> No Deal isnít just the legal default; itís now the
> preferred option of most Leave voters, when
> compared to Mayís Deal.
That's an important caveat, every option becomes the preferred option when up against May's deal. I suppose we should be grateful she's managed to unite the country on at least one thing.
The latest YouGov poll taken a few days ago with a 25,000 sample, shows Remain at 58% v No Deal at 42%.
> FOM is a red line for
> many, many Leave voters and they will happily
> swallow anything in order to stop it. May and
> Corbyn both know that to oppose them is suicide at
> a GE.
That's a common perception but I've seen a few post-ref surveys that don't back it up. I recall one that said FOM/immigration was 5th on the list of people's concerns, I think the economy was top.
] ...reports that ''just 31% of leave voters want a sharp reduction in EU immigration'', that's 31% of 52%, just over 15%, not such a big number when you break it down. Incidentally, that's around the figure UKIP was polling in the 2015 GE.
> (The fact that non-EU immigration is rising seems
> to be ignored...)
Yep, it's definitely a strange one. To me immigration/FOM was a convenient stick with which to hit the EU, nothing more.
> To revoke A50 will be similar suicide, so they
> arenít going to do that either.
My point is they may have no other choice if they want to avoid the legal default of No Deal. Avoiding No Deal is the one option where there's actually a clear majority in the HoC.
Personally I think A50 will be extended because it's a continuation of the 'kicking the can down the road' strategy, but the EU will want a genuine reason to do that.
> Iím starting to think itíll be a snap GE or No Deal.
Only Corbyn wants an election. If he puts in a 'No Confidence' vote after May's deal sinks tonight, he will get beaten. His best chance of success would be if he offered Tory Remainers a 2nd ref as part of a GE deal, otherwise they will vote for the Tories to stay in power. DUP would never side with him for obvious reasons, plus they won't want give up all the control and power they currently have...