Russian aggression - what to do?

[malumbu]

I was pretty horrified when the World Cup went to Russia (and Dubai for balance).

I'm following the sad situation in Syria and had planned to put a thread on before now.

I know a fair amount about nasty stuff - chemical biological nuclear (and know what CBRNE stands for). I was involved in some of the Litvinenko response. Hey, let's not push him under a bus, let's do something far more exotic so the world know who we are.

There will be lots of talk about what we do as a nation. What do I do as an individual? This is not first world problem. This is a global issue.

FFS we talked about Russia as a trade partner post-Brexit.

Answers please. No facetious ones, leave those for the threads that deserve it. I know geopolitics and the new world order goes beyond one nation.

[Louisa]

Interesting thread.

The problem we have, as a nation, is that we are pretty isolated on the world stage currently. We are weakened by Brexit and the current US administration isn?t massively keen on upsetting Russia and Putin (for whatever reason).

If it is proved beyond doubt that the Russian state is some way involved in this recent incident, Theresa May has to juggle UK defence and security interests with all sorts of financial and investment implications for London and the UK in general.

Potentially, she could do a lot to put pressure on Russia and prove that we mean business when it comes to dealing with this sort of awful act, but depending on the outcome of who they point the finger at, it would seem to me that as a nation isolated on the world stage more than ever, any action taken would probably be too little too late, unfortunately.

Louisa.

[Blah Blah]

I think that is right Louisa. we are pretty much limited in what action we can take and Putin knows it. He doesn't really care what the world thinks anyway, and is keen to remind the world of Russia's military strength when challenged. This is a familiar road.

I am guessing that action will start with tit for tat expulsion of diplomats. Sanctions of an economic type are more tricky, because we are not a global power anymore, and we are leaving the biggest economic alliance in Europe (in the world in fact). May might talk tough (as she always does) but the tenticles of power don't lie with politicians anymore, but global business, and obscene wealth in the hands of an increasing few.

[Tractorlad]

When's the World Cup coming to Dubai?

[womanofdulwich]

I do worry we get a lot of gas from Russia now. Time to make sure you have an alternative 🤔

[JohnL]

womanofdulwich Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I do worry we get a lot of gas from Russia now.

> Time to make sure you have an alternative

> 🤔

apparently it's less than it used to be. The rest of the EU is more reliant than us.

https://www.britishgas.co.uk/the-source/our-world-of-energy/energys-grand-journey/where-does-uk-gas-come-from

[JohnL]

Tractorlad Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> When's the World Cup coming to Dubai?

LOL I'm sure Malumbu meant Qatar :)

[JohnL]

So Rex Tillerson says he supports Theresa May against the Russians. Trump fires Rex Tillerson but nobody knows if this was before his Russian comments (on Friday) or after. Under Secretary Steve Goldstein says Tillerson was first made aware of his firing by Trumps tweet on Tuesday. Trump fires Steve Goldstein.

You could see a web of complications ... or maybe calling your boss a moron isn't a good idea (especially if it's "you're fired" Trump) :)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/steve-goldstein-fired-trump-rex-tillerson-us-state-department-white-house-a8254151.html

[Earl Aelfheah]

Realistically there is very little we can do.

[JohnL]

Theresa May has been quoted using the term "Economic War" but you do feel that Putin won't be too worried.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/russian-vladimir-putin-theresa-may-economic-war-sanctions-salisbury-nerve-agent-a8254626.html

[malumbu]

Thanks JohnL. A big raspberry to Tractorlad. Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi. All places you have to stop off on an intercontinental flight, where you have brash glitzy duty frees at silly time in the morning. All the same to me.

Due to geography we are plugged into the Norwegian main either at the gas/oil well, or though massive interconnectors. Therefore not dependent on the Ruskies. But them buggering around does affect nearer neighbours such as Poland, Ukraine and Germany and they can have a stranglehold. Geopolitical instability shouldn't affect supply to the UK, but will up the price.

[Blah Blah]

So May has anounced 3 immediate diplomatic expulsions, and has raised various issues with the UN and other bodies. Will Putin care? I think not.

[womanofdulwich]

*note to self to watch the programme about Putin on TV catch up.

[malumbu]

Please please tell me now as Duran Duran once sung.

What can we do as individuals - not just the current incident.

[womanofdulwich]

Would you like us all to endorse you to take a personal mission to Russia??

[JohnL]

Corbyn being criticised as he's asking for proof of Russia's guilt (whilst many of his back benches are supporting the Prime Minister unconditionally)

Hope for his sake he's read this right or the Labour split is back on (Did Trump also ask for proof ?).

[Blah Blah]

Not sure he asked for proof, rather details of the government investigation and response. It is clear enough that the nerve agent was a Russian product. He was doing ok at PMQs until he steered into a line about chemical weapons per se (which takes us into a number of foreign affairs territories and arms sales debates). At that point I felt he was using the issue to score points on other areas he would rather be arguing about.

