diable rouge

NewWave Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I think its late 1900's Did you mean to say late 1800's? If so I agree it's more likely to be from around that time, the curves are Art Nouveau-ish. I'm sure it's not mid 20th century, probably just a label given to it by the seller to attract interest as it's en vogue. It's quite clunky and a mish mash of styles, so could be a one-off, e.g. a chair that's been modified or a design student's piece of work. I'd email antique experts and get their thoughts...

This is a very good Q&A on where we currently are with Covid, as some of you don't like clicking on links I've copied and pasted the info, but this is the link f you want to see the original source... Like I suspect a number of scientists I've been quizzed by a variety of friends and family on COVID, and its gone up recently because (a) school is back and so people can feel change around them and (b) there is a change in stats in across countries in Europe. Q: Has the virus gone away? There are very few deaths now. A: Sadly no. The virus stop circulating in the population because we restricted how many people on average each person meets during lockdown. This worked, but the virus is still present in the population and can come back Q: Has the virus got less deadly? Or hospital treatment better? A: The virus has not obviously got less deadly inherently. Due to excellent clinical research across the world treatment has got better; we now know of a handful of drugs which do work and a number which dont >> Although the treatments are better, it is nowhere close to a "cure" - perhaps 20% to 40% fewer people are dying in hospital than early on, but not enough to fundamental change the progress of the disease Q: The cases have gone up to the same level as April of this year, and yet deaths have not risen. Surely something has changed? A: Yes. The main thing that has changed is most countries have far more testing capacity and they offer tests to far broader range >> The other thing is that younger people are being less careful (older people have remained careful) so the cases and transmission are happening more in the young, in particular in France and Spain Given that it looks like we have cases and few deaths that's ok right? Why not keep on like this? A: Frustratingly epidemics have two modes: "growing" and "shrinking". It is basically near impossible to have something "just ticking along" at a steady relatively high rate. Q: OK. Can't we just let the young people get it, and then they will all be immune A: Although the rate is higher in the young it is still in the 1 in 1,000 or so (say in France) - there is plenty further it can get to and at some point it will likely go into the older population To make a segregation work to be confident that you just let rip in one part of the population without infecting another part you really have to have basically no contact - anywhere, any context, any shop, any school, any hospital and any family. It's basically unfeasible. Q: What about just letting everyone have it at some controlled rate now? Isn't this what Sweden is doing? A: Just letting the virus circulate will mean somewhere around 0.5% (perhaps a little lower) of people dying and many more people having a debilitating disease >> If we did this at the virus' natural rate it would mean the health systems would have to become dedicated to palliative care for many months as well as just a large number of people dying. >> Sweden's strategy is more nuanced than the headlines make out elsewhere. There was early on a higher acceptance of natural progression of the virus, but in many ways Sweden has ended up in a similar place to much of Europe - low viral transmission due to behavioural changes Q: So - should I get worried about my friend in Madrid? Or Lyon? Or Sevilla? Other places in Europe? A: If they are young, likely not. If they are old... then location matters. Spain has strong growth of cases and hospitalisation rates have climbed, in particular in Madrid >> France the cases have climbed but the hospitalisations have just nudged up. Belgium had a mini 2nd wave outbreak which they tamed by reintroducing local lockdowns and more mask wearing. Q: Will schools going back increase transmission? A: We don't know. What we do know is that schools going back is also a big shift in contact patterns post holidays - people moving around, more workplace visits, different visits by different people. It is not just about schools. Q: Is there any risk to my children? A: It is low, and it was low in the holidays when your children were somewhere else (likely ... having ice creams, visiting seaside cafes etc). Children need education and peers - they will be happier and safe