Trying to buy a house in this area is near impossible

[miga]

.

[stecoward101]

Kidkruger - This was not an assumption this was a fact. N&P are offering a 10 year fixed mortgage for 3.89%. Which is an amazing low rate for borrowing.

If you took this deal I would streach your borrowing as far as you can (obviously not to a rate where you could not pay the mortgage if you are a month out of work) as historically (since end of WW2) london house prices have risen 4.9% per year.

As London is growing faster than ever before and it is expected to have an addtional 2m people by 2025 which is the same population as two Birminghams. This combined with the supply/demand laws of economics (there are currently 12 buyers for every one property available)would suggest that house prices are going to continually rise.

[Loz]

stecoward101 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Kidkruger - This was not an assumption this was a fact. N&P are offering a 10 year fixed mortgage

> for 3.89%. Which is an amazing low rate for borrowing.

But there is a huge difference between taking a 10 year fix and assuming that other rates will stay that way for the next 10 years.

[Jo'sEnglish]

miga Wrote:

>

> can anyone tell me the rough boundaries of the

> corbett estate; i see it used a lot but very

> elastically. i thought it was "the other side" (by

> which i presume is meant the south side).

It's the south side of the south circular. I think the centre is around Abbotshall playing fields and then the roads around there (with Scottish names!). Not sure of exact boundaries... When I say 'the other side' of Catford I mean the West side (west of the A21, sorry it makes sense in my mind!!!)where it always seems a lot more hectic. I saw some lovely flats around Blythe Vale when I was looking but just couldn't face Catford being the closet place to go to the shops and how busy the south circular is there. Although Blythe Hill fields are lovely so maybe close the there would be ok.

[JohnL]

N&P owned by Yorkshire - and they have a 10 year fix too

However - be sure you're not too much of a free spirit as ...

"And to break out of the mortgage early, the fees are hefty ? for the first three

years this is set at seven per cent of the amount borrowed. "

..

"the deal is portable and so can be taken with you to a new property ? but the lender

will need to approve the move at the time and there is no guarantee the lender will

be able to meet any change in your requirements"

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2314715/Yorkshire-BS-relaunches-10-year-fixed-mortgage-comes-fee-free.html

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> stecoward101 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Kidkruger - This was not an assumption this was

> a fact. N&P are offering a 10 year fixed mortgage

> > for 3.89%. Which is an amazing low rate for

> borrowing.

>

> But there is a huge difference between taking a 10

> year fix and assuming that other rates will stay

> that way for the next 10 years.

[Saila]

very interesting thread.

I've been trying to upsize from a property to the next 'level up' for garden and school malarkey.

We've been gazumped or dumped (3x in the last 5 months) but not due to another buyer, just seller greed and/or chain breaking. Suffice to say 'greed-house' has still not sold (2 months on) at the owner's new asking price (promised to them by a rouge agent who promised they could get him more).

anyway - we have decided to cash in and rent. population growth etc does not push prices up by 25% in two years. That's investors chasing yield, European's chasing safe havens etc. Not that there's any yield in Victorian properties. frankly the valuation on yield makes zero sense.

I'll probably be very wrong and kick myself in 12 month's time. But hey ho, i'll take the money and have a bigger garden for my kids in a nicer area via rental.

I haven't rented since I was student. weird.

[EPB]

Why sell up?

Why not find tenants for your present house - that'd pay the rent on your new place, and you'd still have the equity in your present house intact.

[bosie]

Saila Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> very interesting thread.

>

> I've been trying to upsize from a property to the

> next 'level up' for garden and school malarkey.

>

> We've been gazumped or dumped (3x in the last 5

> months) but not due to another buyer, just seller

> greed and/or chain breaking. Suffice to say

> 'greed-house' has still not sold (2 months on) at

> the owner's new asking price (promised to them by

> a rouge agent who promised they could get him

> more).

>

> anyway - we have decided to cash in and rent.

> population growth etc does not push prices up by

> 25% in two years. That's investors chasing yield,

> European's chasing safe havens etc. Not that

> there's any yield in Victorian properties. frankly

> the valuation on yield makes zero sense.

>

> I'll probably be very wrong and kick myself in 12

> month's time. But hey ho, i'll take the money and

> have a bigger garden for my kids in a nicer area

> via rental.

>

> I haven't rented since I was student. weird.

I did the same thing about 18 months ago - kept getting dumped/gazumped and decided that I would be a more attractive proposition if I were chain free and could move quickly. So I sold and rented for 6 months. Well my pot of money from the sale was frozen in time, however prices continued to rise. So the 3 bed house I was looking for quickly became out of my reach and I ended up buying a two bed house for the same price as the three beds I was looking at originally. Luckily I did as I wouldn't even have been able to buy a two bed house now and would be looking at flats instead.

I would definitely not sell to rent again!

[Saila]

agree - I cant rent my house and justify catchment for schools. it's verging on illegal.

I wont lie on my death bed worrying about money, but I will worry about doing the best I can for my kids.

so schools win here and we need a good school by jan 15 deadline for applications.

if your primary residence is not your home, you risk everything.

let house prices go up. but they wont continue at this rate. at least that's what i'm banking on cos it's insane.

my father has bought and sold property all his life, and he's a wise old nut. he says current market reminds him of 'early 70s' when things got a bit crazy.

it is crazy. it's short term investment like a stock/equity going up too fast, too quickly. it is not need nor is it backed up by wealth/yield etc. which ever metric you use, currently house prices are well out of kilter.

edit to say - 18 months ago, house prices were 20% cheaper. I don't look back, but forwards. will the market go up 20% again from here?

second edit to say - the property we are renting is valued at 40x yearly income. 20x is long term average, ie the price of the property should be 50% cheaper than current value...

