Could the Tories lose their majority?

[Blah Blah]

So now we know that 24 Tory won marginal constituencies ommitted expenses from hotel expenditure to travel in their campaign accounts, that if included would have meant an overspend, which is a criminal offence, that can mean both a fine and up to a year in prison for the MP concerned and/or the electoral agent they used.

Tory central office is trying to explain it away as an administrative error and that those expenses were part of central campaign funds relating to the battle bus. But they didn't declare them there either.

If the electoral commission rules that the spending was local, not central, are we going to see bi-elections, of which the Tories only have to lose six, to lose their majority.

Interesting times.

[DovertheRoad]

Lose majority over some pringles,a cheeky Toblerone and a G&T? And handover to the well organised machine that is Labour under Corbyn? Lol.

[Blah Blah]

If the electoral commission decide they overspent there will have to be bi-elections and prosecutions. Given that most of those Tory seats were won with margins of between 300 and 3000 votes, there is a good possibility they could lose enough seats to lose their majority. We saw what happens when electoral fraud takes place in Tower Hamlets. Overspending on campaign limits is also electoral fraud. It's very serious.

[Loz]

Actually, only 22 of the 24 were won by Tories. It's very unlikely they would lose all 22 (especially to Corbyn-led Labour) and they still have 8 DUP MPs that will almost certainly support them if required, though at some cost to the treasury...

[Blah Blah]

They don't have to lose them to Labour. Pretty much any other party would join a coalition to overturn the Tory majority. And they only have to lose 6 to lose that majority, and only 10 to wipe out the DUP factor. Given that most of the seats were won with majorities of less than 3000 votes, you would expect the other parties to work hard to get their voters out. I think it could be an interesting exercise and only a fool would never say never at the moment.

[Blah Blah]

And just to add that I find the silence on this deafening. Electoral fraud is serious, except it seems when the Tories are at it. The exposure of this is solely down to the excellent journalists at Channel 4, the only media organisation it seems that has no qualms of exposing corruption irregardless of the political party guilty of it.

[peckham_ryu]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> And just to add that I find the silence on this

> deafening.

True - the other main parties don't seem to have done a very visible job of complaining. Which can only mean they're all at it :-/

[Otta]

It's all Brexit brexit brexit, that's certainly all the BBC have got at the moment. Totally tired of hearing about it already.

[DovertheRoad]

Surely we've all wangled expenses with the mini bar at some point in time. Couldn't ever bring myself to do the pay per view adult channel though...

[Jules-and-Boo]

I concur...the terrifying sound of silence.....

[Blah Blah]

I too am fed up of the EU Brexit stuff. It's media overload. Looking forward to when all these damn elections are over.

[Henry_17]

Blah,

For clarity, if this scenario you spell out plays out, would you view it in the spirit of democracy that we have a change of government due a few spads not having stayed outside the ring road? And / or do you believe the public were defrauded, and would have voted differently had they known that these MPs had overspent their campaign budgets with respect to hotels?

[Blah Blah]

I think it would be in the spirit of democracy to re-run those elections yes. Criminal fraud is serious, esp when it comes to elections. It is also the case that in marginal seats, foot soldiers are extrememly important and effective in reaching voters. The reason why there are spending limits set in law is so that no party can outspend another to victory. These overspends paid for party activists to stay in the constitutency for the puspose of campaigning on behalf of the MP standing. So yes, it matters deeply.

[Loz]

But was it 'criminal fraud'? My understanding was it all involved a bus that toured various electorates. The expenses were charged to a national expense centre, where they now understand it should have been divvied up amongst each electorate budget.

[Blah Blah]

No they weren't charged to the national expenses at all. They were left off any accounting completely.

And the rules are clear on what constitutes national and local spending. The cost of a hotel in a constituency to put up activists is a local expense. Head office are trying to claim that can be included as a national expense. It will be for the electoral commission to decide, but if they decide it is indeed a local expense, then the electoral agent in those 24 constituencies of guilty of both overpsending on limits and not reporting those expenses. It IS a criminal offence to do that with a fine and up to a year in prison as a consequence for both the MP concerned and the electoral agent. It's pretty serious stuff.

[Earl Aelfheah]

My guess is they'll get a slap on the wrist and a fine, which would seem proportionate IMO.

[LondonMix]

I agree with rahrahrah that is the most severe outcome that's probable or that would be proportionate.

Its worth noting what the Commission has said on this to the press: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-mps-broke-election-laws-7467576

...the Commission added: ?We?d usually consider a national bus tour paid for and authorised by a political party to constitute party campaign spending where it is intended to promote electoral success for the party by the election of candidates standing in the name of that party.?

Given the above, I'd put the probability that this turns into anything at zero. That's probably explains the general silence you find so terrifying.

[Blah Blah]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3564798/Charges-loom-election-probe-Police-told-election-watchdog-prepared-prosecute-dozens-Tory-candidates-officials-spending-limit-breaches.html

Looks like the door is open for prosecutions.

[peckham_ryu]

As suspected, more evidence that everybody is at it: http://order-order.com/2016/05/17/top-libdem-avoided-overspend-by-not-declaring-battle-bus/

(Summary: Lib Dem didn't declare cost of bus for bringing campaigners to his constituency. Another over spender.)

[Loz]

Yep, Labour too:

http://order-order.com/2016/05/16/two-more-labour-candidates-didnt-declare-election-buses/

They would have to prove that these were *deliberate* attempts to overspend, rather than just accounting errors, for there to be a rerun of the poll. That's unlikely.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Whilst it would not surprise me at all if this is true, Guido Fawkes is not always the most reliable of sources.

[????]

Whilst the 'activists' of social media have been running mad on this for weeks, clutching at any straws to bring down the hated Tories - the silence of her Majesties Opposition and other mainstream parties speaks volumes....

[Blah Blah]

I don't think the Libdems ever have the budget to overspend on anything though. And what has gotten the Tories into trouble is that items haven't been accounted for on either their local OR national accounts (namely the hotel spending). There's creative accounting and there's not even accounting for things at all. Overpending at national level is just a fine compared to overspending at local level being a criminal offence, which makes no sense at all either.

Of course, whether prosecutions happen or not, the PR damage is done.

[ratty]

I am not sure any PR damage is done as most people don't know or care about this. Even me, who despises most of the govt policies, thinks this is a nothing.

[uncleglen]

If you knew the amount of expenses claims, and the nature of them, that goes on at Union level your eyes would water....