[SpringTime]

We should expect the Russian regime to be irate.

They've suffered close to pointless NATO confrontation for decades; missile systems on their doorstep, a pathetic number of UK troops stationed in the Baltic for poorly considered reasons, Western powers supporting the wrong side in Syria etc. I'd expect them to be flexing their muscles...

And why would Putin care about how the UK responds?

[jimlad48]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Corbyn being criticised as he's asking for proof

> of Russia's guilt (whilst many of his back benches

> are supporting the Prime Minister

> unconditionally)

>

> Hope for his sake he's read this right or the

> Labour split is back on (Did Trump also ask for

> proof ?).

The challenge here is that this is significantly different to Iraqi WMD. In 03 the issue was that with no reliable testers on the ground, coupled with a variety of HUMINT reporting from sources that clearly were knowledgable to a point, and which corrleated with other reports, it was easy with hindsight to spot groupthink consensus emerging because there was no scientific way to test.

By contrast, in Syria, where the Russian backed regime has repeatedly used chemical weapons as part of a long list of atrocities they've committed, it is easy to conduct scientific tests to validate the chemicals used.

In the Salisbury case, it is a matter of conducting tests and handling forensic evidence, and not scouring the words of an individual to assess them for veracity. Additionally, to accuse a state of conducting an attack by another using CBW is a very strong statement to make - you do not make them lightly, and you have to be certain of your ground to do so.

Corbyn has essentially called all the people who work for the Government, dedicated public sector workers (and most likely union members too) liars in their assessment. Thats a pretty fundamentally stupid thing to do.

[Blah Blah]

SpringTime Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

'We should expect the Russian regime to be irate.

They've suffered close to pointless NATO confrontation for decades; missile systems on their doorstep, a pathetic number of UK troops stationed in the Baltic for poorly considered reasons, Western powers supporting the wrong side in Syria etc. I'd expect them to be flexing their muscles...'

Is this a serious response?

[JoeLeg]

What can we do?

Sweet FA...

What many people forget is that Russia has long been a master of misdirection, subterfuge, confusion and deception. Good old 'maskirovka', and they are very, very good at it. Putin is clever, he doesn't act impulsively (we hope). If this was Russia, then they've already thought about our reaction when we find out (I mean come on, this happened just down the road from Porton Down - if it was an act by others we were definitely going to work out what was done), and they're making moves now that they already planned.

Someone once said that the Russian people are 'a rabble looking for a whip'. There's a grain of truth in that, but Russians like Putin because he's strong leader who promises to keep them safe. They've had extensive experience of paying for safety with blood, and they refuse to sit back and wait for trouble to come to them - they reach out and nip it in the bud, sometimes quite violently. All the time they're sending out the message "Do not mess with us, we will bite back". I'm amazed when people are surprised at Putin's intervention in Ukraine, or the idea that they will threaten to turn off gas supplies - they play for keeps over there.

But again, we have no idea of what Putin is really playing at; people talk these days of hybrid warfare, the Russian bot factories, economic action at so on, all of which goes back to the Russian way of doing things - they're taking action and making moves before anyone else realises the game has started. That may sound a bit "Hollywood dramatic", but it's basically how they work - they learnt in WW2 that ultimately you take less casualties attacking than you do defending, and they simply extended that logic to everything else.

There's nothing we can do. Putin is not going to be pushed around, and despite the flaws in their system he genuinely enjoys popular support - he'd probably get reelected no matter what. The relations between the UK and Russia are not very good now, and i have no idea how anyone can make them better; just as he won't be pushed around, neither can we let ourselves be, especially with Brexit looming. I remember the Cold War, and I have no desire to return to it.

[Blah Blah]

A lot of Putin's popularity is due to the failure of Glasnost. Capitalism did not work for ordinary Russians. They went from state stability to not being paid and having to sell their possessions to eat, while the oligarchs rose, buying up the shares given to the people (in previously state owned industries) for peanuts. Along comes Putin, kicks out the Oligarchs and restores the communist state. The people were relieved. This is what the west never understands. We think that all the world needs is Western capitalism to make everyone happy. It is nonsense.

[Capitals]

No more Smirnoff!

[Harry]

"We should expect the Russian regime to be irate.

They've suffered close to pointless NATO confrontation for decades; missile systems on their doorstep, a pathetic number of UK troops stationed in the Baltic for poorly considered reasons, Western powers supporting the wrong side in Syria etc. I'd expect them to be flexing their muscles...

And why would Putin care about how the UK responds?"

Thank you

[SpringTime]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> SpringTime Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> 'We should expect the Russian regime to be irate.

>

> They've suffered close to pointless NATO

> confrontation for decades; missile systems on

> their doorstep, a pathetic number of UK troops

> stationed in the Baltic for poorly considered

> reasons, Western powers supporting the wrong side

> in Syria etc. I'd expect them to be flexing their

> muscles...'

>

>

>

> Is this a serious response?

Yes.