TheCat

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- >You can vote to leave the eu but you have to define what a post eu future will look like. I think the tangible evidence would suggest that you don't have to do anything of the sort. It's perfectly reasonable to say 'I don't like X' so will vote against it. I come back to my often mocked comment that many remainers are risk averse, and don't deal well with the heightened uncertainty of future direction. For many, the you may feel that letting a government determine the best path/method/process for leaving EU is reckless, others would argue it isn't.

KidKruger Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > When information about the subject of a referendum > is untrue, misleading, duplicitous, then it?s > fraud masquerading as democracy. > What galls me is the lies were allowed, unabated, > no accountability. > For me, Democracy is more honest / less > disingenuous - the act of being able to vote is > only a process, but it stands for nowt if the the > air around it is poisoned. Democracy in action.... https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/matthew-ellery/leave-lies-remainers-need_b_12191462.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALWk0HjjILuOpSqnuQ1o0FLD2mF05QAMUpn8i8ehM_Aj3NzOkyJcM9d1lzCH8UzaX7r0W7ozgh4xlcuoblcGatAbx1H1uPO37oWqywEHTgT_zJJ1zZjI5i-9wtw3omNhETWDTZsrJfw8xNStEt6qXiu6XsCAAOV3CJYsfxT3f_Ni

I'm broadly happy with the situation. Of course the future is uncertain, as it would be regardless of membership status of the EU. My chippiness is purely a manifestation of frustration regarding the recurring hyperbole and subjectivity on these pages.

EDguy89 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Blah Blah Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Europe will have its vaccine rollout well under > > way in the next couple of months. Not sure what > > your point really is here, when the UK only > made > > that one initial order with Pfizer and that > > arrives in batches that could take 10 months to > > complete delivery of. This government, and no > > doubt many others, are pinning hopes on the > > Oxford/ Astrazeneca vaccine that requires no > > special refrigeration and can be distributed to > > GPs and much wider types of outlets as a > result. > > It is much cheaper too. Irregardless of when > > vaccine rollouts start, we are talking > differences > > of months and it will take at least a year to > get > > even half a population vaccinated. There is no > > fast track on this for anyone. > > His point is we'll all be sitting pretty here > having our sausage rolls and tea whilst those > disgusting, gross, deplorable continental > Europeans get what they deserve. > > As an immigrant myself, I hate all those > immigrants trying to claw their way into the UK to > get a hold of the vaccine that they're not gonna > be able to get. They can enjoy all the camembert > and wine they like. I'll have my locally sourced > fish n chips thank you very much. > > Something something something the sun never sets > on the english empire god save the queen. > > Edit: Blah Blah it seems I got a little too hopped > up on tea and our newly acquired SoVeReIgNtY that > I quoted you for no real reason. Keeping in line > with premier Johnson, I will not concede that this > was a mistake, and ensure you that it was > intentional. I hope your smug self-righteousness keeps you warm at night. How is the weather in your echo chamber anyway?

KidKruger Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > You don?t need to paraphrase for me, I said what I > think exactly in my post earlier. > So read that. That is my view. I don?t need you to > translate for me. > If I ever think that people are wrong because they > don?t agree with me, then I will say it like that, > but until then - thanks for offering to paraphrase > for me! > > TheCat Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > KidKruger Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > A > > > For me personally, this whole episode has > > enabled > > > me to properly recognise the extent to which > > our > > > population is uneducated and racist, at least > I > > > now know who I?m dealing with and how easily > > > manipulated they are and how much damage they > > are > > > willing to inflict on their own country (in > the > > > name of patriotism). > > > > > > > KK, you contributions are normally well > balanced > > and measured. But this is not one of those > times. > > This comment is all that is wrong with this > entire > > debate. To paraphrase, 'someone thinks > differently > > to me, therefore they are either misled or an > > idiot'...... Well of course You don't need someone to translate your own thoughts. But for the benefit of the uneducated, rascist, easily manipulated populace, the paraphrase is helpful....

