Earl Aelfheah

... Plus the fact that if we're to re-enter the single market post exit, there will still need to be agreement on free movement of people of course.

I agree with rendleharris- whilst it's clearly not the only issue, immigration seems to be the one that's gained most traction on the leave side. If we do exit it will probably be anti immigration sentiment that will have carried the day. The problem of course, is that those who are voting for a significant reduction in the numbers of people coming to the UK are likely to be very disappointed with what happens following an out vote. Most of the economic forecasts for post Brexit have assumed that immigration remains relatively high. As most of our immigration currently comes from outside Europe and is itself in the hundreds of thousands there is little chance of it suddenly being bought down to levels that many 'Leavers' want to see. So either we'll continue to have relatively high levels of immigration, or there will be even more strain on the economy and further deteriation in public services. Either way, it's hard to understand what is achieved. If people believe there will be more housing, higher wages, or more school places I believe they're going to be disappointed. Personally, i think we'll see a lot of discontent, from those who are being sold a totally false prospectus from some very cynical careerists I the Conservative party.

Jeez, this is depressing

I really want to hear a cogent argument for leave.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/dear-friends-this-is-why-i-will-vote-remain-in-the-referendum/

So if you think the EU has problems (I agree), how does Brexit help? Unless we are to stop trading with the EU, we'll still have to deal with it, still have to abide by EU regulations, but we'll have no voting rights and no influence on its future direction. Exit doesn't achieve reform, it hampers it.

@thecat - that's not a strong economic argument in favour of Brexit though. you seem to be saying that there will be a negative economic impact, but that it may be relatively short lived. Do you think long term we'll be financially better off and if so, why and on what evidence?

Immigration does seem to be the issue which has the most traction for the leave campaign though.

I haven't heard a convincing economic argument for Brexit. The idea that we'll get a better deal following a vote to leave, (that all 27 member states will agree to our re-entering the single market, with full access, but exempted from the regulations which govern it) really does strike me as deluded. On immigration there are some more reasoned arguments (although I disagree with them). It is self-evident that free movement goes hand in hand with membership of a single market and if you think this a bad thing then maybe one could consider the economic pain worth it, to restrict movement in and out of Europe. Of course this completely negates the benefits UK citizens get from free movement, the fact that 1.2 million people born in the UK live in other EU countries and that we all have the opportunity to travel and work anywhere within the EU. But again, I can see that some might consider this worth losing if they feel strongly enough about immigration in. Personally though, I take issue with the whole premise that immigration is a problem. The view that immigration is straining public services seems to ignore the fact that the NHS is kept afloat by immigrant labour (by doctors and nurses from overseas), and that, as a net contributor to the economy, helps fund public services in the first place. The truth is that the level of public service provision is a matter of public policy. Moves to cut immigration and pull out of the single market are very unlikely to lead to better public services in my opinion. Neither is it plausible that Gove and Boris are truly advocating investing heavily in the public sector with or without Brexit, which just makes their claims on the topic incredibly cynical. But even if you are ?anti immigration?, it is by no means a given that post-Brexit, immigration levels will come down significantly. The claim often made, that it is the EU which is preventing immigration coming down to the 'tens of thousands' is not true. The majority of immigration to the UK comes from outside the EU (which is entirely within our control) and is itself in the hundreds of thousands. Personally, I just haven?t heard an argument which convinces me we will benefit from ?Brexit?.

FFS

I am intrigued genuinely. Does anyone think we'll end up with better trade terms following an exit? What do you think we'll get- full access to the single market without having to comply with product standards for example?

The idea that we'll get better trading terms after we leave is ridiculous, regardless of the balance of trade. The best possible post Brexit outcome would be to retain much of our preferential access to the single market, which would mean continuing contributions to the eU budget and abiding by most Eu regulations. So in other words, things would remain much as they are now, eccept we would have no influence over Eu policies and no voting rights. Any better deal would put the eus own members at a competitive disadvantage and reward (thereby encouraging further) exits. It's not going to happen.

So you think we'll leave the single market only to negotiate re-entry on better terms. Really?

The idea that we can quit the EU and then negotiate our way back in to the single market, on better terms, is pure fantasy. I thought this article in the Washington post summed things up pretty nicely https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/05/31/the-simple-and-shocking-truth-that-explains-the-rise-of-far-right-politicians-everywhere/

DulwichFox Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > rahrahrah Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > You're such a hipster fox > > Hipster.. ? I have no facial hair or the desire > to do so.. > > But.. I do have the tendency to be impulsive and > Shoot from the Hip.. > > Fox .. as shoot from the hipster then.

You're such a hipster fox

It is ridiculous to suggest that all pubs in ED are the same.

I am a little dubious about the viability of a craft shop on the Lane, but genuinely hope they can make a go of it.

Yes, sorry, I was being a bit mischievous / flippant. It's offering craft lessons.

I feel sorry for the Manager and the existing staff who are being pushed out. I used to like the Castle(great that it has a pool table / dart board) but i was put off following the last refurb, by the number of TV screens that were installed. I like to go to the pub to escape the TV personally. I hope they don't change it too much though. The White Horse in Peckham is a good example of an update which brings in new customers without driving out the old.

I feel for her, that's pretty harsh. I suspect Jah is right, there'll be a refurb and a 'repositioning'.

What reason have they given for forcing her out? Sounds pretty unfair

Really Maria opening next to Sweaty's. Selling buttons and string apparently

I could quit anytime i wanted. Honest.

The snowball.