LTN Discussion

[heartblock]

Idiotic policy...idiotic policy. So not even a group of individuals or an individual, but a policy. This is the difference. Stop making it personal and stop attacking individuals, it ain't classy it's not clever and it's really unpleasant.

Meanwhile my road is very unpleasant every school morning. Any suggestions to stop this idling and polluting traffic?

[kissthisguy]

.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

heartblock Wrote:

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> ED Grove just awful this morning...

...and absolutely nothing at 4pm... 🤔

[ab29]

To hell with LTN and all those who invented it! Throw your neighbours under the bus - what fun!

[Waseley]

Well that is hardly constructive. I'm new to this Forum but I did look back on previous threads and there is a lot of nastiness. Sadly by some active here. Please do try to keep it civil. Sorry if that is patronising but unsure how I can be more subtle

[heartblock]

I'm not sure of your point DKHB. I look out my window and wave to my neighbour across the road in her flat with her two young children, we see a line of idling traffic outside our flats. When we both go out to chat, the air smells of pollution and the traffic idles as far as we can see both ways, from LL to the crossing at Townley. Of course I should take the 5 minute walk up to the point count just outside the health centre - where miraculously traffic disappears before returning the other side.

But thank you for the emoji which indicates 'hmmmm I think you are lying' it's not a very subtle way of calling someone a liar. Again, being personal and gaslighting - rather than considering policy and road conditions.

I asked for a solution for EDG - maybe thinking about that and giving constructive suggestions would be far more helpful than emojis indicating that your neighbours suffering from pollution are lying about their daily situation.

[goldilocks]

Factually though East Dulwich Grove is often clear in the section between MG and Townley from 8:30 onwards and 3-4. That doesn't mean that there aren't high levels at other times. For example the traffic is heavy at 8-8:15 ish.

The thing is, the presence of the schools that is used by people to suggest that the levels of traffic are unacceptable are in fact a significant contributor to this traffic. Whilst lost of families don't drive to school, enough staff and parents do to make a difference on the road infrastructure, especially as the difference between peak gridlock and off peak free flow is in reality so few cars (details available in the initial data provided by Southwark back in 2019 pre OHS). This is not a new problem, there has always been queueing traffic on East Dulwich Grove at this time.

[legalalien]

Out of interest has there been any discussion of phasing the Townley Road lights differently / does the phasing change during the day? Quite often during the day there?s traffic queued along EDG in one or other direction with zero traffic going through from green dale or townley.

[heartblock]

Yes you are correct - the queuing traffic idles at those times, sometimes a little longer and doesn't idle after those times. It directly relates to schools opening. Before LTNs the traffic was busier, but moved at pace and I have never seen idling traffic outside of my house from LL to Townley until the LTNs went in. Saying it is the same is incorrect. I have lived on this road for 35 years and I have no reason to lie and I haven't lost my ability to see, hear and smell.

Just for fun, lets say this very long queue of idling traffic has always existed, then why funnel extra traffic onto an already polluted road?

The problem with this timing, is that this is the time that there is many, many young children walking down EDG and breathing in this pollution. If you remember the Ella case, it was one day of high idling road traffic pollution that exacerbated her condition and was judged to be the trigger of her severe asthma attack.

My concern is that Southwark has not tackled the serious pollution and traffic problems in Dulwich with these LTNs they have just made them worse.

[heartblock]

The junction at Townley was changed years ago, before then even at school rush it wasn't quite so bad coming up to Townley, after it was not great, then after LTNs terrible. Basically EDG traffic has been made worse by successive fiddling around with Townley junction and then LTNs. I'm sure they meant well, I just think the road planners they employed did not have enough expertise in traffic flow dynamics.

I suppose if you know who and why these particular planners were employed, it might be a clue to why such a terrible plan went ahead.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

heartblock Wrote:

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> emojis indicating

> that your neighbours suffering from pollution are

> lying about their daily situation.

I don't think you're lying. I have no idea or interest frankly in you personally, and have never commented on you (apart from here, obviously, as you mentioned it).

I think your posts demonstrate why anecdotal evidence (there was traffic this morning/there wasn't this afternoon) and personal observation (I've never noticed a difference between termtime and holiday traffic/there's always been a dramatic difference) are practically useless. Data is the only useful thing. Unfortunately, there are some here that reject the data because it shows the opposite of what they believe and imply there's a council conspiracy to fabricate it.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

heartblock Wrote:

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> EDG traffic

> has been made worse by successive fiddling around

> with Townley junction and then LTNs...

