Catalonia

[Loz]

OK, after an almighty mess caused by two politicians that just refused to talk to each other, surely new elections are the way forward. The Catalonian guy just has to use it as a referendum. If he wins, the Spanish PM is going to look like he's made a massive political miscalculation.

But it leads to so many questions.

- if the PM was so confident in the majority of Catalonians wanting to stay, why did he violently stop the referendum?

- if the Catalonian leader is so confident in the majority of Catalonians wanting to go, why doesn't he grab this new opportunity for a pseudo-referendum?

Personally, I think Catalonia would have been mostly happy with a bit more autonomy but it has now turned into a stupid game of brinkmanship.

As a side issue, I think it is a complete human rights violation that any constitution does not allow a region to break away, should they democratically (with a qualified majority) choose to do so.

[JoeLeg]

Well as we found out last year, a referendum has a tendency to lead to more problems than it solves. The binary nature of such a complex question cannot hope to cover all the issues.

In terms of Catalonia specifically, it's a funny one if viewed by outsiders. I've known a few Catalonians and I don't think most Brits would understand their fervent desire to be an independent nation. The sense of nationhood as Catalonians that runs through them is deep and abiding. I don't really understand why they wanted a referendum, because I can't see how they would be better off independent, but that goes straight back to the point I just made; a lot of us don't. However, I accept that many of them do.

The referendum was a terrible move, because Spain refused to recognise its legitimacy; ergo, it's no more valid than me asking three people outside Londis if they favour independence for SE22, getting two 'yes' votes, and promptly declaring seccesion from the UK. Hyperbole on my part maybe, but it makes my point - a referendum that is not recognised by higher authority is nothing more than a PR stunt.

Where Spain goes from here, I have no idea. I can't imagine it coming to violence, but then I don't see it being resolved amicably either. Likely the will thrash it out round the negotiating table, but yes, it's already gone farther than it should've.

Regarding the issue of any constitution allowing regions to break away, hmmm...I agree and disagree. How far can it go? Isn't the logical end of that collections of fiefdoms and city states? Would what became Germany (Prussia, technically) and Italy have been better of if Bismarck and Garibaldi never tried to unify them? Would the USA be better if Texas and California went through on their occasional threats to secede? Should Quebec really be ruled by Paris?

Ultimately we are stronger united than divided, and its human nature to band together in tribes. Yes, I think on the whole I agree that any constitution needs an opt-out clause, but they need to be really carefully written, and therein lies the danger.

[Loz]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> Ultimately we are stronger united than divided, and its human nature to band together in tribes.

> Yes, I think on the whole I agree that any constitution needs an opt-out clause, but they

> need to be really carefully written, and therein lies the danger.

Oh, I agree fully. Thus my 'qualified majority' stipulation. Anything of this magnitude (and like Brexit) should require an increased majority - say 60% or even two-thirds. That was Cameron's big mistake.

[Nigello]

Spanish politics is not as clean as it is here, centrally or regionally. Both sides have been stubborn and unimaginative. The separatists' leaders may claim a pure, higher moral ground but they are - to an extent - taking advantage of latent nativism and legitimate regional pride (in language, culture, etc.) in their voter base to get what they want. The idea that Catalonia will become EU country 29 anytime soon is far-fetched because Brussels won't let it happen.

[rendelharris]

Nigello Wrote

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> Spanish politics is not as clean as it is here,

> centrally or regionally. Both sides have been

> stubborn and unimaginative.

Oh yes, that's very different to what pertains in the UK at present!

[JohnL]

Loz Wrote:

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> - if the PM was so confident in the majority of

> Catalonians wanting to stay, why did he violently

> stop the referendum?

>

Most of the "unionists" (or whatever the official name is) didn't

vote as advised by their parties as it was an illegal referendum

in their view.

[Nigello]

By clean, I meant corruption-wise. You have to agree that the UK is, relatively speaking, freer of the kind of corruption that plagues Spain, Italy, former Soviet Bloc countries, etc. True, it must exist but it is of a scale and type that is different.

[EDOldie]

How was it illegal? The Catalan government was elected democratically and they decided to have the referendum. Surely the Madrid government should respect this and have stayed out of trying to disrupt it. It looks like they were more worried about losing the referendum than a democratic result being arrived at.

