Dulwich housing market

[Earl Aelfheah]

The drops in Wandsworth are at least partly to do with all the awful 'luxury' riverside apartments / money laundering units not selling so well as they have previously.

[nxjen]

Ditto Southwark. It would be more meaningful if figures could be given for smaller areas within the borough.

[Angelina]

That's largely driven by new tax penalties on BTL and oversess investors as well as brexit insecurity - as well as prices that are hugely inflated.

Par for the course really.

I hope they come down a lot more too.

[DK_87]

There seems to be less for sale signs around the place than 1 or 2 years ago anyway

[JohnL]

Angelina Wrote:

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> That's largely driven by new tax penalties on BTL

> and oversess investors as well as brexit

> insecurity - as well as prices that are hugely

> inflated.

>

> Par for the course really.

>

> I hope they come down a lot more too.

Owning 30% of my home I really wish I'd brought more in 2009 when it was 15% down.

[Penguin68]

Ditto Southwark. It would be more meaningful if figures could be given for smaller areas within the borough. The problem then rises (for small samples) with the mix of housing sold. If in one period it's all houses, and the next mainly one bedroom flats, the 'average' per transaction will appear to plummet, although underlying prices may not have changed. That's why large sample pools are chosen, so that, on average, the mix of housing sold stays broadly stable. What you need is analysis by size of property and by location - but then, period on period, the sample (even the population) sizes are likely to be far too small for any real trends to be identified. For the vast majority of people at any one time these figures are going to be academic. They are neither buyers nor sellers. It is only when mortgage interest rates rise savagely and prices fall such that there is a danger of negative equity (and unaffordable mortgages) that house price movements are of genuine concern to most.

[DovertheRoad]

Holmdeneresi Wrote:

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> Data out this morning confirms that London is

> witnessing the steepest annual rate of decline in

> House prices since August 2009! Wandsworth bearing

> the brunt down 15% YoY closely followed by our

> very own Southwark off 12% over the last 12

> months. Ouch.

>

> https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/lond

> on-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

>

>

> Anyone care to share any experiences. Anyone got

> any great deals?? Great news, I guess, if you?re

> trying to get a foot on the ladder..

I think it's a better time to get a deal than it has been for 5 years or so. But still very variable. A house nearby to us just sold - no sign was ever placed outside - for ?1.5M which was within 3% of asking price. It was on the market for < 4 weeks. Good street, quality houses, in catchment to DV schools and was well presented.

Suspect the more average properties will now struggle....

[Blackcurrant]

The pattern over recent months has been that prices have come down for houses over 1-1.5 million but stayed firm or risen under 750k, due largely to stamp duty and loss of interest from well-heeled foreign buyers. So the usual argument that large period houses in good streets will do best has gone into reverse (and has probably been in reverse for a few years). Demand has been strongest for ex local authority, 1960s houses and so on.

Similar pattern nationally, with cheap areas up north booming while the southeast is weak.

It remains to be seen whether the weakness will spread further out of London. Brexit isn't going away, and interest rates are going to rise, so I think it will. I suspect the boom is now behind us and London house prices will stagnate in the long term.

[Angelina]

Brexit or not, the change in tax for foreigners buying UK property and for BTL has changed the dynamics.

[dbboy]

Stamp duty is crippling the top end of the market for buyers who if they purchase have to stump up a large amount of stamp duty that goes directly to HMRC even before they have have either paid a deposit or the first mortgage payment.

It then means they have far less to spend on renovation costs because of what they have had to pay to HMRC. This I suspect is putting buyers off and so slowing the market to the extent that vendors are reducing asking prices. And the final nail is I suspect because at the height Estate Agents over valued properties and continued to do so as purchasers were willing to pay these higher asking prices. Five years ago NO one would have dreamed of prices dropping as much as they have done. Houses are only worth what a buyer is willing to pay. Just take a look at Rightmove to see how prices are dropping locally across SE22 and SE23. Id suggest that the expectations of buyers also needs to be moderated so they expect less for what they are spending.

[apbremer]

Very little to do with Brexit but rather the absurd levels of stamp duty.

[Blackcurrant]

Brexit has affected the confidence of the kind of foreign buyers who've been sustaining the overinflated top end of the London market for several years. Before Brexit, London was the EU's de facto capital and commercial centre. Now it's unclear what London will become, and that uncertainty puts off investors. Taxes are another big factor but not the only one. The interest rate cycle is turning and property markets in many other parts of the world are coming off the boil at the same time as London. Mortgages are still very cheap, which has kept the bottom of the market buoyant, but that's likely to gradually change.