Nothing to do with a 10% growth in London traffic between 2010 and 2020, a 10% growth jn population in the same period, a 29% growth in PHV (Uber) journeys...? EDG is not some traffic blackspot surrounded by free-flowing autobahns. Everywhere in London is busy.

> I suppose if you know who and why these particular

> planners were employed, it might be a clue to why

> such a terrible plan went ahead.

Be explicit. Don't be coy.

[heartblock]

I think inspecting and critically analysing data is very different from rejecting. So if someone tells me 6789 counts of traffic at a point when a counter was at that point - I'm happy to accept.

If someone tells me 9876 in 2019 - at a point where no traffic counter existed and then tells me that this number is taken from another counter, at another point in a different month and the count was 7342, but they have changed that number, but I should accept this as an accurate count despite it being.

From another point, from a different month and then the number changed.

Then yes I do not accept that as an accurate count.

If you wish to accept that then great.

Also longitudinal observation is a very valid measure of change. 'The benefit of a longitudinal study is that researchers are able to detect developments or changes in the characteristics of the target population at both the group and the individual level. The key here is that longitudinal studies extend beyond a single moment in time. As a result, they can establish sequences of events'

[heartblock]

Summary

? Motorised traffic volumes in London peaked in 1999, and have been falling steadily ever since.

? Annual motorised vehicle kilometres in London in 2011 were 11 per cent below the 1999 peak, despite a 15 per cent increase in London?s population and a 14 per cent increase in total travel (trips) over this period.

? Motorised traffic declined at a faster rate in central London, down by 21 per cent since 2000. The equivalent falls in inner and outer London (where about 97 per cent of London?s motorised traffic occurs) were 13 per cent and 8 per cent respectively.

? In contrast, motorised traffic in Great Britain continued to grow until 2007. Following three years of small declines to motorised traffic levels, GB traffic started to grow again in 2011.

? Since 2000, cars (including minicabs) have decreased ? down by 37 per cent at the Central traffic counting cordon. 13 per cent at the Inner cordon and 2 per cent at the Outer cordon.

? Van flows have increased, up by 20 per cent at the outer cordon, 10 per cent at the inner cordon, and falling by just 3 per cent at the central cordon, as the proportion of other goods vehicles in traffic has declined.

? Cycling has grown dramatically, with an increase of 156 per cent in cyclists entering central London between 2000 and 2010. The overall share of traffic accounted for by cycling rose from 1 per cent in 2000 to just 2 per cent in 2010.

? There is evidence of ?peak spreading? for motorised traffic in London. As demand approaches capacity in the peaks, drivers increasingly elect to travel at off-peak times, although lifestyle factors such as increasing leisure trips and more flexible working will also be a factor. Motorised traffic volumes in the peaks therefore remain stable or fall, and the proportion of daily traffic during off-peak hours increases.

From ROADS TASK FORCE Thematic Analysis TFL https://content.tfl.gov.uk/technical-note-02-what-are-the-main-trends-and-patterns-for-road-traffic-in-london.pdf

[legalalien]

Is there any data that gives an idea of whether there's increased idling/ queuing during the day at the Townley intersection? Traffic count data isn't going to tell you that, I don't think - you could have the same number of cars, but with an interrupted journey where they are held at the lights? I'm not sure if it has been looked at?

[redpost]

heartblock Wrote:

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> Summary

> ? Motorised traffic volumes in London peaked in

> 1999, and have been falling steadily ever since.

> ? Annual motorised vehicle kilometres in London in

> 2011 were 11 per cent below the 1999 peak, despite

> a 15 per cent increase in London?s population and

> a 14 per cent increase in total travel (trips)

> over this period.

> ? Motorised traffic declined at a faster rate in

> central London, down by 21 per cent since 2000.

> The equivalent falls in inner and outer London

> (where about 97 per cent of London?s motorised

> traffic occurs) were 13 per cent and 8 per cent

> respectively.

> ? In contrast, motorised traffic in Great Britain

> continued to grow until 2007. Following three

> years of small declines to motorised traffic

> levels, GB traffic started to grow again in 2011.

> ? Since 2000, cars (including minicabs) have

> decreased ? down by 37 per cent at the Central

> traffic counting cordon. 13 per cent at the Inner

> cordon and 2 per cent at the Outer cordon.

> ? Van flows have increased, up by 20 per cent at

> the outer cordon, 10 per cent at the inner cordon,

> and falling by just 3 per cent at the central

> cordon, as the proportion of other goods vehicles

> in traffic has declined.

> ? Cycling has grown dramatically, with an increase

> of 156 per cent in cyclists entering central

> London between 2000 and 2010. The overall share of

> traffic accounted for by cycling rose from 1 per

> cent in 2000 to just 2 per cent in 2010.