[red devil]

EDOldie Wrote:

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> How was it illegal?

From The Guardian...

Q&A

Why does the Spanish government say the Catalan referendum is illegal?

The Spanish government argues that any referendum on Catalan independence would be illegal because the country?s 1978 constitution makes no provision for a vote on self-determination.

The Spanish constitutional court, which has suspended the referendum law pushed through the Catalan parliament in September, is looking into whether the law breaches the constitution.

In March this year, the former Catalan president Artur Mas was banned from holding public office for two years after being found guilty of disobeying the constitutional court by holding a symbolic independence referendum three years ago.

[JohnL]

EDOldie Wrote:

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> How was it illegal? The Catalan government was

> elected democratically and they decided to have

> the referendum. Surely the Madrid government

> should respect this and have stayed out of trying

> to disrupt it. It looks like they were more

> worried about losing the referendum than a

> democratic result being arrived at.

The Scottish referendum was agreed by the UK parliament the Catalonia referendum was not (and at present couldn't be) agreed by the Spanish parliament. So any country recognising Catalonia agrees a precedent is set.

If this precedent was set then a lot of provinces etc. could unilaterally work towards independence.

I'd say get a referendum that is recognised by all sides (which means changing Spanish law).

[rendelharris]

Nigello Wrote:

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> By clean, I meant corruption-wise. You have to

> agree that the UK is, relatively speaking, freer

> of the kind of corruption that plagues Spain,

> Italy, former Soviet Bloc countries, etc. True, it

> must exist but it is of a scale and type that is

> different.

Actually global anti-corruption campaigners frequently rank the UK as the most corrupt nation on earth, because the City of London and the property market are used to launder trillions of dollars of crime money each year with successive governments afraid to challenge it for fear of upsetting vested interests. It is true that we don't have to suffer the low-level corruption endemic in other countries and cultures - bribing policemen not to ticket us etc - but until we've cleaned up the financial sector it ill behoves us to give ourselves too many pats on the back.

[Loz]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Loz Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > - if the PM was so confident in the majority of

> > Catalonians wanting to stay, why did he violently

> > stop the referendum?

> >

>

> Most of the "unionists" (or whatever the official name is) didn't

> vote as advised by their parties as it was an illegal referendum

> in their view.

Not quite an answer to my question.

[JohnL]

Rumours Catalan President has flown to Brussels (in exile)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalonia-leader-carles-puigdemont-left-spain-brussels-rebellion-charges-eu-independence-latest-a8027366.html

[JohnL]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Loz Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> >

> > > - if the PM was so confident in the majority

> of

> > > Catalonians wanting to stay, why did he

> violently

> > > stop the referendum?

> > >

> >

> > Most of the "unionists" (or whatever the

> official name is) didn't

> > vote as advised by their parties as it was an

> illegal referendum

> > in their view.

>

> Not quite an answer to my question.

No idea - logically better to ignore it. Machissmo maybe.

[JohnL]

double post

[Loz]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Rumours Catalan President has flown to Brussels

> (in exile)

>

Rebellion, sedition, and provocation charges? Ridiculous. If a Catalan equivalent of ETA rise, they will only have the Spanish PM to blame.

[robbin]

Loz Wrote:

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> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Rumours Catalan President has flown to Brussels

> > (in exile)

> >

>

> Rebellion, sedition, and provocation charges?

> Ridiculous. If a Catalan equivalent of ETA rise,

> they will only have the Spanish PM to blame.

Quite - and such a group could be far larger and better funded than ETA ever was.

The Spanish PM's judgment is questionable, I think (quite apart from his well known love of the torturing of bulls to death for entertainment). Instinctively he seems to prefer macho displays of strength and power. I hope he at least has learnt a lesson from the backlash which came from when he sent in the thugs for the 'referendum'. Violence is far more likely to trigger further violence.

I imagine Nicola Sturgeon is now appreciating that Spain meant what it said about vetoing Scotland being admitted to the EU, had Scotland left the UK. Spain is extremely sensitive about this subject because of the separatist movements in the Basque, Galician and Catalan provinces.