Dulwich housing market

[Penguin68]

If you are a 'real' person, wanting to buy a property for you and (if you have one) your family to live in then choose a property you like, in a location which is 'right' for you, at a price you can afford (or the nearest approximations you can to those). Expect to live there about 7 years (on average, although I have now lived in my house for closer to 30). A lot can happen in seven years - and nobody now knows what that is. Don't be put off by gloomy prognostications about price movements - or indeed arguments about some absolute 'right' price. Don't look over your shoulder at others who might be 'making' more than you on house values (a gain which, until it is realised, is theoretical only). If you are buying a home, then it is the suitability (and affordability) of the property as a home which is paramount. [if you are buying as an investment, not as a home, then different rules may apply]. But if it is a home you are buying, concentrate on that, and don't be diverted by whether it may, or may not, be also an investment. Trying to ride two horses is a danger, you may end up falling off both.

[Mick Mac]

LondonMix Wrote:

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> When people are uncertain, the hold off on major

> decisions. People may be more nervous about basic

> things like job security. That in and of itself

> is more than enough to reduce prices in SE22,

> regardless of how nice you feel the area is. Long

> terms I don't think the area is going into

> terminal decline but a short term price adjustment

> is happening all over London.

I was about to agree with this 100% - but then there are postcodes that do marginally better than others in a rising or falling market depending on current popularity of the area.

[LondonMix]

That's true Mic Mac. The impact won't be the same everywhere at all.

[Oldtincan]

Judging by the comments above on discounts it seems the market has already shifted from a sellers to a buyers market. In my experience this means the clearing price is now at the bottom end of the spread which is roughly 10% (the difference between what people are willing to buy and sell - like in the stock market). So instead of a house going for 5% above asking it will now go for 5% below asking. Looking ahead I think a lot will depend on the strength of financial services in the City which ultimately drives the economy in the South East. The FTSE may be at yearly highs but the all important deal flow has virtually dried up (black cab drivers are a good lead indicator here - ask your driver how busy he is when you're next in one) and if it stays like that we'll start to see job cuts in the run up to Christmas. This will knock the top end of the market which will ripple down through the lower end of the market. If on the other hand confidence returns and deals start to happen again then prices should hold their ground but I can't seem them making new highs until we fully understand the implications of Brexit. If you buy a house to live in and can afford the mortgage then none of the above should matter. If on the other hand you rushed to buy a second home/buy to let ahead of stamp duty changes in the Spring then you may have to wait a while to show a profit. If you have minimal equity in the property you may also struggle to remortgage at an attractive rate if you fixed for a short period of time. Ultimately though the fundamentals eg lack of supply, ageing population etc point to a firmer long term housing market. Good luck all.

[klove]

I know it's August (summer holidays etc.) but is anything selling? Seems pretty dead out there...

[Cats_pyjamas]

Yeah, it's pretty dead. But you can get a good deal I hear (on houses anyway, not flats.)

Anybody know what the going rate is on a 3 bed period house in Forest Hill/ Brockley/ HOP these days? Estate agent websites have prices that are still way inflated, and it's not possible to see the actual sold prices until the Land Registry updates.

Hard to know what's normal these days. Or whether more stock will arrive in Sept.

[DovertheRoad]

Pass the cheese will you Charlotte?

[Cyclemonkey]

What do you mean by "period house"? Every house is "period" given it was built in a specific time period. There is a perfectly decent 1960s four bedroom terraced house with garage and garden on my road currently on for ?620,000. If you want coving, a fire place and higher heating bills some Victorian speculative build will probably cost you a good ?50,000 to ?80,000 more.

[alex_b]

I think the other thing (that also happened in my experience in West London in 2009) is that people who don't absolutely need move to just don't move. So I expect there will be a dwindling of supply as well as of demand, with more sellers being ones in 'distress' who need to move.

[Oldtincan]

So London prices falling at their fastest rate in 8 years...

http://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/london-house-prices-asking-prices-in-the-capital-fall-at-biggest-rate-in-eight-years-a109891.html

[daveybigpotatoes]

But Southwark only 3.9% down so no great shakes.

[nxjen]

-3.9% is an average that covers the whole of Southwark and it will not be evenly spread throughout the borough. There are many high end expensive flats that will have come onto the market in the north of the borough in the last year, without these the average percentage drop would probably have been more.

[Burbage]

Oldtincan Wrote:

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> So London prices falling at their fastest rate in

> 8 years...

They mention "prime central London" and though that's a phrase that, in the mouth of a skilled estate agent, can mean exactly Thamesmead, I think they have the posh bits in mind.

