House prices start to fall

[GinaG3]

I can't see prices falling. Our 2 bed rental was valued once in November and then 7 times in the last few weeks! Between Nov 13 and now, with no works or change to the property it has increased in value by ?70k.

[Sophron]

The only numbers that count are what people are prepared to pay AND what prices people are prepared to accept to sell.

In the long run I'd be suprised if prices fall away dramatically, they might not go up by much for a while but the market is still bullish in the short/medium term.

[edcam]

The general feeling among agents seems to be that prices have levelled off in recent weeks. People have been asking for overinflated prices and those sales have stalled now and it's likely to stay that way for a bit.

[Blackcurrant]

Prices can go down as well as up - they don't simply plateau when the market is weak. It's a question of supply and demand. Supply has been rising since new year, while new buyer registrations have fallen sharply in the last two months. It doesn't matter whether sellers hold out for the values that properties were achieving back in March, as market value is set by those who have to sell, not by those who fail to sell or don't need to sell.

The slowdown seems to be happening from the top down, with prime central London weakest and areas well outsiders London still strong. Whether the weak market ripples outwards from London remains to be seen.

[Otta]

edcam Wrote:

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> The general feeling among agents seems to be that

> prices have levelled off in recent weeks. People

> have been asking for overinflated prices

The agents feel that people have been asking for overinflated prices? Wonder where the people got that idea.

[Jeremy]

I'm sure things have slowed down, but you shouldn't try to draw any real conclusions in the middle of the summer holidays.

And FFS... if an estate agent comes round and tells you he'll get X for your flat... it doesn't mean it's actually true!!

[Angusvanfrehley]

MrBen Wrote:

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> Angus van f = estate agents.

>

> Prices are falling and the London crash is not too

> far off.

Not an estate agent, am a session musican actually. Was just stating that there are still people who are willing to pay what I think is stupid money for property.

[edcam]

Otta Wrote:

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> The agents feel that people have been asking for

> overinflated prices? Wonder where the people got

> that idea.

There's one house we'd like to look at that's on for a ridiculous amount of money. Estate agent says they valued it lower but the vendor refuses to drop the price, there it sits, unsold.

[Blackcurrant]

edcam Wrote:

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Estate agent says they valued it lower but the vendor refuses to drop the price, there it sits, unsold.

The agent is probably lying. They ALL overvalue to get the instruction, especially the ones who claim they don't.

[edcam]

Blackcurrant Wrote:

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> edcam Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> The agent is probably lying. They ALL overvalue to

> get the instruction, especially the ones who claim

> they don't.

I'm not so sure. They don't really want us to look at it (they have a much, much nicer house on for the same money.) They say there's no point looking at it until the owner returns from abroad and they've spoken to him about the current market. I don't see how this would work as a scam.

I'm also finding that they don't ALL overvalue at the moment. We've had 3 valuations, all wildly different and those at the lower end saying that a few months ago they'd have agreed with the higher valuations but not now.

[Blackcurrant]

Fair enough. I guess sellers are taking longer to adjust to the falling market than agents. It's still possible all your valuations are over the mark though.

I remember the market turning in 2007-2008 as I was selling and buying at that time. Late 2007 had a similar feel to the current market - very unclear picture, mixed messages from the press, houses getting stuck unsold. I don't think we're in for a rerun of 2008's disastrous crash when buyers completely evaporated, but I've no doubt prices have fallen.

I guess what happens next depends on interest rates. If they put them up to choke off a property boom outside London, London prices drop a bit more steeply.

[JohnL]

Carney has now said interest rates will be more dependant on wage growth.

[Blackcurrant]

Absolutely, they're using every trick in the book to get wages rising as it's the best way to erode the mountain of debt the UK is groaning under. However, Carney would also use a rate rise to choke off a house price bubble outside London if his "macroprudential tools" fail to achieve that. The last thing they want is rising household debt due to a house price bubble while wages remain stagnant - it would lead to another crash and banking crisis. I doubt rates will rise this year though, and once we're into 2015 a pre-election rate rise gets difficult because can have political consequences.

House prices currently falling in London but motoring on outside. It's an interesting situation.

[pinecone]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11040337/Homeowners-slash-house-prices-in-largest-ever-summer-sale.html

[thecaptain]

Taking a look at what they are selling in Dulwich it really is the 'last turkey in shop', but still horrifically overvalued.

[Blackcurrant]

London prices rose about 20% up to spring but have fallen about 10% in the last two months. By the end of the year the last year's gains will be wiped out.

Expensive locations falling hardest - Kensington, Fulham, Hammersmith, Wandsworth all down 7% in a single month according to Rightmove. The old rule that good locations hhold value has been turned on its head.

Base rate very unlikely to rise now prices have stalled outside London too.

[Sazzle30]

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/

To buy now or to wait that is the question

[????]

to drain ones arteries into a warm bath after half a bottle of Brandy or a 2 second plummet off Beachy Head, that's the question

[Helina101]

London house prices have no reason to "crash" for some time, and anyone holding out for such event is a little misguided. There remains a massive demand/supply imbalance, interest rates are likely to remain stable (and predictable)

[northdulmum]

UK inflation cooling more than forecast so rates likely to remain low for longer.

Plus there's the election...

[rjr]

There's so much moaning about estate agents.

They're just a business like anyone else. Trying to maximise profits for each client that passes through their door.

Why not moan about tesco, bp, British gas, who are doing this at the same time as destroying the environment.

Anyway, for what it's worth we bought our house on crystal palace road through Kfh and they were polite, knowledgable and very responsive. Of course you get a small pinch of estate agent bs but that's basically unavoidable.

All in all a positive experience and we would definitely use them again...

[LondonMix]

People moan about estate agents in this country because they are dishonest. Had a horrific experience with Winkworth who lied both to the vendor and us. Realtors in the US aren't vilified but they are also licensed

[nxjen]

northdulmum Wrote:

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> UK inflation cooling more than forecast so rates

> likely to remain low for longer.

>

> Plus there's the election...

A lot of the electorate would like to see interest rates rise.

[Mustard]

rjr Wrote:

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> There's so much moaning about estate agents.

>

> They're just a business like anyone else. Trying

> to maximise profits for each client that passes

> through their door.

>

> Why not moan about tesco, bp, British gas, who are

> doing this at the same time as destroying the

> environment.

>

> Anyway, for what it's worth we bought our house on

> crystal palace road through Kfh and they were

> polite, knowledgable and very responsive. Of

> course you get a small pinch of estate agent bs

> but that's basically unavoidable.

>

> All in all a positive experience and we would

> definitely use them again...

Buying a house is different from selling a house. You didn't have much choice except to use them if that was who the vendor was selling through and you wanted that house.

[Too Good To Be True]

Estate Agents in the US are multiples more expensive than in the UK. The buyer has to pay a fee too.

I much prefer the cheap competitive system we have here, even if it does mean you have to put up with clowns.