I have outlined this before a number of times. But perhaps worth rehashing at this juncture. Amongst other reasons, I voted to leave the EU becuase I believe that the potential increased flexibility and nimbleness in policy will provide opportunities in the future. It is a broad, conceptual rationale. While I have done (and did do) a good amount of my own research, I believe it is reasonable to vote on concept, without necessarily knowing all the ins and outs of EU legislation and trade. It is not possible to provide specifics of what advantages that flexibility may provide, as these opportunities will only be evident as they arise. This outlook isn't uncommon is business, 'optionality' is often a desired long term driver of potential value. This is perhaps where many remainers have issue around 'tangible' benefits. Yes, unquestionably, the price of this is the additional 'friction' in trade. I was conscious of this when voting, I did not believe in 'unicorns'. You may disagree, and feel that this rationale is much too vague for you, and lacking in specific detail. But that is a personal preference, and this constant dismissal of people who voted leave as misled rascist fools is just lazy and myopic. Why not acknowledge a reasonably justified differing view, even if you don't agree?

Blah Blah Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Until the sneering stops HA!!!!!

KidKruger Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > A > For me personally, this whole episode has enabled > me to properly recognise the extent to which our > population is uneducated and racist, at least I > now know who I?m dealing with and how easily > manipulated they are and how much damage they are > willing to inflict on their own country (in the > name of patriotism). > KK, you contributions are normally well balanced and measured. But this is not one of those times. This comment is all that is wrong with this entire debate. To paraphrase, 'someone thinks differently to me, therefore they are either misled or an idiot'......

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > "Questio,....is there ANYTHING that the remainers > on here see as POTENTIALLY positive going > forward?" > > What I like about this is the unspoken fear, if > not panic as it dawns that the people he likes to > debate with on here are all against him, but the > people who agree with him are loons like TD Unlike you my friend. I don't give a f@"k what other people who voted leave think, or what their motivations were. I dont need validation from others to justify my view. I have a view. It is my own. If you need to feel that others share your view to believe that it is justified, then you must not have a great deal of conviction in your own thoughts. I don't care what was on the side of a bus, or what colour my passport is, or what leaver politicians lied about. If any voter was so naive as to swallow soundbites unquestioned, then that is indeed tragic. There's also no 'unspoken fear'. More just asking to determine if these 'debates' are even worth it. If you cant see any justification whatsoever in brexit (even if you don't agree) then you're not a great deal more informed, enlightened or considered than the ignorant foolish leavers these pages love to dump on....

Questio,....is there ANYTHING that the remainers on here see as POTENTIALLY positive going forward?

I have criticised Blm before. But this is rascist and ridiculous

To be fair...the timing of delivery is a large unknown....

Blah blah.....the facts are that the UK has ordered second e per capita than any other country. Or are facts not convenient to you not okay?

SpringTime Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > JohnL Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Pritti Patel apparently has asked a civil > service > > team to investigate bring in death penalty. > > > Slum landlords like Priti herself qualify for the > noose every time John. Perhaps dial back the hyperbole hey? No matter your political persuasions, I don't believe there's ever a call for such low ball commentary.

My pronouns are Boris/Bo-Jo....

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > If I was a leaver, I would be worried about the > deal specifically because Johnson has ensured it > will get no scrutiny. And as history show us, his > idea of getting something through without scrutiny > but full of praise tends to backfire > > Interesting to see JPMorgan analysis today see it > as problematic for the UK > > But this week is the high tide for leavers - they > should enjoy it while they can. Pressure for more > alignment will start to come relatively soon as > the additional frictions mount and aggravate > travellers and business. Any new-found "freedoms" > are likely to be in name only > > "so far, in the popular print and broadcast press" > - I'm going to guess you mean the garbage UK > press, the ones that played such a part in getting > us here? Of course they begged up May for a while > too didn't they. And Johnson's oven ready deal > before he threatened to break international law So it seems you managed to reserve judgement for at least a whole 2 hours:)....

