former East Dulwich councillor - how can I help?

[James Barber]

The Police arrested two people in the act of burgling very recently.They anticipate a fall in SE22 burglaries will result. So I'm not aware of any extra patrols and have asked.

If any one living in East Dulwich ward would like a free property marking kit or personal alarm email me with the best number to call you on so we can arrange a home visit to bring these and other crime prevention kit along.

[unlurked]

Prevention is better than cure so why not campaign for more cops/increased patrols for ED rather than the 'when you're burgled it may make it easier to find your goods' kit?

[James Barber]

Hi unlurked,

Because placing the SelectADNA stickers on the entry points tells burglars that if they get caught with the goods they'll be successfully prosecuted. Most are smart enough to pick on another target.

As you say deterrent is best.

As for more Police patrols. You'd need dozens and dozens on patrol in our smallish area to stand a chance of noticing them or them spotting something. Sadly thE Met Police doesn't yet use the smart policing models of predicting where crime will be.

[ED - NAGAIUTB]

There are a few new threads post this date, which would suggest that there is still a problem.

Also, the stickers/smart water kits aren't that big of a deterrent. I don't think that it would stop a stolen iPad etc being sold on for one second. Given the level of reoffending in the UK, getting caught doesn't seem to be much of an issue/deterrent for said 'promising footballers'.

[[email protected]]

Hi James

The hospital on East Dulwich Grove, what are plans for this site, it is an eyesore, the stretch across from it is cleaning up with a lovely coffee shop, Piece of Cake, would defo recommend,and new Indian restaurant going in. Could you advise what proposed plans are for the site of the hospital ?

Thanks

[James Barber]

Hi ED - NAGAIUTB,

Sadly I suspect we'll always have some level of burglaries. But hardening our homes to make it tougher to get in will help. The recent trend has been for Home of Multiple Occupation to be burgled. Often the front door has a basic yale type lock whihc is easy for force and then they can break into individual flats without being observed. Often the occupants don't know each other to realise when something odd is happening.

The other trend is apprently sngle glazed sash windows being forced. Sash window locks are a good precaution. Double glazed sash windows also help.

Hi Emurphyie,

Dulwich Hospital site. Apparently another2-3 years befor the site will be sold during which time detailed plans willbe developed. This have been almost the exact status for 15-20 years!

I'm hopeful that of the 27,000m2 4-5,000m2 will be released for a new primary school.

[[email protected]]

Thanks James

[nxjen]

"Dulwich Hospital site. Apparently another2-3 years befor the site will be sold during which time detailed plans willbe developed."

James, is it possible to clarify what you mean when you say the "site will be sold". Does this simply mean the site will be transferred to the NHS Southwark Clinical Commissioning Group upon finalisation of their proposals (see other thread) and perhaps any surplus sold?

[Vik]

Good Morning James,

I would be very grateful if you would have a look at my PM.

Thanks!

[James Barber]

Hi nxjeb,

The land is curently owned by NHS Property. To fund changres they'll be looking to use a PFI vehicle that will sell land/build houses. Considering the low rate of interest using PFI feels perverse.

Happy to have chat on phone outside of work hours.

Hi Vik,

Have PM'd you back. Please email me the correspondence and emails you mentioned. Clearly extremely urgent.

[unlurked]

James Barber Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hi unlurked,

> Because placing the SelectADNA stickers on the

> entry points tells burglars that if they get

> caught with the goods they'll be successfully

> prosecuted. Most are smart enough to pick on

> another target.

Hi James Barber. Why not just give out the stickers then?

How many of the recent victims of burglaries in ED had the kit?

[James Barber]

Hi unlurked,

For the obvious reason burglers will soon realise if people generally don't apply the property marking and the stickers then become meaningless.

Fascinating article I read that almost all criminals don't even know the likely punishment if they get caught.

[Penguin68]

almost all criminals don't even know the likely punishment if they get caught.

Considering the wide range of possible punishments for many offences, including a police caution, and the relative unlikleyhood of being caught for most offences (clear-up rates having traditionally been distorted by getting the few caught to cough to other offences (taking into account) on the books to improve the figures) I suspect that criminals not knowing, or indeed caring, what punishments they might face is hardly surprising.

Would you care to speculate what punishment the couple arrested for burglary recently locally, assuming that they go to trial and are convicted, might get? And, on the assumption (purely for argument's sake) that they are convicted, how much time they will have spent on remand before the trial and hence how much, assuming a custodial sentance, they might then actually serve post conviction (This speculation is entirely without prejudice to whatever the eventual outcome of the case might be, and makes no assumptions of the truth or not of any allegations made against these people, who, if charged, are of course innocent until proven otherwise in a court of law - if they don't, if charged, decide to accept a police caution, if offered).

