12pm start Sat 20th July - 'March For Change' in Central London

[Loutwo]

A second referendum may well happen, but as a democrat in a polarised society, I fail to see how it will resolve things. I genuinely can?t.

Louisa.

[Sephiroth]

Lets go back to Ireland again

That 45% losing side became a very decisive Two thirds majority. That resolves a lot of things

Any way in which you can stop this and reset the clock, prevents further* damage to the fabric of the country. People who still want to leave them get to regroup and define what kind of future leave state they think would work and can spend years campaigning for that. But at least we have contro Of our destiny again. We keep all of the trade agreements and we can rethink how we balance the economy

* too much damage has already been done with business leaving, citizens worried and of course reputations damage. But that is done now

[dbboy]

lets not

[Sephiroth]

And who will you blame if it goes as badly as people like me say it will dbboy?

[dbboy]

blame, why are you so concerned about who to blame or point the finger at, it matters not.

[Sephiroth]

Given the stakes it matters a hell of a lot

[Sephiroth]

Good luck getting mays deal ?with a few t?s crossed and i?s dotted? past this level of lunacy

https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1156012/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-latest-brexit-news-priti-patel

[Loutwo]

You can say a lot of things about Boris, but one thing you can?t accuse him of is not wanting to be PM at whatever cost. Based on that, I would assume he will say anything to get the job (he needs to appease the Brexit loving party base), and once he?s got the job, he will do a Houdini act and wriggle out of this by either calling a snap election, re-branding May?s deal, or forcing another referendum. He believes in Brexit as much as a Turkey believes in Christmas. He wants the job, then he will do anything to keep it. Whatever the cost.

Louisa.

[diable rouge]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Wow foxy

>

> ?2.6 billion per cent ?

>

> That?s a lot. Are you SURE??

>

> Now. Even if we were to give your numbers

> credibility (which I don?t) what?s the difference

> between gross and net

Just catching up on some of these Brexiter gems, never trust a sly old fox that doesn't name his source...https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1152633799295098880

[diable rouge]

And for the loopy saying that the polls haven't changed, independent long-term tracking trend begs to differ...https://britainelects.com/polling/europe/

[dbboy]

Totally agree wit you Louise.

[Sephiroth]

Quite so DR

It?s madness to think the whole country isn?t seeing what?s happening and nit changing it?s collective mind

I also believe there is a massive numbers of people who publicly give it the ?big ?un? re Brexit (because they think they might sound weak/traitorous/whatever) but in privacy of a polling booth will knock this on the head

What people like dbboy really fear is being found out for being such a relatively small minority with nothing like a mandate for their folly

[Angelina]

Totally agree too.

[Loutwo]

I?m not so sure long term polling says anything of the sort. I would be more inclined to look at recent European election results, in which the split was pretty much 50/50 between who voted for leave and remain parties.

I know it doesn?t fit in easily with the ?remain? narrative that everyone is suddenly having a collective eureka moment in the ?leave? camp, but unfortunately for them, the most recent elections tell us a very different story.

Btw it?s Loopy Lou not ?the loopy?

Louisa.

[dbboy]

Sephiroth - No, not at all. Clearly as a remoaner you appear fixated with not being able to accept the referendum result. It's what the people voted for, accept it and move on.

[JohnL]

dbboy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Cameron posed the question and duly quit because

> he was a remainer, May picked up the poison

> chalice and got her fingers burned, next Boris who

> is a bumbling buffoon. As I said earlier, with

> ministers resigning on Wednesday, if he takes

> office, don't forget Hunt may win????, but if

> Boris as predicted wins, the cabinet revolts or

> are revolting, then Corbyn seeks a vote of no

> confidence in the Govt, a GE is called, no overall

> winner, Corbyn loses badly and is duly ousted,

> where does that leave the UK, even more up a creek

> without a paddle.

I'd like a single no confidence motion and the sane grouping of MP's in Parliament to come together and form a Government before the 14 days expire. Unlikely though.

[diable rouge]

Loutwo Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I?m not so sure long term polling says anything of

> the sort. I would be more inclined to look at

> recent European election results, in which the

> split was pretty much 50/50 between who voted for

> leave and remain parties.

I don't think you can look at the Euro polls in isolation or as some sort of benchmark regarding voting intentions, as they have always been seen as a vehicle for a protest vote, a free hit, thus leading to skewed results, and that applies to both sides of the Brexit divide.

I also don't agree that the parties were split 50/50 in the Euros along Leave and Remain lines. It was clear that the Brexit Party was a vote for Leave, and likewise the LibDems/Greens and Welsh/Scots Nats were clearly a vote for Remain. As for the rest who voted Tory and Labour, you can't say for certain if they were Leavers or Remainers. What in effect you've got is a 3-way split, a third for a hardcore Brexit i.e. No Deal, and a third for a hardcore Remain i.e. Revoke, and the rest in the middle who would probably accept a softer Brexit, abut when push comes to shove, a majority of those would vote for Remain over No Deal, which backs up the 55 - 45% in favour of Remain that the long-term tracker polls are showing.