[motorbird83]

Are you sure about that? 20x income ratio is equivalent to a 5 percent yield which is about where most of London's buy to let yields are.

If the extorionate rent thread is anything to go by, 1,600 a month for a 2 bed flat (19,200 a year) that you can buy for maybe 420k these days would be a yield of 4.6 percent so just barely above your 20x ratio...

[zarataylorjewellery]

I think this has only happened in the last year as I struggled to sell my late Mothers house in Cornflower Terrace but eventually sold it at the beginning of this year for a lower price than if I sold it now. I wish I waited!

[maxxi]

EPB Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Why sell up?

> Why not find tenants for your present house -

> that'd pay the rent on your new place, and you'd

> still have the equity in your present house

> intact.

Until you want to sell, but then you can just throw your tenants out with a month's notice if you've played the short-term lease card correctly can't you? I mean, hey, it's their fault for renting.

ETA: For some people a rented property is a home - not an investment opportunity or a short-term ladder-climbing solution.

[Saila]

Flats may have that yield, esp ex-council flats, poss higher. However, victorian properties/houses lost their yield years ago.

There is no return on them through rental, but huge in terms of capital, so I guess that's why ppl won't sell right now as doesn't really matter if they are only getting 2.5% yield (ie what we will be paying) if the price of the house goes up by 10% each year. Although that would be subject to tax.

[Girl82]

OP - I feel your pain. Myself and my partner managed to scrape enough cash together to buy a small flat in SE15, but if we were buying now we wouldn't be able to afford anything in this postcode (except perhaps an ex-LA flat, but our bank wouldn't lend on those).

While we would be gutted to leave the Peckham/ED area, if we ever want anything more than a one-bed, we'll be forced to move further out. Would anyone recommend Bromley as a place to live? I noticed it's only about 15 minutes on the train into Victoria, and seems to have a more regular train service than Peckham! Plus it's obviously far cheaper than this area...

[Alex K]

@Salla: "i'm however in the negative camp (I see house price rises as negative).. primarily because, it feels like the government are trying to inflate their way out of debt, and they see house prices as a sacrifice in that process. i.e. they don't mind a bubble in house prices, cos ultimately that's a weird daily-mail vote winner anyway - so not a huge sacrifice!

"but they *need* to get out of debt... so inflation may be their quick fix option"

Yes. Debase the currency, and debt incurred in good money will be paid in bad. Substantial loss in value of cash; therefore put what you have into land / property, and hold on. That reasoning -- and the corollary, that any and all pension promises will be broken as "unaffordable" -- prompted us in the winter of 2007 - 2008 to put everything that we had into a second property, despite all sorts of qualms about becoming landlords. That rent will now be our pension. We don't trust the government, or our employers, to provide one.

[LondonMix]

I'm not sure I follow.... Overall inflation is 2.7%. I think the government is insituting gradual stealth cuts by not increasing spending in line with inflation but I'm not sure I see the link between house price growth (which really is only significant in London / SE) and the government debt.

Can you explain a bit more what your thinking is? I'm not being sarcastic, I'd like to know!

[ratty]

We left for Hayes in Bromley in April. Sold a two bed, bought a 4 bed. The commute is fine really although a bit pricey! Quieter, better schools, less to do but as we have got 2 kids we have no life of our own anyway!

One thing I have noticed is that the new school my son is at are quite shocked at the level of literacy he is at for year one. Standards seem very different in the outskirts than in ED as my son was considered a high performer at his old school. I guess this is a good thing....?????

There are pros and cons of both, but we had no future in East Dulwich and were starting to feel that we did not fit the demographic any more.

Would I move back to ED?? Not in this life. Quality of life in the burbs is just so much better!

[LondonMix]

That's not surprising regarding schools. London schools are the best in the country by a significant margin. That's one of the reasons more families are staying in London instead of moving to the home counties which of course only exacerbates the housing shortage in the capitol.

[Earl Aelfheah]

I think ratty was saying that standards are higher outside the Capital no?

[LondonMix]

Ah, yes you are right and that is surprising. Although I suppose it's hard to generalise about two schools.

[miga]

.

[Alex K]

@LondonMix -- thanks for asking.

If your wealth is in cash, it earns nothing, and inflation gallops ahead of you.

If your wealth is in savings accounts, it earns a pittance, a i g a o y.

If your wealth is in an asset that rises in value as inflation makes a pound buy ever less -- then you have a hope of staying abreast of inflation. It may throw off a little income as you age. It may even, when sold, pay for a few years in a non-abusive care home.

Perhaps house-price growth reflects, in part, the perception that no government will keep its promises -- look at the shifty chicanery of private-public partnerships! -- and that it's safest to, as Will Rogers said:

Buy land. They ain't makin' any more of it.

[dirty tree]

*like*

[v_the_gelfling]

The schools thing is interesting, this is the main reason I know of for people leaving London, yet you say you think it is better here?

[HopOne]

Yes, LondonMix is correct. An FT report found this, see BBC story:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-19151471

For how long that will be sustained is another matter. A lot of this was down to London Challenge, the funding for which has been cut.