[unlurked]

James Barber Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hi unlurked,

> For the obvious reason burglers will soon realise

> if people generally don't apply the property

> marking and the stickers then become meaningless.

>

> Fascinating article I read that almost all

> criminals don't even know the likely punishment if

> they get caught.

Thanks James, point taken. But if theives do not know what the punishment for their crimes are then why would we expect them to know what the stickers etc mean? Or why would they not see the stickers as a means of identifying houses with potentially high value items to be robbed as the owner has gone to the trouble of using the kit?

[James Barber]

Hi unlurked,

When we first introduced the free property marking kits we had zero burglaries for several months. Indeed the com providing them usually have around 80% reduction.

[DaveR]

"Would you care to speculate what punishment the couple arrested for burglary recently locally, assuming that they go to trial and are convicted, might get?"

Not sure why this is a sensible question to ask a local councillor. See below.

http://sentencingcouncil.judiciary.gov.uk/docs/Burglary_Definitive_Guideline_web_final.pdf

[Penguin68]

Not sure why this is a sensible question to ask a local councillor. See below

The councillor was suggesting that criminals should 'know' the sentencing risks they were taking - I was making the point that it is difficult for anyone to be clear - as you somewhat evidence in the link you posted - where the type of charge (i.e.aggrevated or not) will be a matter for decision by the prosecuting authorities and not the criminal who undertakes the offence.

Of course I did not expect an answer, I was posing that question in order to suggest that it was broadly un-answerable - and thus that the suggestion that a criminal might be expected to be able to answer it was not a helpful one.

The 'answer' I was expecting was - 'No, I do not care to speculate...'

The point I was trying to make is that forecasting a sentence is not easy to do, as there as so many variables, and that many criminals assume, quite rightly, that the likelihood of being sentenced (that is to say of being caught and convicted) is itself quite unpredictable - but of quite a low order of probablity.

Hence the 'threat' of sentencing may be relatively limited in its effect of influencing criminal behaviour.

[DaveR]

If we are talking specifically about residential burglaries, the guidelines are actually pretty clear. Also, although the crimes may be opportunistic they are rarely one-off i.e. a large proportion of residential burglaries are commmitted by people who habitually commit that type of offence (as well as others crimes, potentially). I think it's pretty widely accepted that deterrence is a function of both the likelihood of being caught and the likely sentence - the point about property marking kits is that they increase the likelihood of getting caught (and the stickers may act as a deterrent in themselves).

FWIW, in my experience habitual burglars know full well that if they get caught they are likely to go inside(particularly if they already have burglary convictions), and they mostly do get caught. However, burglars tend to be prolific and the odds of getting caught on any particular occasion are small.

It's also worth observing that policing is one of those areas where there is a conflict between what the public ultimately want i.e. high prevention and detection rates, and what they immediately want i.e. lots of visible police presence on the streets. The evidence for any link between the two is thin, to say the least.

[Apollo4000]

James, can you have Landcroft road resurfaced?

[eliz01]

Thanks.

[peckhamside]

Elizabeth,

Did one have a dog with you by any chance, could it have tunelled under the fence and fetched help?

It is possible to climb over or through the fence in Peckham Rye Park.

[unlurked]

Eliz - Just because you were so careless, and you did not check closing times does not mean the system has to change and you shouldn't be asking for it. It has worked well for years. Besides the park is not in ED ward. Try checking next time.

[James Barber]

Hi Apollo4000,

The last third of Landcroft Road that hasnt been resurfaced will be in January.

Hi eliz01,

I'm really sorry you got tracked inside Dulwich Park.

Font size 10 isnt the most helpful signage that oculd be placed.

I've contacted the head of parks to try and understand how this could happen and what the parks team will do to ensure it doesn't happen again.

Hi unlurked,

But I'm assuming she;s an East Dulwich resident.

Also it raises the general principle of how we sign changes in opening times for parks and what the procedure is for people getting locked inside any Southwark park.

[unlurked]

James Barber Wrote:

---------------------------------------------------

> Hi unlurked,

> But I'm assuming she;s an East Dulwich resident.

> Also it raises the general principle of how we

> sign changes in opening times for parks and what

> the procedure is for people getting locked inside

> any Southwark park.

Its a non issue, James, don't make it one because of someones own mistake. Talk about nannying! And what about the hard of hearing, should we have flashing lights, oh wait, what about the deaf and blind, etc

[James Barber]

Hi unlurked,

We disagree.

Not making it clear when a park closes and having no process for releasing people when it closes are issues that need to be fixed.

Such a call-out procedure coudl support thE Police invesitgating a break-in of a cafe, looking for a lost child, etc, etc.