House prices start to fall

[eastdulwichproperty]

At long last things appear to be getting more sensible. KFH put this house on Zenoria Street for sale at ?1.25m in June, reduced by ?100k in late June and now further reduced by another ?100k to ?1.05m, a huge 16% off. Anyone looking for a house I'd suggest waiting 6 months if you can, the falls are likely to continue, just yesterday RICS reported that surveyors in London are expecting house prices to fall in the next 3 months. If you are interested in a house a top tip is to look at it on Zoopla, this shows the history of when it was listed together with any prices reductions. Thankfully the days of people offering over asking prices have ended and those mad open house days are a lot less frequent. See attachment

[Robert Poste's Child]

Dear God I hope you're right.

[AbDabs]

There is a three month gap between an actual sale and publishing of land registry data. Add to that the time it takes to sell a house and you can expect at least 6 months between offer price and reality. That's pretty much what's happened here; Spring madness sent offer prices rocketing but only a few people were really that mad to pay the money. Now the RICS has analysed the actual data coming through the truth is out. But it looks a lot better to suggest that prices are 'coming down' than admit that they fell for the idiotic offer prices. I wouldn't be too hopeful of a dramatic reduction just less silly prices in the window

[LD929]

A lot of 4 bed houses have been sitting on the market.

[Jeremy]

KFH have previous regarding over-valuing (to get it on their books) and then dropping the price before their lock-in period ends. Although I think you're right about the madness coming to an end.

[Mustard]

Had a look at the details on that house. The garden appears tiny, only a patio style, so that makes the house too top heavy for such a garden. You could find a 4/5 bed for much less money than original asking price. Also, very close to traffic noise and pollution, and difficult to park.

[eastdulwichproperty]

Good point Jeremy, anyone looking to sell shouldn't just go for the agent that says they will market for the highest figure, some agents are more realistic than others and I'd certainly choose to deal with the sensible ones. Once a property has sat around for a while buyers instinctively think that there might be something wrong with it.

[sophiesofa]

We were told by a local agent that in East Dulwich the open day madness is over and prices are generally stable, so not going up or down at the moment.

[Jeremy]

Mustard Wrote:

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> too top heavy

That's the problem with all these houses in ED that have had the two room loft conversion. You're still left with 700sqft of living space and a small garden.

[pebbles]

We've just sold through Winkworth and I have to say they've been fab throughout. Very realistic and honest and prices and what we should accept. Wouldn't hesitate to use them again :)

[Louisa]

The trouble with all these crazy prices is they actively encourage the media to talk more about it, and so add fuel to the house bubble flames. See below:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2684674/Is-house-really-worth-650-000-Scruffy-property-Peckham-goes-market-eye-watering-price.html

Louisa.

[eastdulwichproperty]

Houses are a market like any other investment and largely based on sentiment and confidence, once the press start reporting negative news on house prices this will snowball and the cycle downwards will be self fulfilling. Unfotunately there are so many people with a vested interest in prices staying high/rising it appears the press are reluctant to publish anything but good news on house prices, you have to seek very hard to pick out the negative articles

[jalongy]

"

[NewDad]

The monthly readings are a bit misleading, as the month to month swings are usually volatile.

The long term trends continue upwards as per the following articles:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10955673/Halifax-UK-house-prices-show-little-sign-of-slowing-down.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10955074/UK-house-prices-to-jump-35pc-in-six-years.html

London house prices have no reason to "crash" for some time, and anyone holding out for such event is a little misguided. There remains a massive demand/supply imbalance, interest rates are likely to remain stable (and predictable) for a while, and employment rates (and confidence) are improving.

Slower growth is still decent growth relative to the past 12 months.

[Jeremy]

NewDad Wrote:

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> There remains a massive demand/supply imbalance

Sure, there is demand... but is there demand for ordinary houses in ordinary neighbourhoods with asking prices of ?1M? Is there demand for 1 bed flats in scruffy areas priced at ?300K?

[ed_pete]

KFH don't look like they've reduced this one @?2M

http://www.kfh.co.uk/residential-properties/houses-for-sale-london/houses-in-east-dulwich-se22-elsie-road/2102561/

[eastdulwichproperty]

ed_pete Wrote:

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> KFH don't look like they've reduced this one @?2M

>

> http://www.kfh.co.uk/residential-properties/houses

> -for-sale-london/houses-in-east-dulwich-se22-elsie

> -road/2102561/

This is truely the most ridiculous valuation in SE22, overvalued by at least 30%. Of course the market will decide, but I doubt they'll get any serious viewings. Good luck to them for trying it though, if it doesn't sell then whoever did the valuation is going to end up looking a bit silly.