So far, in the popular print and broadcast press (as well as social media) I've seen a lot of rejoicing, but also a lot of tantrums..... Hopefully most people are following sephiroth's advice above and reserving judgement with cautious optimism.... But in anycase, from what I've seen so far there doesn't really seem to be any genuine huge surprises here. So I'd expect that most people who bemoan the loss of FoM and the addition of friction to trade will still moan about how it's worse than what the UK had before on those fronts. And for those who wanted to see ECJ lose all jurisdiction, and the UK gain more flexibility in future policy direction, it will celebrated it as a win. They both would be justified in those judgements based on their preferences, but as was always the case, people place different emphasis on different things. So with regards to the public mood (while it is a significant achievement to see almost any deal negotiated within 11 months) I doubt it will do much to change anyone's perceptions of the risks and opportunities, or the presence of tangible benefits, or lack thereof.....

malumbu Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Like when you were a kid going to the coast with > your family. "Are we there yet" "Are we there > yet" "Are we there yet" "Are we there yet" "Are > we there yet" "Are we there yet" "Are we there > yet" Yep.....love Boris, or hate Boris....surely we can all agree on how irritating it is that he regularly horrendously late for his own press conferences....

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > whatever gets announced today, and however it's > greeted, it would be wise to let it sink in and > digest before getting too worked up either way Nah...let's go for emotive, knee-jerk reaction....just to ensure we remain in keeping with both sides over the last 4.5 years....:)

Imagine being the EU intern who didn't refresh the spreadsheet data links yesterday...... The lengthy delay in today's announcement on the trade deal is caused by the European Commission using out of date figures on the amount of fish that EU member states catch in UK waters, The Telegraph understands. Boris Johnson is understood to have made a major concession to the EU by agreeing to their red line of no more than 25 percent of the value of fish caught in UK waters being repatriated to British fishermen. In return, he secured a five and a half transition period during which the new quotas would take effect before annual negotiations over fishing opportunities with the EU would begin. But the Commission's sums on fishing stocks were wrong, causing alarm when the contents of the deal was reported back to member states. The deal has been delayed while officials work through the issues.

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > "Also...point of order, Cat's don't have > snouts..we prefer the term 'nose leather's..." > > Fair > > "Try and play the ball, not the man, Sephiroth. > And I'm referring to AEP's article, not myself. " > > Nah - once someone is a proven snake oil salesman, > it's fair to judge them. "Play the ball not the > man" is an overplayed card. There are too many bad > actors- they need calling out. Their arguments > define them Well...the 'guts' of the main points in his article are lifted straight from an investigative report in Der Speigel......who I would argue it's slightly harder to discredit.... https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-planning-disaster-germany-and-europe-could-fall-short-on-vaccine-supplies-a-3db4702d-ae23-4e85-85b7-20145a898abd

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > rollout of the vaccine is something to watch - > right now? who knows. But given AEP's track record > I'll pass on the article* > > Back on topic - it's looking like deal > announcement close with UK caving. Because what > else could happen > > > * that track record can be found here > https://muckrack.com/ambrose-evans-pritchard/artic > les > > some highlights > "We can beat Covid without lockdowns, says top > German virologist" > "Markets are counting on a vaccine rescue that is > further away than they think" > "America Inc will shake off COVID-19 effects > quicker than we think" > "https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/12/b > rexit-vote-is-about-the-supremacy-of-parliament-an > d-nothing-els/" > > there is a huuuuuge pile of horseshit with his > name on it - so of course The Cat loves to stick > it's snout in and snuffle around Try and play the ball, not the man, Sephiroth. And I'm referring to AEP's article, not myself. Also...point of order, Cat's don't have snouts..we prefer the term 'nose leather's...