in schools. Q: Why are people so concerned about schools reopening? A: Partly I think it is the unknown and genuine concern, I think unfounded, for risk to children. Partly it is the risk for the staff (though the evidence is thin that teaching staff are more at risk); however >> The main concern though is that schools and universities going back means lots of potential new and more contact patterns - basically, teenagers + young adults going to pubs and clubs, adults going work place + pubs. More contacts, more at risky locations Q: So we shouldn't go to pubs? Or clubs? A: Beer gardens / outside seem fine. Inside - keep the windows open, wash everything obsessively and get back outside. Personally I think it's just best not to go to clubs. Q: This is not going to work well when it is raining A: Agreed Q: So - is there a plan? A: Broadly yes, though one does have to piece it together. The main plan in most European countries, UK included, is have enough control of viral transmission until there is a good enough vaccine for the at risk (elderly) population. The development of vaccines have gone far far faster than anyone expected (I have been on a Phase II/III trial for the Oxford vaccine since the summer); more vaccines are being made and at a faster rate than ever expected. There are now consistent noises of readouts for the vaccine results later this autumn (some partly politically driven in a slightly depressing way) but some vaccines probably will have reasonable data then. BUT >> even if the vaccines are "good enough" they still have to be made at scale and distributed. This means we've got to navigate at least the autumn and start of winter *without* a vaccine, and might have to do it until spring/early summer 2021. Q: That sounds depressing. Can we do this? A: We don't know but a number of countries have consistently kept transmission pretty low - South Korea, Germany and Japan are 3 examples. Two things seem to be important >> 1. Testing. One needs to be able to test a lot and test quickly. 2. Contact tracing, in particular back to sites of high risk infection. Most European countries have now some mixture of both of these. We need these working at the highest level to keep the infection under control Q: If Germany, Japan and South Korea can do it, why can't all countries? A: They probably all can - it is just really far hard to operationalise and organise. Tweeting these things - easy. Doing them - far far harder. Q: Is UK / France / Spain / Italy / Germany doing this? A: Nearly all countries have the same fundamental components in their strategy. Operationalising it is complex and improving in most places. The country I know best is the UK: testing depth has come on hugely since May >> Track and Trace in the UK had a far bumpier summer but seems to be working at some level - still plenty of improvements that can be made. The French testing has improved alot, and track and trace is good. The Spanish situation is made more complex to track because it is organised mainly region by region. I have to admit I find it hard to track the details, and I think even good Spanish journalists find it hard to keep track. Q: Are there anything more we can - should - be doing? A: A surprising thing at first glance is testing sewage to spot specific outbreaks early. This seems to work and more places are using it. This helps find outbreaks quicker. >> The other thing is to take testing to the next level: More capacity, different technologies (so less single supply chain risk) and more portable formats. And from spit rather than swabs. (Here I have to *yawn* point out that I am a long established consultant to Oxford Nanopore which makes one of the new, more portable, tests - LamPORE) Q: So should I be worried? A: Probably worry a little less than you are now. Organised, motivated and clever people are worried about it in most governments / health organisations in Europe and they are being held to scrutiny by organised and clever people in the press. Right now, I worry at the moment about my colleagues in Madrid, and I hope Madrid can find a path through this. I'm so impressed by the people who work in the different public health, clinical research + COVID facing research - they work their socks off everyday in my experience Stepping back, we understand what is going on at far far better level than in March and April. Sadly we can't snap our fingers and make the virus go away, but we do understand far more of the moving parts. Q: What can I do? A: Follow health advice: ask for a test if you get the slightest hint of symptom; don't go to a high risk area (pub, club, karoke bar) unless you have to; wear a mask in all medium risks (shops, public transport etc); love yourself and your family

