Brexit View

[malumbu]

Cheap comment

[malumbu]

So I get most of my information from the Archers. Mind you that Brexit supporter chancer gentleman farmer/dodgy businessman Brian has been showing his true colours recently.

The other source is a satirical cartoon called Family Guy that used to be on BBC 3. Not sure what has happened to BBC3 has it mutated into London Live? Anyway I digress.

So there is an episode of FG where they are at Ground Zero (before rebuilding). So it was the Iraqis that did this? No it was Saudis. Oh. But supported by the Saddam Hussain? No, Pakistan. So it was all the Iraqis fault, we'd better invade.

So we've made a bit of mess of the financial sector by taking too many risks/deregulating? Yes it's all the fault of Brussels/Eastern Europeans (delete one if appropriate)

And our overly bureaucratic NHS which at time fails to focus on prevention/public health and will be challenged by the ageing population. Yes it's all the fault of Brussels/Eastern Europeans.

And we've failed to invest in our traditional industries, move with the times, create quality jobs in our industrial heartlands. Yes it's all the fault of Brussels/Eastern Europeans.

And this has led to too much concentration of power and money in London and the SE. Yes it's all the fault of Brussels/Eastern Europeans.

Ah, I get it, we need to leave Europe. Invade Iraq. Build a wall between US and Mexico. etc.

Disclaimer, the above were probably not the best argued examples and I probably not explained industrial history, globalisation, shifts in power etc etc well.

[JohnL]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> What happened to that nice Mr Farage? I don't see

> him around the pubs of Westminster any more.

> Perhaps he is spending more time with his family.

Westminster Arms used to be his favorite, Maybe he embarrassed himself and has moved on to a new pub.

Considering I'm out so much the only famous person I saw recently was poisonous Katie :)

[EDOldie]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> I've got to repeat Mr Major even though he's very

> patermalistic

>

> The welfare of the people takes precedence over

> the will of the people.

>

> Paternalistic as h*ll but he has a point.

I'd say that is paternalistic or patronising at the very best. Fascistic at worst. This undermines any form of democracy by saying that, we the people, are simply not capable of deciding on great matters of state and it should all be left to a small elite group of politicians such as Major, Blair, the Cleggs etc. to decide for us and we should obediently follow their sage advice. Major is, in my opinion, one of the worst sorts of politicians, along with Blair. During the Major premiership he did more to centralise the power of the PM than any previous incumbent a trend that was continued by Blair and consolidated by Cameron. The Iraq war being a very good example of where the centralisation of too much power in the hands of one person can lead to disaster. I still think Blair should go to prison for that. ED(very angry)oldie.

[malumbu]

Drinks in the Westminster Arms (never liked it), the Speaker (brilliant pub, let down by the clientele) and the Marquis of Granby in-between the two (both in location and my views). What's worse is the double takes you get by passers by, as he is often outside having a fag. Smoking in the workplace, pubs, schools and restaurants will of course be compulsory when we leave). Actually he must quite enjoy Austria where you still get smoky cafes, restaurants and bars.

[JohnL]

Apparently Theresa May talked out of a chimney today

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-housing-speech-bricks-chimney_uk_5a9d2073e4b0479c0254dc6c

[malumbu]

Interesting as in the post Brexit world children will be going back up chimneys. They were good times, poor sanitation, slums, low life expectancy, epidemics, but we didn't complain. We knew our place Nigel and Jacob, with due deference to our lords and masters. Then the trade unions, the labour party, and finally Brussels came and spoiled things.

[JohnL]

But she's rolling now - the food industry is going to be asked reduce the sizes of packaged food by 20% and this will mitigate the food shortages after Brexit as no-ones around to pick or make our food.

As Marie Antoinette said "Let them eat Quinoa"

(we can't eat the cake obviously as we've got to hold on to that)

[JohnL]

Guy Verhofstadt in the UK yesterday (darling of the remainers) - very polite as usual but I wonder what will be said in a few days.

[JohnL]

Looks like a big NON

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-trade-plan-rejected-eu-donald-tusk-uk-relations-latest-updates-a8243721.html

We have to evolve.

[JohnL]

Euroclear is moving to Brussels - not sure how important the are but the numbers seem big.

https://www.ft.com/content/d466cd3e-2158-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80

[Blah Blah]

The moves by Trumo to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium also signal the danger in thinking we are going to be able to replace lost trade deals with the EU by cosy trade deals with big markets elsewhere.

[JohnL]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The moves by Trumo to impose tariffs on steel and

> aluminium also signal the danger in thinking we

> are going to be able to replace lost trade deals

> with the EU by cosy trade deals with big markets

> elsewhere.

I suspect whilst the EU can fight back against this - we would have to lie down and take it.

In other news, our broadcasting industry is now being targeted (as we lose the right to broadcast to the EU) ... by Estonia amongst others.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-07/estonia-brings-top-game-to-woo-broadcasters-mulling-brexit-move

[Blah Blah]

Yes, the impacts of all of this are endless. Still, a price worth paying for not having anyone to work on our farms eh?

[JohnL]

The Impact document is public now and as Faisal Islam comments

"In one of the final pages showing how there is no Brexit dividend (essentially the fiscal impact of non-tariff barriers alone outweighs the savings on EU budget payments)"

"And for those that believe the numbers; that the UK Government is actively pursuing a policy outcome with this range of calculated impacts, is a first in history."

https://news.sky.com/story/easy-to-see-why-government-wanted-to-keep-brexit-analysis-secret-11281647

[Louisa]

I don?t think anyone needs to panic just yet. There is absolutely no way any deal brought back from Brussels will be approved by Parliament. I think a second referendum will be held before the new year begins. I?m absolutely sure of it. If that happens, polls consistently hint we would vote to remain. Watch this space.