So....while the early vaccine approval in the UK (versus the EU) has already been discussed on these pages, and relegated into the 'nice but not really a big deal in the scheme of brexit' basket (by myself as well I might add, so not a pop at remainers). If this assessment (below) from AEP in the Telegraph is in anyway accurate with regards to the timing of delivery of vaccines procured by the EMA (thus potentially delaying the mass inoculation of EU population for a further 6 months (versus the UK))...then it's not only a big deal in terms of public health, but also for potential economic recovery. To be fair, I think we don't really have the full picture yet on timing rollouts in any country, so I'm not posting this article and suggesting its gospel, but if reasonably accurate, it might perhaps even verge on being worthy discussion as (whisper it) a 'real tangible benefit' of brexit?.... Europe?s vaccination fiasco threatens to become the EU's biggest failure The politicisation by Brussels of Covid vaccines is turning into an economic and political black swan event - with a huge price to pay AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD 23 December 2020 ? 3:35pm The EU?s politicisation of Covid vaccines is turning into an economic and political black swan event. There will be a price to pay as the consequences of this profound failure unfold in 2021, and an even higher price as people start to understand why it happened. Europe?s double-dip recession will be stretched out for another quarter. Recovery will be delayed until the second half of the year. Thousands more companies will be pushed over the brink, threatening a cascade of defaults and raising the risk of systemic solvency across the banking nexus. Labour scarring will run deeper. Public debt ratios across the Club Med bloc will move closer to the point of no return. It is by now widely known that the European Medicines Agency wasted two critical weeks after the UK, Canada and even America?s notoriously cautious FDA had approved the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. The agency would have wasted another week had there not been furious complaints from Berlin. The Commission?s insistence that all EU states should then launch the vaccine at the same time after Christmas has lost yet more critical days. Germans have been subjected to the surreal spectacle of trial drills by their well-organised vaccination machine when they could have been doing the real thing. They cannot yet receive a jab made by their own start-up group BioNTech. ?Germany has bet on Europe, and lost heavily (krachend verloren),? was the headline across Die Zeit, with a pointed picture of a woman in Cardiff being vaccinated while along with a caption declaring that Germans must wait such deliverance. The Netherlands has compounded the error by so mishandling its software preparations that it will not start vaccinating until Jan 8. If you think Boris Johnson has had a bad pandemic, take a look at Dutch wunderkind Mark Rutte. Listen to the volcanic exchanges in the Tweede Kamer. But these delays pale compared to what is coming next year. The European vaccine alliance has failed in its one overriding purpose: it neglected the job of acquiring vaccines. Germany has just 400,000 doses of the BioNTech jab and may not receive more than 3m or 4m by late January, rising to a total of 11m to 13m by the end of March. Berlin has taken matters into its own hands and belatedly ordered more for the future but the damage is done. A devastating report by investigative journalists at Der Spiegel entitled ?The Planning Disaster? pulls away the curtain on the ineptitude of the European Commission, which drifted through the summer with much self-gratulation but little action. Other countries ordered early, and ordered wide. Brussels picked a mix of vaccines that mostly will not be ready until the second half of 2021 at the earliest. It failed to lock in a firm order for the BioNTech jab until mid-November, long after it was already clear that this messenger RNA vaccine was a front-runner. Even then it declined the full offer of 500m doses for the EU27. The Commission ordered just 200m, with an option for 100m more. It also turned down most of the offer from Moderna, the other mRNA front-runner. According to Der Spiegel there had to be parity with Sanofi?s "French vaccine", which has since gone badly awry and is unlikely to come on stream before the end of 2021. "Buying more from a German company wasn't in the cards,? said one source. You can interpret this as a case of European ideology and political correctness running amok, but there is an even worse construction: the Commission seems to have intervened in the interests of one commercial company, spending public funds corruptly in violation of its own competition law. ?Dramatic consequences are brewing for the German government,? said Der Spiegel. ?Without being able to vaccinate on a broad scale, the country won?t be able to stop the virus. Which means that the fall and winter of 2021 could be similar to this year, with high infection rates, contact restrictions and lockdowns.? Analysts at Eurointelligence go even further: ?The combination of a delay of vaccine approval and a procurement policy under suspicion of prioritising producer interest would be a shock from which the EU would struggle to recover. From now onwards, Covid deaths may be EU deaths.? In my view we are heading into a year where German popular support for the European Project will be stress-tested like never before. Two grave matters will intersect. It will become clear to all that the fundamental health security of the country has been endangered by EU politics. At the same