KidKruger Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Pugwash, when I lived in Scotland I think the > owner had to pay for the survey and it be made > available to all prospective purchasers. A lot > less messing about, a lot less surprises, a lot > less money into hands of surveyors doing repeat > surveys on same property. The Scottish system of selling/buying, although not perfect, is still way better than England & Wales', the biggest plus being the sealed bid system rules out gazumping...

Anyone else getting a feeling of deja vu?...

While hubby is away in Wales channeling his inner Withnail and I, Mrs Bob decides it's now a good time to stimulate the local building economy into action with her own version of Rishi's Dishis while respecting social distancing... Is this the queue for Mrs Bob's 'Meat out and I'll help out'? inquired Pavel...

KK draws a blank in his search for jumbo hot dog rolls... Sorry mate, there was a sudden rush on them after the anal sex thread, can I tempt you with a couple of baps?

The EDF Fantasy League is up and running too, I automatically joined it when I auto-selected a team...

It's back! Actually it never really went away apart from a fortnight in Mykonos... And for any newcomers, just click on here and register... https://www.predictaddict.co.uk/

TheCat Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Give it a rest DR. > > You're now starting to look quite petty with > constant personal snipes. Peak EDF...

TheCat Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Perhaps the balance I am striving for is against > the overwhelming uniformity of thought on this > forum from the most active members.... > Your behaviour in this thread suggests that I must > be the first person ever to mock the Guardian or > accuse them of being unbalanced in their own > coverage.....I'll give you a little hint...I'm > really not...and if suggesting so makes you this > irate and verging on personal attacks in your > responses, then everything in your life must > appear like 'trolling' to you.... Nice try, yet more deflectionary tactics, none of which detract from your hypocrisy...

If the UK wants to strike a deal with the French for them to prevent smugglers from exploiting asylum seekers crossing the Channel, then you can bet your bottom Euro that the French will ask for fishing rights to be part of that deal. And when it comes to OUR fishing waters Mr Been, you might want to familiarise yourself with the fact that UK fishermen sold a lot of their quotas to foreign ownership, especially England which is now well over 50% foreign owned. You can't force people to sell them back despite what the Express may have told you... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52420116

TheCat Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The Lounge has got threads on anything and > everything, from the serious to the downright > bizarre....if you have no interest in a topic...or > feel that you are being 'trolled' becuase somebody > says something you don't like....just don't read > it, and certainly don't respond.... Nice try at moving the goalposts again, fails to detract from the point I made that complaining that the Guardian shows a lack of balance, when you show none yourself, does come across as a tad hypocritical. As for trolling itself, I don't mind it as it can sometimes be subjectively clever and witty, make a valid point, so shouldn't be seen exclusively as a negative thing. > I actively read the Guardian to the extent I would > classify myself a 'Guardian reader'..am I also > trolling myself?..... Of course you do, how else would you come up with your 'ammunition'?...

He's been told to save his resignation for the upcoming 'back-to-school' fiasco...

Lots of reasons for someone to cough, hay fever for one this time of year, and as for ''red in the face and sweating'', weren't we in the middle of a heatwave two weeks ago? Makes me wonder why we bother with the NHS when we have the likes of Mr Been among us who can diagnose from afar...

TheCat Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > More 'balance' from our friends at the Graun.... Perhaps you should start a thread trolling Telegraph readers, you know, for balance...

Exactly snowy, the US and NZ constitutions and election rules are completely different, NZ's, and I believe the UK's too, allows for delaying an election, the US's doesn't, even leading Republicans have come out and said the election can't be delayed, come Jan '21 Trump will stop being the US president unless he wins the Nov election. Even if the election was somehow delayed Trump couldn't remain President, yet he want's to do both. Recently he's spoke about remaining President beyond the fixed 2 terms, whereas genuinely successful Presidents have had to step down after their second term because that's what's required constitutionally. The man is deranged, have you read his 'tribute' to his recently deceased bother, it's all about him, quite extraordinary. Do you seriously think Trump would ask for a delay if he was polling 60+% like Ardern currently is? Ardern would win a landslide, she's clearly putting the health of the country before politics. The two countries have had completely different strategies in dealing with Covid, NZ wanted to hit the virus 'hard and early' by having a total lockdown, which until this recent outbreak (minuscule compared to the US's daily rate of cases) was extremely successful compared to most countries. Delaying the election by a month is a continuation of this strategy and hopefully will reap similar results. Whereas with the US there has been no coherent strategy, no total lockdown, so what would delaying the US election actually achieve apart from Trump trying to avoid an election defeat? As usual it's about Trump putting himself before country, just as he always has...

seenbeen Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > at least he did a U turn under unprecedented > circumstances unlike that rubbish Labour > government we had for years! Yes, let's blame Covid for the leveling down algorithm, those pesky Chinese get everywhere...

Gav channeling his inner Robert Mapplethorpe...

01337 is Ladybank in Scotland, this was 01775 (Spalding). Curious to know why leave a message in a foreign language, is the scam that you are charged the earth for answering the call?...

Had a strange call earlier to my mobile, not recognising the landline number I didn't answer the call thinking it was someone probably selling/scammimg etc, then Googled the code, it was a Spalding (Lincs) number, while doing that I got an alert to say a voicemail message had been left, then listened to what sounded like a 20sec message in Chinese. All very odd...

Have I Got News For You, satirical show... As the government faces mounting criticism for its handling of the A-level results fiasco, Test and Trace staff are asked to focus their attentions on trying to locate Boris Johnson.

seenbeen Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Why should Boris keep several dogs and bark > himself? Robert Harris, author... Prime Ministers invariably shape their governments in their own image. This blustering, bumbling amateurishness is not temporary. It will go on as long as Johnson is in No 10.