around the house. The guys always made sure that they left the house in a clean state at the end of every day, which really made a difference to our standard of living during the works. Richard, Michelle, Adam, and H were trustworthy and communication was perfect throughout. We used some of their guys for boiler/electrics too and they were also great. Would highly recommend taking them on for your works!       
    • Bit of a long-shot, but I dropped my glasses somewhere along my run last night, after taking them off due to the rain. The glasses are Giorgio Armani with grey frames. My running route attached, so they could be anywhere along this route. If you've found them, please get in touch! 07971806292 Many thanks James
    • I'm in the middle of the civil service pension crisis with no pension for 4 months and counting. No access to the much publicised loans either. I have emailed Helen Hayes several times. It took her 6 weeks to contact Capita on my behalf but no follow up, no reply, she didn't attend the Westminster Hall debate about the issue either. Lots of other MPs are speaking and acting on behalf of their constituents but I've had no joy. Has anyone else please? What works to get help from Helen Hayes?
Home
Events
Sign In

Sign In



Or sign in with one of these services

Search
×
    Search In
×
×
  • Create New...