time, monetary union will go through another spasm of tension. Europe?s leaders have oversold the ?750bn recovery fund as a springboard for Keynesian reflation. It is spread too thinly over five years to move the macroeconomic needle. Almost half of the money is in the form of loans that may never be used - except in extremis - because of the Troika-like conditions attached. Budget plans in southern Europe suggest that much of the grant component displaces money that would have been spent anyway and therefore adds no net fiscal stimulus. Yet a third wave of Covid and further rolling lockdowns, now unavoidable, means that the overall fiscal package will have to be greater. There is already talk sotto voce that the recovery fund will need to be much larger to avert lasting economic damage. If so, it means telling German and northern European taxpayers that they will have to dig deeper into their pockets to fund even greater transfers to the South. The European Central Bank can shut down the price signals in the sovereign debt markets for a while longer by soaking up the bond issuance of Italy, Spain, Portugal, and indeed France, but the longer it does so, the clearer it is that the ECB is conducting fiscal policy and propping up insolvent sovereign states in breach of EU treaty law. While the latest programme of pandemic QE lasts in principle until March 2022, the problems will surface before then. German public opinion and part of the economics professoriate will react once there are first flickers of inflation, which will occur around Easter for mechanical "base-effect" reasons and because of commodity supply constraints. You can dress up QE as an emergency tool for fighting deflation. How do you explain it if prices are rising briskly? For now attention is on Britain?s particular travails but this is unlikely to last. Scientists working in the UK discovered and tracked the B.1.1.7 mutation because this country has done almost as much genome sequencing of Covid-19 as the rest of the world combined. As Nervtag said in its report, this mutation was particularly hard to sequence. Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium (COG-UK) makes these sequences available to international science, a big contribution to the global fight against the pandemic that is little appreciated in lay circles. You certainly would not know this from some of the abuse being hurled at Britain. Italy?s health adviser Walter Ricciardi descended to inexcusable depths in suggesting that the UK knew about the virus in September (it did not not: the sample was collected in September, one of thousands of mutations) and has since engaged in a Wuhanesque cover-up. It is possible that the mutation came from Italy in the first place for all we know. It might have come from the treatment of an immuno-compromised patient in the UK treated with neutralising antibodies, but we can?t be sure. It is too early to reach any conclusion. The larger point is that the UK acts as Europe?s viral antennae. There has been more Covid sequencing from Wales than from the whole of France. Once EU states carry out full surveillance of the mutant strain they may discover that it has long been circulating on the Continent, explaining the parabolic surges that have caught so many governments off guard over recent weeks. The great irony is that only the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine will be available soon enough and at a larger enough scale to prevent a disaster for Europe over the next six months. The mutation makes it even more urgent. ?Right now, whether Germany fares well or not hinges on the AstraZeneca vaccine,? says Karl Lauterbach, health chief for the German Social Democrats. The vaccine will almost certainly be approved in the UK the week after Christmas. The European Medicines Agency will have to decide whether to swallow its pride and accept an accursed product of this apostate island. My guess is that it will drag feet for faux procedural reasons until public opinion and the German Chancellor force the issue. Whatever happens, it is going to be a very difficult time for Europe. People will notice as the UK conducts several million vaccinations a week all through January in a massive operation that draws on the best of the NHS and the British armed forces. There will be the same images in America, Canada, and elsewhere. They will ask why the doses are being dribbled out so desperately slowly across the Continent, and when that happens Brussels will struggle to offer a credible answer. If EU elites don?t yet realise that this is going to mushroom into one of the biggest failures in the history of the European Project, they will find out soon enough

diable rouge Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > TheCat Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > diable rouge Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > The 1500+ lorry jam shows the folly of > 'taking > > > back control of our borders'. > > > Borders are shared, and Brexiters waving > their > > > magic sovereignty wand doesn't make a blind > bit > > of > > > difference... > > > > We haven't left yet. > > Actually, we have. We left the EU at the end of > Jan this year, that was Brexit. > The 11 month transition period we're in now is to > allow for finalizing a trade deal and also to > allow all parties/businesses etc to get ready for > a deal... Thanks for the explanation, it's so difficult to keep up with the changing stories as to whether we have left or not depending on what argument people want to make on any given day.....

KidKruger Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > TheCat - it?s good practice for Brexit proper ! And practice makes perfect:)