Voting to remain

[Earl Aelfheah]

The idea that we'll get better trading terms after we leave is ridiculous, regardless of the balance of trade. The best possible post Brexit outcome would be to retain much of our preferential access to the single market, which would mean continuing contributions to the eU budget and abiding by most Eu regulations. So in other words, things would remain much as they are now, eccept we would have no influence over Eu policies and no voting rights. Any better deal would put the eus own members at a competitive disadvantage and reward (thereby encouraging further) exits. It's not going to happen.

[????]

Loz Wrote:

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> TheArtfulDogger Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > Percentage often hides the real numbers

> >

> > What is the actual amount in pounds shillings

> and

> > pence

> >

> > 8% of a billion, for example us a lot more than

> 44% of ten thousand, therefore don't quote

> > percentages but real monetary terms ..

> >

> > There are lies, damn lies and statistics

>

> Quite often I'd agree, but in this case the

> percentages are the more pertinent as they show

> the effect on each economy.

>

> Put it this way, if trade between the UK and the

> EU stopped tomorrow, which economy would be far,

> far more effected?

Ireland's

There's not an EU economy as a single entity Loz your comparison is meaningless

[Earl Aelfheah]

I am intrigued genuinely. Does anyone think we'll end up with better trade terms following an exit? What do you think we'll get- full access to the single market without having to comply with product standards for example?

[root]

malumbu Wrote:

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...

>

> So much of what has been raised in the debate has

> nowt to do with the EU and is dependent on

> domestic politics. The main reason the last lot

> delivered anything on the environment was due to

> the Lib Dems, now they have gone.....

> ...

Environmental protection is (rightly so) quite high up on EU agenda:

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/basics/home_en.htm

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/legal/implementation_en.htm

Then you get the likes of Farage:

[TheArtfulDogger]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> TheArtfulDogger Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > Percentage often hides the real numbers

> >

> > What is the actual amount in pounds shillings

> and

> > pence

> >

> > 8% of a billion, for example us a lot more than

> 44% of ten thousand, therefore don't quote

> > percentages but real monetary terms ..

> >

> > There are lies, damn lies and statistics

>

> Quite often I'd agree, but in this case the

> percentages are the more pertinent as they show

> the effect on each economy.

>

> Put it this way, if trade between the UK and the

> EU stopped tomorrow, which economy would be far,

> far more effected?

Taken from the governments own website, www.uktradeinfo.com

"EU Exports for March 2016 were ?12.0 billion. This was an increase of ?0.6 billion (5.7 per cent) compared with last month, and a rise of ?0.1 billion (0.6 per cent) compared with March 2015.

EU Imports for March 2016 were ?20.2 billion. This was an increase of ?0.8 billion (4.1 per cent) compared with last month, and a rise of ?0.1 billion (0.5 per cent) compared with March 2015.

In EU trade the UK was a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by ?8.2 billion.

The proportion of total exports to the EU was 48 per cent in March 2016. Over the past 18 months, this has ranged from 38 per cent to 48 per cent. The proportion of total imports from the EU was 51 per cent in March 2016. Over the same period, this has ranged between 51 per cent and 55 per cent."

Therefore as mentioned bandishing a percentages for a larger body (the EU) compared with a smaller body (the UK) isn't a valid statistic 🤔

Nice try but no cigar Loz (not even an imported EU one ! )

[pato]

I m not English but have been living in this country long enough to understand that leaving Europe will be plenty of risks for You and none of this risks are worth taking...

It might be better for You or not but why taking the risks??

One above the others: Do You realise if the LEAVE campaign wins You might have Boris as a prime minister??

Hope You realise that and the consequences...:)

[root]

pato Wrote:

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> I m not English but have been living in this

> country long enough to understand that leaving

> Europe will be plenty of risks for You and none of

> this risks are worth taking...

> It might be better for You or not but why taking

> the risks??

> One above the others: Do You realise if the LEAVE

> campaign wins You might have Boris as a prime

> minister??

> Hope You realise that and the consequences...:)

pato, this has nothing to do with risks. This is purely about Nationalistic sentiments and nostalgia/delusions of glorious days of empire. You know ...."Ruuuuule Brittania, tra la la la la"

[pato]

...I thought so...

[Loz]

TheArtfulDogger Wrote:

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> Therefore as mentioned bandishing a percentages for a larger body (the EU) compared with a smaller

> body (the UK) isn't a valid statistic

>

> Nice try but no cigar Loz (not even an imported EU one ! )

For reasons explained, of course it is meaningful. In fact, hard numbers in this case are meaningless as it won't show effect.

Think of it this way. Two people lose ?100,000 each in a failed business venture. One is an average person with a mortgage and a few quid in the bank, the other is Bill Gates. Does the hard monetary figure really explain the actual effect on each person, or would a percentage of their total worth be far more illuminating?

It's the same here - the monetary figures you are quoting don't show the effect on each economy. Your figures are, essentially, meaningless. And that's a quality, British built meaningless!

[Loz]

pato Wrote:

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> I m not English but have been living in this country long enough to understand that leaving

> Europe will be plenty of risks for You and none of this risks are worth taking...

>

> It might be better for You or not but why taking the risks??

Or, more succinctly put...

[DulwichFox]

Being in the E.U is like a bird inside an egg..

You need to crack that shell and find out was is on the outside..

Get out.. Take control.. Have some say..

DulwichFox

[root]

DulwichFox Wrote:

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> Being in the E.U is like a bird inside an egg..

>

> You need to crack that shell and find out was is

> on the outside..