> Btw it?s Loopy Lou not ?the loopy?

It was a compliment, as in 'the Donald' or our very own self-appointed 'the fox'...

[diable rouge]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> dbboy Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Cameron posed the question and duly quit

> because

> > he was a remainer, May picked up the poison

> > chalice and got her fingers burned, next Boris

> who

> > is a bumbling buffoon. As I said earlier, with

> > ministers resigning on Wednesday, if he takes

> > office, don't forget Hunt may win????, but if

> > Boris as predicted wins, the cabinet revolts or

> > are revolting, then Corbyn seeks a vote of no

> > confidence in the Govt, a GE is called, no

> overall

> > winner, Corbyn loses badly and is duly ousted,

> > where does that leave the UK, even more up a

> creek

> > without a paddle.

>

> I'd like a single no confidence motion and the

> sane grouping of MP's in Parliament to come

> together and form a Government before the 14 days

> expire. Unlikely though.

As much as I would like it to happen for the comedy value of seeing Johnson's face, it's very unlikely that there will be a no confidence vote as soon as he takes office of PM, the Guakeward squad are far more likely to hold fire until nearer the Brexit deadline. Johnson will try and save face in all this and let Parliament dictate events, so expect a no confidence vote and subsequent election in the Autumn, thus a viable reason for yet another Brexit extension...

[keano77]

As I?ve previously stated on another thread I suspect we?ll avert a no deal with a last minute fudge - it?s what?s the EU does well. The Sunday Times reported this morning that five EU nations are in secret talks with Boris?s team.

Simon Coveney, the deputy prime minister of Ireland, is in town and was on the Andrew Marr show this morning. Despite the usual bluff and bluster of EU unity, no change to the Withdrawal Agreement etc, he and Varadkar know a no-deal means the EU Will make Ireland set up a hard border to protect their money - it?s got bugger all to do with peace.

That would mean bye bye Fine Gael, at best emergency EU funding for Ireland, at worst a second EU bailout in time.

No sensible person would wish for such an outcome, especially the new President-elect of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen who will take up her position under a cloud of questionable appointment and suitability for the job.

[Jenny1]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I don't think you can look at the Euro polls in

> isolation or as some sort of benchmark regarding

> voting intentions, as they have always been seen

> as a vehicle for a protest vote, a free hit, thus

> leading to skewed results, and that applies to

> both sides of the Brexit divide.

> I also don't agree that the parties were split

> 50/50 in the Euros along Leave and Remain lines.

> It was clear that the Brexit Party was a vote for

> Leave, and likewise the LibDems/Greens and

> Welsh/Scots Nats were clearly a vote for Remain.

> As for the rest who voted Tory and Labour, you

> can't say for certain if they were Leavers or

> Remainers. What in effect you've got is a 3-way

> split, a third for a hardcore Brexit i.e. No Deal,

> and a third for a hardcore Remain i.e. Revoke, and

> the rest in the middle who would probably accept a

> softer Brexit, abut when push comes to shove, a

> majority of those would vote for Remain over No

> Deal, which backs up the 55 - 45% in favour of

> Remain that the long-term tracker polls are

> showing.

>

As far as it's possible to tell with any of these things, I think that sounds like a fair assessment.

[Jenny1]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> As much as I would like it to happen for the

> comedy value of seeing Johnson's face, it's very

> unlikely that there will be a no confidence vote

> as soon as he takes office of PM.

Sadly, I have to agree!

[Jenny1]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Good luck getting mays deal ?with a few t?s

> crossed and i?s dotted? past this level of lunacy

>

>

>

> https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1

> 156012/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-latest-brexit

> -news-priti-patel

This is why I'm so sceptical that any kind of negotiated or defined Brexit will ever happen.

[diable rouge]

keano77 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> As I?ve previously stated on another thread I

> suspect we?ll avert a no deal with a last minute

> fudge - it?s what?s the EU does well. The Sunday

> Times reported this morning that five EU nations

> are in secret talks with Boris?s team.

>

> Simon Coveney, the deputy prime minister of

> Ireland, is in town and was on the Andrew Marr

> show this morning. Despite the usual bluff and

> bluster of EU unity, no change to the Withdrawal

> Agreement etc...

It's quite endearing to see you're still clinging on to and peddling this 3yo Brexiter trope that the EU will fold and 'give us a deal as they need us more than we need them etc etc etc'. Bless...

[Sephiroth]

"the EU Will make Ireland set up a hard border to protect their money"

this was my favourite bit from keano. England and wales vote to take control of their borders completely oblivious to outer countries. then gets huffy when those countries say they need to protect their borders

Imagine No deal but somehow there is no border - imagine the British people "with legitimate concerns about immigration" seeing anyone from EU cross into UK without checks because there is no border

[diable rouge]

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