General Election 2015

[numbers]

Louisa Wrote:

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> Absolutely am, I guess another big question is do

> the 'shy tory' votes come from UKIP voters and

> vice versa. Estimates suggest 40% of UKIP

> supporters traditionally vote tory, will a general

> election bring those people back into the fold and

> in what numbers?

>

> Louisa.

Don't forget that there are Labour supporters who vote UKIP too, & plenty of em. There are also working-class Tories, though they don't seem to attract as much coverage as the toffs.

Wish Quids were here to cut through some of the crap on this thread (not referring to your post Louisa btw) with his acerbic wit and astute observations. Talking of which, you let that 200 get away Maxxi!!! :)

[miga]

.

[Blah Blah]

But the electoral system still favours the two biggest parties. This is why whilst UKIP are targetting 10 seats, the data analysts predict only 1 or 2 gains. On past data, the conservatives tend to do slightly better than expected and labour slighty worse than expected. So the prediction is that the conservatives will have most seats but won't be able to form a bigger coalition than labour. The SNP are going to be a huge factor in any coalition and in no terms will ally with the Tories. It's certainly an interesting time.

[Louisa]

Labour has a slightly easier path to forming a minority government with informal support from left leaning parties this is true. However, as an old timer I can recall numerous elections where this has happened and the tories always have pulled it back in the final days even hours of a campaign. If the tories poll close to 290 for example, and the liberals hold on to around 30 seats, Cameron's path to forming a government becomes far easier with informal support from the 8/9 unionists in Northern Ireland and the 2/3 UKIP people. It would of course be a very loose supply for votes. It really does depend on which of the two main parties can get those extra 10/15 seats to give them more options. If you look at the 'ultra marginal' polling, the Tories are out performing Labour in 12/15 seats by 1 to 4 points(within margin of error), which would change the outcome substantially.

Louisa.

[miga]

.

[Blah Blah]

But polls in marginals are never that accurate. Remember the year John Major won? Lot's of polls put Labour ahead in marginals by a mile, but on the day it just didn't happen. That's because often, what people say in a poll and what they actually do on the day is a different thing.

Many think the best indicators are the bookmakers odds. The lose money if they get it wrong. Right now they have Miliband and Cameron neck and neck, but when it comes to a coalition they put Miliband ahead. But pretty much all the analysts and polls etc are now predicting no overall majority, even with a coalition deal.

[Blah Blah]

Blair did the same thing miga. He engratiated himself with cool brit pop! Remember when Oasis went to a gathering at no.10?

Edited to say that Brand is a smart move. Brand has 9 million twitter followers alone.

[maxxi]

numbers Wrote:

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> Talking of which, you let that 200

> get away Maxxi!!! :)

Under the present Government it is quite apparent that not only was this not a 200 but could and would never be a 200 and only fiddling the books makes it seem otherwise; under Labour of course it would be claimed as a 300 which would turn out to be 150 plus a lot of owed posts that might never materialise.

I put my 'x' against the party I intend voting for and thus applied the Plaid Cymru Welsh vigesimal counting system which only made it 13 so I am exonerated.

[Otta]

MrBen Wrote:

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> Seems to me that pretty much nobody on this forum

> will admit to voting for anyone other than Labour

> or Lib Dems (with a token Green here and there).

> Anyone brave enough to own up to voting Tory or

> UKIP this time round?

Tarot has been quite open about his or her intention to vote UKIP. I believe they have a policy to ban gay relationships in soaps.

[Earl Aelfheah]

The Tories campaign seems to be predicated on their 'superb' handling of the economy. It's bizarre. An economy that has been virtually flat lining over their entire term. They choked off growth when they took office by talking down the economy and cutting spending, instead of filling the void left by the retreat of private investment. We've seen a small amount of growth since they effectively hit the pause button on deficit reduction, but otherwise it's been a decade of stagnation. The reality is that the conservatives are ideologically wedded to shrinking the state at any economic cost.

[Earl Aelfheah]

...that said, Labour (rather depressingly) aren't offering an alternative economic vision.