>

> Get out.. Take control.. Have some say..

Yep, delusions of grandeur

[Alan Medic]

Anyone know if polling cards have been sent out yet?. I haven't received one.

[root]

Alan Medic Wrote:

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> Anyone know if polling cards have been sent out

> yet?. I haven't received one.

I've received mine. Suppose cos I'm registered using my Irish passport.

[Alan Medic]

I am registered. I just haven't received a card.

[edcam]

Posted my vote yesterday (will be in Italy on the day, taking full advantage of my visa-free travel within the EU.)

[TheCat]

Getting very sick of some media outlets and people on social media implying that leaning towards voting to leave automatically means you're a racist or xenophobe. Because seemingly there couldn't possibly be any other reason that might be a valid consideration for such a huge economic, political, and social decision.

The level of ignorance required for this viewpoint is only eclipsed by the racists themselves.

[root]

TheCat Wrote:

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> Getting very sick of some media outlets and people

> on social media implying that leaning towards

> voting to leave automatically means you're a

> racist or xenophobe. Because seemingly there

> couldn't possibly be any other reason that might

> be a valid consideration for such a huge economic,

> political, and social decision.

> ...

Actually you summed it up. The only reasons to leave the EU are racist and xenophobic. The delusion that by virtue of being English you are better than everyone else and Europe and the rest of the world will crawl to you on their knees begging to be invited to your birthday party. The delusion that your kids and grandkids will have more opportunities growing up on this island (well, part of one after Scotland and Wales secede) instead of part of a 500 million strong and culturally and economically diverse continent.

Other reasons do exist, such as being a total troglodyte who doesn't like European constraints such as environmental policies whose long term sustainability a free market or local short term gains don't guarantee.

[Seabag]

DulwichFox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Being in the E.U is like a bird inside an egg..

>

> You need to crack that shell and find out was is

> on the outside..

>

> Get out.. Take control.. Have some say..

>

> DulwichFox

Bring on the glorious 12th, where we get to shoot the first birds of the season

[Loz]

root Wrote:

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> Actually you summed it up. The only reasons to leave the EU are racist and xenophobic.

As a solid Remainer, I would say that calling the other side names really doesn't help.

[Jules-and-Boo]

oh how cutting. Xenophobic to leave? Racist, even? Perhaps protecting the remaining infrastructure is not of value? Perhaps we should just allow everyone to squash this country and resources even more, in case we should be so open to such criticism?

[Earl Aelfheah]

I haven't heard a convincing economic argument for Brexit. The idea that we'll get a better deal following a vote to leave, (that all 27 member states will agree to our re-entering the single market, with full access, but exempted from the regulations which govern it) really does strike me as deluded.

On immigration there are some more reasoned arguments (although I disagree with them). It is self-evident that free movement goes hand in hand with membership of a single market and if you think this a bad thing then maybe one could consider the economic pain worth it, to restrict movement in and out of Europe.

Of course this completely negates the benefits UK citizens get from free movement, the fact that 1.2 million people born in the UK live in other EU countries and that we all have the opportunity to travel and work anywhere within the EU. But again, I can see that some might consider this worth losing if they feel strongly enough about immigration in.

Personally though, I take issue with the whole premise that immigration is a problem. The view that immigration is straining public services seems to ignore the fact that the NHS is kept afloat by immigrant labour (by doctors and nurses from overseas), and that, as a net contributor to the economy, helps fund public services in the first place. The truth is that the level of public service provision is a matter of public policy. Moves to cut immigration and pull out of the single market are very unlikely to lead to better public services in my opinion. Neither is it plausible that Gove and Boris are truly advocating investing heavily in the public sector with or without Brexit, which just makes their claims on the topic incredibly cynical.

But even if you are ?anti immigration?, it is by no means a given that post-Brexit, immigration levels will come down significantly. The claim often made, that it is the EU which is preventing immigration coming down to the 'tens of thousands' is not true. The majority of immigration to the UK comes from outside the EU (which is entirely within our control) and is itself in the hundreds of thousands.

Personally, I just haven?t heard an argument which convinces me we will benefit from ?Brexit?.

[Jeremy]

I'm firmly "remain" from a point-of-view of trade and commerce. But can appreciate why others may feel there's much to be gained by breaking free from such a hugely bureaucratic body. It's a complicated matter... not just an issue of far-right xenophobia.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Immigration does seem to be the issue which has the most traction for the leave campaign though.

[TheCat]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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> I haven't heard a convincing economic argument for

> Brexit.

I dont think that's an unreasonable comment, both sides have made a shambles of presenting a competent economic argument. For what it's worth, as a Leaver, my own thoughts on economics are this....

Having plenty of time on my hands, I've read the 90 page PwC report on the economic impact, and the IMF report as well. My simple takeaway is that the longer term economic impact is negligible and within the margin of forecasting error. All reports I've seen say GDP will be somewhere between 0.5% and 3% worse by ~2030 under a brexit scenario. On a 15 year forecast, in my view, these numbers are less than rounding errors with so many variables. Yes, some areas of the economy will suffer, and others will do better, but the overall impact to my mind is a wash. Also, I do concede that the shorter term uncertainty means there will likely be a slow down, possibly even a recession, in the immediate few years after brexit, from which we will recover and accelerate back towards the pre-brexit growth path in the ensuing years. Im making this decision based on the long term/once in a generation argument, hence the economic impact of brexit I dont think is a key differentiator to my decision.

Also, having the ability to be able to better forecast population and demographics, will hopefully mean that our economlic forecasts can improve in accuracy themselves...