Louisa.

[poch]

Hope you're right Louisa! What about the riots on the streets as per Brexiteers claims re. what would happen in the event of a second vote? Would leavers really be as incensed as the likes of Jacob RM say they would? Or just more belligerant propaganda...

[JohnL]

poch Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hope you're right Louisa! What about the riots on

> the streets as per Brexiteers claims re. what

> would happen in the event of a second vote? Would

> leavers really be as incensed as the likes of

> Jacob RM say they would? Or just more belligerant

> propoganda...

I see no leavers around - maybe they really are older and not interested in that sort of thing, maybe there's other reasons - but I take any riot threats with a huge pinch of salt.

On the Remainer side The SODEM people have been loitering outside Westminster for months now (the guys with the EU flags and hats - they're harmless but really loud), Westminster staff actually directed Guy Verhofstadt to a back entrance to avoid them (as he's their hero) when he left parliament this week but they called him over anyway.

https://sodemaction.co.uk/

[SpringTime]

There certainly are leavers around but there are just a lot less on London. (And even fewer on the forum, of course.)

Right or wrong there certainly will be rioting if there's another vote. I've enough leaver friends who live outside the capital to vouch for it - and I believe them.

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> poch Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Hope you're right Louisa! What about the riots

> on

> > the streets as per Brexiteers claims re. what

> > would happen in the event of a second vote?

> Would

> > leavers really be as incensed as the likes of

> > Jacob RM say they would? Or just more

> belligerant

> > propoganda...

>

> I see no leavers around - maybe they really are

> older and not interested in that sort of thing,

> maybe there's other reasons - but I take any riot

> threats with a huge pinch of salt.

>

> On the Remainer side The SODEM people have been

> loitering outside Westminster for months now (the

> guys with the EU flags and hats - they're harmless

> but really loud), Westminster staff actually

> directed Guy Verhofstadt to a back entrance to

> avoid them (as he's their hero) when he left

> parliament this week but they called him over

> anyway.

>

> https://sodemaction.co.uk/

[Blah Blah]

Except the demographics of leave voters swing hugely to the over 45's and no-one in their right mind seriously thinks pensioners are going to be out rioting. There might be isolated incidents, but significant rioting I think not.

Besides, the predictions could not be clearer. There is no economic benefit to leaving the EU, none whatsoever.

And if the UK can not get an exemption to Trump's steel tariffs, there are going to be serious problems for Britians steel sector who export high quality steel to the US.

[JohnL]

It's incredibly difficult to riot if you have something to lose (like a job).

The way the 2011 riots were treated couldn't have been more serious. 2 years for more or less stealing a bottle of water. I remember being on the street and seeing a group of lads taking beer from Tesco's grabbing some and dumping the rest - just me picking one up from the floor for a drink would have meant a long prison sentence (and all the pubs had shut).

[JohnL]

Anyway nobodies quoted Luxembourg's PM (Bettel) yet and it's so good.

"They were in with a load of opt-outs, Now they're out and want a load of opt-ins"

[Blah Blah]

LOL, yes, that about sums it up John lol

[JoeLeg]

I think around here we all have to remember that the anti-EU feeling outside of London runs deep and sincere. There?s a lot of people who loath the EU, and to be fair while some of them are an excellent example of Churchill?s maxim that the average voter is the best argument against democracy, some of them do have good reasons. Everyone here knows that I believe most of the problems we blame on the EU were actually of our own making, but I?m not so hubristic as to assume the EU is a flawless institution; far from it.

The depth of discontent that would be stirred if we U-turned on Brexit might lead to some unrest, but more than that it would lead to the direct rise of parties which would make UKIP look like the Greens. That is the main reason neither Con nor Lab are willing to upset the apple cart now; they?ve had a taste of what happens when they relinquish power and are not about to do anything so foolish again! All of that also speaks volumes about entrenched politics in the UK, but that?s another discussion.

There will be no second In/Out referendum, because it would bring nothing but trouble. A referendum on the final deal is theoretically possible but I think the major politicians have had enough of referenda. Even Boris and Jacob know that though they won the last one there?s no guarantee they?d win any others.

[SpringTime]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I think around here we all have to remember that

> the anti-EU feeling outside of London runs deep

> and sincere. There?s a lot of people who loath the

> EU, and to be fair while some of them are an

> excellent example of Churchill?s maxim that the

> average voter is the best argument against

> democracy, some of them do have good reasons.

> Everyone here knows that I believe most of the

> problems we blame on the EU were actually of our

> own making, but I?m not so hubristic as to assume

> the EU is a flawless institution; far from it.

>

> The depth of discontent that would be stirred if

> we U-turned on Brexit might lead to some unrest,

> but more than that it would lead to the direct

> rise of parties which would make UKIP look like

> the Greens. That is the main reason neither Con

> nor Lab are willing to upset the apple cart now;

> they?ve had a taste of what happens when they

> relinquish power and are not about to do anything

> so foolish again! All of that also speaks volumes

> about entrenched politics in the UK, but that?s

> another discussion.

>

> There will be no second In/Out referendum, because

> it would bring nothing but trouble. A referendum

> on the final deal is theoretically possible but I

> think the major politicians have had enough of

> referenda. Even Boris and Jacob know that though

> they won the last one there?s no guarantee they?d

> win any others.

I think this is accurate. I do wonder how it is that some Londoners are so narrow-minded that they can't see why some many people living elsewhere would vote differently to them. Of course the voting options were far too simplistic, but I think that that some may have voted in direct contrast with London, seeing the capital as largely a remain camp - so almost voting against London rather than just against the EU.