[bsand]

The truth is buyers are paying top dollar for shoeboxes in ED with it's relatively poor transport links because it has an indefinable 4 quid latte / 5 quid loaf cachet. Some first time buyers must be saying I can get a 3 bed house and big garden in Bexleyheath with top state schools for the price of a 1 bed garden flat in ED , and it's quicker to get into the city. I have just cashed out and made such a move couldn't be happier.

[FightingFit]

bsand Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The truth is buyers are paying top dollar for

> shoeboxes in ED with it's relatively poor

> transport links because it has an indefinable 4

> quid latte / 5 quid loaf cachet. Some first time

> buyers must be saying I can get a 3 bed house and

> big garden in Bexleyheath with top state schools

> for the price of a 1 bed garden flat in ED , and

> it's quicker to get into the city. I have just

> cashed out and made such a move couldn't be

> happier.

Nicely put

[JohnL]

apbremer Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Very little to do with Brexit but rather the

> absurd levels of stamp duty.

The top level (Nine Elms etc.) maybe Brexit related as many buyers are rich and foreign - and as said that effects the overall % for Lambeth, Southwark etc.

[fishbiscuits]

bsand Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The truth is buyers are paying top dollar for

> shoeboxes in ED with it's relatively poor

> transport links because it has an indefinable 4

> quid latte / 5 quid loaf cachet. Some first time

> buyers must be saying I can get a 3 bed house and

> big garden in Bexleyheath with top state schools

> for the price of a 1 bed garden flat in ED , and

> it's quicker to get into the city. I have just

> cashed out and made such a move couldn't be

> happier.

Happy for you.

No need for the sly dig though. If all you got from your time in London was bragging about overpriced coffee, then you probbaly missed a trick or two.

[Jules-and-Boo]

But there's something about the burbs that's a bit scary really.

It's like a one-way ticket to premature old age.

I'm ok with the overpriced coffee tbh. I love London (but not the edges)

[Earl Aelfheah]

bsand Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The truth is buyers are paying top dollar for

> shoeboxes in ED with it's relatively poor

> transport links because it has an indefinable 4

> quid latte / 5 quid loaf cachet. Some first time

> buyers must be saying I can get a 3 bed house and

> big garden in Bexleyheath with top state schools

> for the price of a 1 bed garden flat in ED , and

> it's quicker to get into the city. I have just

> cashed out and made such a move couldn't be

> happier.

Enjoy Bexleyheath.

[Sue]

bsand Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The truth is buyers are paying top dollar for

> shoeboxes in ED with it's relatively poor

> transport links because it has an indefinable 4

> quid latte / 5 quid loaf cachet. Some first time

> buyers must be saying I can get a 3 bed house and

> big garden in Bexleyheath with top state schools

> for the price of a 1 bed garden flat in ED , and

> it's quicker to get into the city. I have just

> cashed out and made such a move couldn't be

> happier.

Pleased you are happy.

But then why are you still looking at and posting on the East Dulwich Forum?

[bsand]

Why not - the reach of the forum is far beyond it's gilded SE22 borders !

[BigED]

Bexleyheath? Surely that comes under "protesting too much".

[FightingFit]

Sue Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> bsand Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > The truth is buyers are paying top dollar for

> > shoeboxes in ED with it's relatively poor

> > transport links because it has an indefinable 4

> > quid latte / 5 quid loaf cachet. Some first

> time

> > buyers must be saying I can get a 3 bed house

> and

> > big garden in Bexleyheath with top state

> schools

> > for the price of a 1 bed garden flat in ED ,

> and

> > it's quicker to get into the city. I have just

> > cashed out and made such a move couldn't be

> > happier.

>

>

> Pleased you are happy.

>

> But then why are you still looking at and

> posting on the East Dulwich Forum?

Why on earth shouldn't they?

[bsand]

This little extension to chrome lets you see price changes in Right Move..

https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/property-tracker/abgkpdjomdmemeefdefalbeogkmlmand?hl=en-GB

[Melbournemember]

Seems Like madness

[Reg Smeeton]

On Rightmove there are now nearly 400 places for sale in SE22, about twice as many as there were a couple of years ago and a sign that this is a buyer's market. If I was looking to buy now (which I'm not), I would look around for a flat or house that was last sold at least ten years ago - so the owner is probably sitting on a large chunk of equity - and I would offer 20% below the asking price. Most owners/agents would reject that offer immediately, but you only need one...