[mikeb]

I think this one is a strong contender as well

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30981639.html

I can't quite imagine who would buy this at this price - they need to appreciate the architecture yet probably have 1 or 2 children, yet not require any outside space

[eastdulwichproperty]

NewDad Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The monthly readings are a bit misleading, as the

> month to month swings are usually volatile.

>

> The long term trends continue upwards as per the

> following articles:

>

> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10955

> 673/Halifax-UK-house-prices-show-little-sign-of-sl

> owing-down.html

>

> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance

> /houseprices/10955074/UK-house-prices-to-jump-35pc

> -in-six-years.html

>

> London house prices have no reason to "crash" for

> some time, and anyone holding out for such event

> is a little misguided. There remains a massive

> demand/supply imbalance, interest rates are likely

> to remain stable (and predictable) for a while,

> and employment rates (and confidence) are

> improving.

>

> Slower growth is still decent growth relative to

> the past 12 months.

NewDad

I'd disagree, I was one of those people out there who earlier in the year was panicked into looking at things at silly prices. Whereas back then I was prepared to pay ?1.2m for a 4 bed average house I have now realised that at that level things are now around the ?1m mark in terms of offers accepted. Those 20-30 groups of people who were fighting for space to get a look in have all disappeared. These are not just my observations/comments, even estate agents are encouraging offers of ?1m and less on stuff on at ?1.2m. Article below gives a good summary

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2687161/More-buyer-caution-house-prices-country-start-cool.html

[jimbo1964]

There are some really horrible houses under offer for ?700k +

[ruffers]

Reduction in a speculative asking price is not the same as an actual reduction in prices though is it?

[Cedges]

The garden is 37' - the floorplan doesn't represent it in full but the dimensions are stated.

Looks lovely to me, price aside.

Mustard Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Had a look at the details on that house. The

> garden appears tiny, only a patio style, so that

> makes the house too top heavy for such a garden.

> You could find a 4/5 bed for much less money than

> original asking price. Also, very close to

> traffic noise and pollution, and difficult to

> park.

[Louisa]

Surely the aesthetics of a property are not the underlying key factor here. I would suggest that land is the main cause for these astronomical rises. Good location, close to the centre of a booming city where housing or land with permission to build at least, is at a premium, therefore encouraging foreign investment into an already competitive market. Anyone who thinks prices long-term will fall is hugely mistaken. The facts as stated are that land for building is scarce thus hyper inflating the prices of existing property for sale in a city where demand far outstrips supply. In the words of Yazz, "The only way is up".

Louisa.

[Mustard]

Cedges Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The garden is 37' - the floorplan doesn't

> represent it in full but the dimensions are

> stated.

>

> Looks lovely to me, price aside.

>

> Mustard Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Had a look at the details on that house. The

> > garden appears tiny, only a patio style, so

> that

> > makes the house too top heavy for such a garden.

>

> > You could find a 4/5 bed for much less money

> than

> > original asking price. Also, very close to

> > traffic noise and pollution, and difficult to

> > park.

The garden doesn't look like anything children could play in, or kick a ball about it, even if it is 37 feet. Wonder if they measured it from the side return. There isn't any grass. It's still tiny compared to the amount of rooms in the house.

[eastdulwichproperty]

Louisa Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Surely the aesthetics of a property are not the

> underlying key factor here. I would suggest that

> land is the main cause for these astronomical

> rises. Good location, close to the centre of a

> booming city where housing or land with permission

> to build at least, is at a premium, therefore

> encouraging foreign investment into an already

> competitive market. Anyone who thinks prices

> long-term will fall is hugely mistaken. The facts

> as stated are that land for building is scarce

> thus hyper inflating the prices of existing

> property for sale in a city where demand far

> outstrips supply. In the words of Yazz, "The only

> way is up".

>

> Louisa.

That is what they thought in japan in the late eighties and look what happened there. Changes to tax on foreign owners and the possibility of a mansion tax may well make a big difference. A big part of the problem is that people are buying houses as investments rather than places to live, speculative investment has pushed up the prices, this could be potentialy be their downfall as well