> ? There is evidence of ?peak spreading? for

> motorised traffic in London. As demand approaches

> capacity in the peaks, drivers increasingly elect

> to travel at off-peak times, although lifestyle

> factors such as increasing leisure trips and more

> flexible working will also be a factor. Motorised

> traffic volumes in the peaks therefore remain

> stable or fall, and the proportion of daily

> traffic during off-peak hours increases.

>

> From ROADS TASK FORCE Thematic Analysis TFL

> https://content.tfl.gov.uk/technical-note-02-what-

> are-the-main-trends-and-patterns-for-road-traffic-

> in-london.pdf

heartblock, it's now 2022 not 2012

traffic has been steadily rising since 2009:

https://roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk/regions/6

[heartblock]

It hasn't which is the point Cllr Burgess was making - congestion is dangerous in terms of pollution - but of course it might only register as less cars passing a point. This is also why we need NOx and PM peak measures too. We need to know what these CYP are breathing in at these times. We need to study changes in health.

I would love GSTT to monitor CYP at Charter, Alleyn's and JAGs with spirometry and other indexes of health - and compare to pollutant levels and modes of transport/journey routes to school, it would be an interesting longitudinal study.

I might speak to my NHS/Uni colleagues.

[heartblock]

Yes it's interesting isn't it - I found another study (which is why various studies should be critically analysed) that gives granularity to the data. It seems private car use goes up during the so called good times of low petrol costs and low inflation and drops during high petrol cost and inflation. So the linear measurement in both studies is a little simplistic.

Also benchmarking messes it up and traffic growth is measured on a few chosen roads and as an estimate, so as with all research one must understand how data is collected and manipulated.

This is interesting though, it is from 2013, but I wonder what the increase in petrol prices and inflation will do to private car ownership and miles travelled?

https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-committees/transport/POST-briefing-on-peak-car.pdf

[Metallic]

I still have no understanding of the stats showing fewer cars in central EDG whilst at either end the stats show car numbers have gone up. So where do they go? Cloud Cuckoo Land?

[heartblock]

And why do I mention benchmarking, because this exercise in 2019 changed the figures in London by 31.6%, so added this to "These data have been used to recalibrate minor road traffic estimates since 2010 and to produce new benchmark estimates for 2019" - so up to 2010 in previous data the amount of traffic was measured as declining in London, until benchmarking added 31.6% to this data from 2010.

So this data is skewed. Valid, but needs to read with this additional re-applying onto data only from 2010.

[heartblock]

Metallic - this is the EDG Bermuda Triangle where cars travelling from LL to DV disappear and then re-appear. It's the magic unicorn of evaporating traffic we were all told about.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

heartblock Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------.

>

> From ROADS TASK FORCE Thematic Analysis TFL

> https://content.tfl.gov.uk/technical-note-02-what-

> are-the-main-trends-and-patterns-for-road-traffic-

> in-london.pdf

That was 11 years ago, bud. Uber was still a small limo service in San Francisco then. The world - and London traffic - has changed since then.

[goldilocks]

no one other than you is suggesting that.

There are several points here:

1. the 2019 count is an actual count - not extrapolated, not made up. The data supplied is inconsistent as to whether there were 2 counts or 1 which is unhelpful, but at least 1 count is 'actual'. My understanding had been that the September was actual too!

2. The point is not that traffic 'disappeared' but that in only counting near lordship lane and near townley road, it didn't take account of cars joining from Melbourne, Derwent or Elsie.

3. Comparing an actual count near the hospital site from 2019 to an actual count now shows that vehicles have reduced in that section. Its not magic - just looking at a map and understanding where traffic might have gone previously and now.

heartblock Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Metallic - this is the EDG Bermuda Triangle where

> cars travelling from LL to DV disappear and then

> re-appear. It's the magic unicorn of evaporating

> traffic we were all told about.

[heartblock]

Thanks bud, so Uber has dramatically caused an increase on EDG at school run hours. Ah ok, that explains it.

2019 wasn't an actual count using the pneumatic tubing counter that appeared at this point in 2021 but was not there before. As I say the the Parliament research paper expresses the granularity of economic impact on traffic/private car use in London and is worth a read by those who can be bothered to understand the complexity.

Traffic starting at LL travels down a road and cannot 'escape' until it gets to Townley (if open' or DV end). How do the closed roads of Elsie, Melbourne and Derwent make this traffic disappear. Do explain, because that is beyond my brain.

[Jenijenjen]

Because neither is it being added to with traffic from Melbourne, Elsie and Derwent as it was before they became LTNs so the amount of traffic along the central section of EDG has decreased.