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It would be worth asking the question when you go to visit the schools you are putting down, as to whether they think they have capacity to take a bulge class. Have they taken one in the last couple of years for instance, which may mean they are 'off' the list this year - unless they have a lot of space, such as at a school like Kilmorie (Forest Hill, but could still be relevant) which bulged to 4 form entry this year.
they don't know. Fairlawn didn't choose to bulge, they were told to by Lewisham council in July. They don't want to this year (don't have the capacity as they only have one hall in which to do all lunches, games, assemblies) but if Lewisham say they have to then they will. But Lyndhurst, for example, seem pretty definite that they won't as they have building works going on.

I think trying to second guess the system is impossible. The best advice I was given by the (then) head of Fairlawn when we were applying a few years ago, was to put your absolute top choices first, (then if you don't get in first round, you'll still be on the list for a late bulge as happened this year), and follow with the ones you think are likely. The schools don't get given the information about where you put them on the list - they just apply the entry criteria to the list and offer places to everyone that meet the criteria, in order. Then the LEA allocate the places for you at the school you were offered a place highest up the list.


Of course, you also need to bear in mind the reality of distances - if you live on the North side of East Dulwich for instance, no amount of bulging will get you a place at Fairlawn (say).

Does anyone know from previous years how much difference a bulge class makes to admissions for a very popular school such as Fairlawn or Horniman? How much further did the furthest distance become from which the furthest away child was offered a place?

Really nobody knows.


The last bulge at Horniman was in 2011. As far as I recall (without googling it) the distance went out to about 1500 metres (about Friern Road/across to the nearside of Nunhead/parts of upper Sydenham) instead of the usual couple of hundred metres. Its all relative though, because that bulge in istelf has created lots more siblings who will take up some of the extra spaces in next year's bulge. It seems to vary quite a bit on sibling places from year to year in any event. Given you have six choices, I'd definitely be consdering putting down a bulging school if you think you are in with a chance (although also bear in mind that every one else will as well!).

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