European Elections

[teddyboy23]

Apparently a national comres poll shows the brexit party on 20% Tories 19% labour 27% lib dems14% .so possible the brexit party could take up to 46+ seats in a general election.

[peckham_ryu]

That?s a great analysis for tactical voters, thanks!

Johnie Wrote:

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> Gina Miller's new site may help:

>

> https://www.remainunited.org/be-tactical/

[JohnL]

keano77 Wrote:

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> I understand your views are sincerely held DR.

>

> However the Brexit divide is becoming irrelevant

> as the debate has now morphed into one questioning

> the very nature of democracy in this country and

> the suitability of our institutions. A second

> referendum will only add fuel to the fire. Let?s

> hope it doesn?t become a firestorm.

I see more anger on the remain side at present - if you follow twitter some of it is 'blue on blue'

Oh and Guido trying dirty tactics (creepy stuff) - if you google it ask who took the photo and why.

[JohnL]

teddyboy23 Wrote:

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> Apparently a national comres poll shows the brexit

> party on 20% Tories 19% labour 27% lib dems14% .so

> possible the brexit party could take up to 46+

> seats in a general election.

They need policies and a manifesto for a general election rather than just shouting 'Betrayal' - they remind me so much of the old ratepayers parties - socially right wing economically liberal - that won't win votes once people see what it really means to our lives, you can't go back to the thirties.

[diable rouge]

You also have to factor in the 'Farage Paradox', very popular with his former UKIP base as the BP polling shows, but equally revulsive to the rest of the country. Even if the 34% BP polling figure was accurate, who are the other 18% of referendum Leave voters voting for? The Euros are a protest vote, a free hit, May's deal is unpopular, yet a large proportion of Leave voters can't bring themselves to vote for Farage. The best tactic the official Leave campaign employed during the referendum was to sideline him, they would never have won with Farage at the helm...

[JohnL]

I didn't watch Marr this morning, but apparently Farage went off on one when questioned.

https://metro.co.uk/2019/05/12/nigel-farage-meltdown-andrew-marr-accusing-worst-interview-ever-9501369/

Farage: ?never ever use the word manifesto again? - there it is then - he won't tell us what his policies are.

[Jules-and-Boo]

Yes, if you heard the interview, he asked Marr to discuss current politics. Not that unreasonable.

[diable rouge]

It's not unreasonable to ask questions whether his past politics are reflected in his current politics, i.e. has this particular leopard changed his spots? Apparently not...

[diable rouge]

This is a YouGov poll for London, figures in brackets 2014 Euro Elections...

Labour 24% (36%)

Brexit 20% (UKIP 16%)

LD 17% (7%)

Green 14% (9%)

Con 10% (22%)

And for a GE, figures in brackets poll taken last Dec...

Labour 35% (49%)

Con 23% (33%)

LD 21% (11%)

Brexit 10% (UKIP 3%)

Green 7% (3%)

[Hemingway]

OOOH JEREMY CORBYN......oooh Jeremy Corbyn..............oh, Jeremy Corbyn

[Sue]

:)

[JohnL]

Poll shows (as well as some Brexit party gains) large Liberal Democrat and Green gains in London.

I still suspect there's a lot of "Don't Knows" in the raw data.

[DulwichFox]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Poll shows (as well as some Brexit party gains)

large Liberal Democrat and Green gains in London.

>

> I still suspect there's a lot of "Don't Knows" in

> the raw data.

The Lib Dems and Greens do not have many Policies of their own.

They are both just against most of the Polices of other parties.

[Sue]

DulwichFox Wrote:

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> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Poll shows (as well as some Brexit party gains)

> large Liberal Democrat and Green gains in

> London.

> >

> > I still suspect there's a lot of "Don't Knows"

> in

> > the raw data.

>

> The Lib Dems and Greens do not have many Policies

> of their own.

> They are both just against most of the Polices of

> other parties.

Eh?

[ed_pete]

DulwichFox Wrote:

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> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Poll shows (as well as some Brexit party gains)

> large Liberal Democrat and Green gains in

> London.

> >

> > I still suspect there's a lot of "Don't Knows"

> in

> > the raw data.

>

> The Lib Dems and Greens do not have many Policies

> of their own.

> They are both just against most of the Polices of

> other parties.

Or you could say that the other parties are just against the policies of the LD's and Greens.

What piffle.

[Sue]

:))

[Jules-and-Boo]

So, who is clear about what each party will deliver? I don't mean the empty promises they male to get your vote. Which party has the best record for delivering their pre election promises?

[Alan Medic]

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:

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> So, who is clear about what each party will

> deliver? I don't mean the empty promises they male

> to get your vote. Which party has the best record

> for delivering their pre election promises?

The Euro elections are somewhat different to a GE. In the case of these elections I see it as simply a case of voting for leaving the EU or Remaining. I'm not sure what you are getting at.

[Tractorlad]

It occurred to me last night that these elections are a week on Thursday and perhaps I should do a bit of research into the candidates and their policies. Could i find at least a list of candidates? Could I heck! Someone help please.

[Jules-and-Boo]

What I'm getting at...

The EU elections are only a chance to indicate what would happen if there were to be a second referendum.

The question is, which of our political parties show integrity, honesty and work towards delivering the manifesto (list of promises to electorate)

[diable rouge]

I don't think you can say any party has a monopoly on manifesto integrity, honesty etc. There was a panel discussion on last night's Newsnight about manifestos in light of the Brexit party not having one, asking were they needed, especially as there's a modern day perception that all parties never keep their promises. An important point was made that regardless whether manifesto promises are kept, they at least provide a benchmark by which to judge politicians against, otherwise they would have free reign to do what they like without any recall. That's how authoritarian regimes operate, so no surprise Farage should go down that route.

There are good examples whereby the public have punished a party for not delivering on their flagship pledges, the Lib Dems learnt an especially harsh lesson over student loans, and the Tories are suffering now over their failure to deliver Brexit. Likewise a party that has delivered on flagship pledges such as Blair's minimum wage and the Surestart programme, convincingly won a second term...

[JohnL]

Tractorlad Wrote:

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> It occurred to me last night that these elections

> are a week on Thursday and perhaps I should do a

> bit of research into the candidates and their

> policies. Could i find at least a list of

> candidates? Could I heck! Someone help please.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/european-elections-2019-candidates-mep-who-standing-eu-vote-full-list/

The process is that lead party gets top of the list and votes are halved - next highest gets highest on remaining list. The 2nd time you win a candidate (second on list) you have 1/3 of your votes counting - so on until all seats taken (edit: this isn't a good explanation but best I can do LOL)

[diable rouge]

There's a video on this page explaining how it works...

https://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/forum/read.php?20,1833347,2026342#msg-2026342

[diable rouge]

Farage is getting away with not having a manifesto for the Euros as it's seen as a single issue i.e. referendum 2.0, but Brexit if it happens will impact on every aspect of our lives. If only there were more journalists out there asking the Brexit Party challenging questions...

The awkward & revealing pause is back on @BBCr4today thanks to top questioning by @rosschawkins. ?Which bit of EU law is stopping us improving education or tackling child poverty?? he asks Brexit Party candidate in Peterborough by-election. Cue pause. A long one.

[diable rouge]

Farage's authoritarian mask slips, banning Channel 4 from Brexit Party events after their expos? that Farage is Arron Banks' bitch to the tune of ?450k...