In which case, it's only to be expected. That's partly because of the stamp duty rises, but mostly because our finest institutions are understandably reluctant to launder money while the FCA is still making a show of being a regulator. Those who can hang on, however, should do so. Whatever happens in the next few years, the chance of a government introducing sensible land or wealth taxes, like they have on the perfidious continent, look less than zero.

Which means, for the rest of us, stability and the certainty that rent reductions will not appear, in the way they never do and, as they never do, we won't miss them when they don't. Nothing to see here, in other words.

[daveybigpotatoes]

nxjen Wrote:

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> -3.9% is an average that covers the whole of

> Southwark and it will not be evenly spread

> throughout the borough. There are many high end

> expensive flats that will have come onto the

> market in the north of the borough in the last

> year, without these the average percentage drop

> would probably have been more.

If you read the article its the top end that's taken the biggest hit

[ddbangs]

Having a flat on the market 2 months prior to Brexit and still to this day, I can say that there has been a major shift in pricing. Pre Brexit, our 2br flat on Lordship Lane was going for roughly ?510k, no after nearly a year on the market, it has been reduced to ?450k and still having hiccups in selling. The housing market has affected all ends of the market, in my opinion...or at least this seller's market for sure! :/ Frustrating!

[MissKing]

I think there's still plenty demand for property and prices are going up. Brexit hasn't had any effect on the housing market that I've seen. Gvt changes to stamp duty have affected the top end of the market. House prices round here aren't falling, they are going up.

[Jeremy]

Good properties on good roads are still selling.

Less desirable properties (e.g. quirky layouts, or needing work, or on busy roads, or no outside space) seem to be sticking around forever.

[Blackcurrant]

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/03/buy-a-home-get-a-car-free-offers-galore-as-london-estate-agents-struggle-to-sell

Been falling at the top for quite a while now. Anything over 750k probably down 5-10%. Outer boroughs and cheaper properties have done much better but the slowdown could spread. Having said that, mortgages are getting cheaper.

Buy to let definitely over for now due to the onerous new taxes.

[MissKing]

Cyclemonkey Wrote:

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> What do you mean by "period house"? Every house is

> "period" given it was built in a specific time

> period. There is a perfectly decent 1960s four

> bedroom terraced house with garage and garden on

> my road currently on for ?620,000. If you want

> coving, a fire place and higher heating bills

> some Victorian speculative build will probably

> cost you a good ?50,000 to ?80,000 more.

Don't be pedantic. We all know period houses are victorian, edwardian, georgian styles etc. You sure can get houses built in the 1960's for cheaper - because they are less desirable.

[JohnL]

I noticed recently a big big difference between asking prices and sold prices.

[alex_b]

That said a flat next had three offers on the first day and went for a good deal more than the asking price.

[Blackcurrant]

MissKing Wrote:

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> Cyclemonkey Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > What do you mean by "period house"? Every house

> is

> > "period" given it was built in a specific time

> > period. There is a perfectly decent 1960s

> four

> > bedroom terraced house with garage and garden

> on

> > my road currently on for ?620,000. If you want

> > coving, a fire place and higher heating bills

> > some Victorian speculative build will probably

> > cost you a good ?50,000 to ?80,000 more.

>

> Don't be pedantic. We all know period houses are

> victorian, edwardian, georgian styles etc. You

> sure can get houses built in the 1960's for

> cheaper - because they are less desirable.

60s houses are actually getting seriously trendy. Just check the prices of genuine midcentury furniture - now highly sought after by the many people who've bought midcentury houses after being priced out of period stock. And values of 60s houses have held up better than Victorian over the last year or so. Ex-council properties are also losing their stigma.

Victorian houses still desirable but have reached unsustainable prices and hit by the high-end slowdown. Also more expensive to refurb and maintain than younger vintages - often a host of problems hidden behind the skimcoat.

[Tom Smith]

[wrong thread]

[Oldtincan]

I see the London market continues to take a battering.. zone 2/3 amongst the biggest of the fallers according to the latest Rightmove data here http://londonist.com/london/housing/london-house-prices-in-zone-3-fell-by-up-to-7-7-last-year

I guess the threat of a hard brexit continues to weigh.. as does the possibility of a Corbyn Government. Anyone care to share any recent buying/selling experiences??

[Holmdeneresi]

Data out this morning confirms that London is witnessing the steepest annual rate of decline in House prices since August 2009! Wandsworth bearing the brunt down 15% YoY closely followed by our very own Southwark off 12% over the last 12 months. Ouch.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Anyone care to share any experiences. Anyone got any great deals?? Great news, I guess, if you?re trying to get a foot on the ladder..