[Jeremy]

Yeah I think what we've seen is just the natural bottoming out - and eventual gentle upswing - of the economic cycle, rather than the result of any government intervention.

But y'know... there's probably no government in the world that wouldn't try to take credit.

[Earl Aelfheah]

It's more than that though. Their policies have actively harmed recovery.

[Jeremy]

Not sure that can really be demonstrated. But certainly Obama's stimulus package has appeared more effective than Tory austerity.

[JohnL]

Otta Wrote:

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> MrBen Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Seems to me that pretty much nobody on this

> forum

> > will admit to voting for anyone other than

> Labour

> > or Lib Dems (with a token Green here and there).

>

> > Anyone brave enough to own up to voting Tory or

> > UKIP this time round?

>

>

> Tarot has been quite open about his or her

> intention to vote UKIP. I believe they have a

> policy to ban gay relationships in soaps.

To be fair they do have a transgender ex candidate

.... who is now urging all UKIP voters to vote

Tory tactically.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Clearly it's a matter of debate. But I think a strong case for the negative impact of austerity policies on economic recovery can be made. Just saw this for example... Nobel prize-winning, Princeton Economist Paul Krugman on the 'austerity delusion'

http://www.theguardian.com/?/?/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

[Earl Aelfheah]

.... but any way you cut it - for the Tories to base their whole re-election campaign around supposed economic success seems to me, a bit shaky.

[Jeremy]

JohnL Wrote:

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> To be fair they do have a transgender ex

> candidate

> .... who is now urging all UKIP voters to vote

> Tory tactically.

I don't think Kelly Maloney is a candidate this time round.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Just seen the 'Millibrand' interview - went very well for Ed in my opinion.

[uncleglen]

I think rahrahrah has nailed his/her colours to the mast.

The thought of condemning even more people to a life on some sort of benefits has always counted Labour well and truly out for me(as in every other election I've been eligible to vote in). I'd like to know where all the extreme lefties have gone since the Militant exposure years ago- I expect they learned their lesson back then and have secreted themselves into the Labour enclosure.

[Otta]

Well I was quite interested to attend hustings in Penge this evening, only to find it was cancelled. Not sure why, but found this

http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/12910415.UPDATE__Another_Sydenham_and_Forest_Hill_hustings_cancelled_due_to_presence_of__far_right_wing__candidate/

Which is the same constituency, so possibly similar reasons.

[Loz]

That annoys me. It's like "yeah, we really believe in democracy, except we disagree with your opinions". It's just McCarthyism from a another direction.

Give him a platform and then rip his miserable arguments to shreds - if you can't do that, then you really shouldn't be standing for parliament.

[Otta]

I agree Loz. It's why it was a good thing to have Nock Griffin on QT a few years ago.

[Louisa]

I certainly will not be voting for Miliband. He's like a rebel without cause. A Stalinist before communism came into being. The guy is ok, don't get me wrong, he's just not a potential prime minister. He lacks every quality in the book and if (a very big if), he does become our next PM he will be weak and the right wing press will anihilate him if (again a very big if), he manages to serve out a full term. He will damage the Labour Party more than its ever been damaged before. What with the situation unfolding in Scotland, he could potentially be the overseer of the next period of Labour political hibernation. This isn't an election to knowingly win, it's one to knowingly lose.

Louisa.

[maxxi]

Couldn't disagree more Louisa. Labour's problem is the combination of careerist slogan-spouters who haven't done their homework and don't really care to and old Blairite well-poisoners. Milibabe's the only one who'd pass muster in a proper govt.

On the BBC London special tonight (admittedly an unsatisfactorily bite-sized debate) Sadiq Khan provided an embarrassment of vacuous sloganing and fake sincerity that was truly sickening.

The Tory's Piri Patel was deluded, talking as though she'd slept through the last five years, Hughes was Hughes and there was a Ukip knob but the only passion came from angry Green, Shahrar Ali; yes of course he can say all that as he won't have to do it but it made a nice change.

No Plaid Cymru though so I was only half engaged and if they don't have a local candidate (rumour has it they may not) I still do not know who to vote for.