Has the ED housing market reached the bottom yet ( II )

[snorky]

In order to generate more through traffic for the forum & to give the estates agents a chance to air their bogusly optimistic veiws, I have decided to start this thead

so, yes or not ?

[candj]

Given the way things are heading, I'd suspect that next year will be worse.

[benmorg]

for sellers there is a little bit of good news. I'm hearing that there are quite a few cash buyers around at the moment who don't want to risk putting their money in banks or the stockmarket and hence looking to buy property. Though they expect house prices to keep falling for a while, the money is perhaps safer in bricks and mortar than elsewhere in the current climate. This means that the next month or two are actually a much better time for sellers as there are buyers around. Could be a short-lived trend, as there are only so many cash buyers in the world and the government has been quick to shore up the banks by nationalizing the.

[Brendan]

Yes.

[Brendan]

No.

[Brendan]

Maybe.

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

Ooh, I love a masterful man who knows his own mind.

[macroban]

> I'm hearing that there are quite a few cash buyers around at the moment who don't want to risk putting their money in banks or the stockmarket and hence looking to buy property.

I've read these VI articles too.

[Jeremy]

Sounds like bullsh!t to me.

[benmorg]

Jeremy Wrote:

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> Sounds like bullsh!t to me.

there might be a bit of vested-interest spin exaggerating the facts, but there is certainly a trend towards cash buying, if ony because NOBODY is buying with a mortgage at the moment. i think it's unlikely that cash buyers can stop the crash, but they might well give sellers a window of opportunity. see article in the Times:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article4916890.ece

The average cash buyer is probably a bit of a predator, so they are probably driving hard bargains, but it still represents a chance for sellers to get out of the market if they want to.

[Keef]

Maybe when they say "cash buyers" they mean people going through schemes like keyworker schemes. We're in the process of doing so, and although we're obviously getting a mortgage, it's all taken care of, and we have funds available that put us in a good position to act much like a cash buyer.

As an aside, I'm new to it all, and really can't believe the bullshit that goes on!

[local estate agent]

If there are cash buyers out there, where are they??

[Bellenden Belle]

Yep, smug cash buyers are about.

Like vultures.

[Jeremy]

I am cynical regarding people buying houses because it's safer than putting money into the bank. Despite that article.

Aren't all accounts now guaranteed by the government up to ?50,000? If that's not enough for you, you can split your money between different banks. If that still isn't enough for you, you can put your cash into an Irish bank, where all of your money will be guaranteed by the Irish government. And if you are still in doubt, buy gold.

Buying a house (which will almost definitely go down in value in the short term) purely as a way of storing your money seems rather daft to me!

[benmorg]

talk of market recovery is probably premature after the collape of lehmans, even if there was an upturn in september. this article from the evening standard suggests that the banking crisis has well and truly obliterated any hope of recovery:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23571108-details/Property+sales+down+by+75+per+cent+with+50+viewings+to+get+a+deal+get+a+sale/article.do

Given that prices lurched down in the months after collapse of northern rock, and then lurched down again more dramatically this spring after Bear Stearns collapsed, it seems fair to assume we're now in for an even bigger lurch downwards over the next 6 months.

[benmorg]

local estate agent Wrote:

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> If there are cash buyers out there, where are

> they??

aren't a large proportion of your recent registrations cash buyers rather than mortgage-backed buyers?

[benmorg]

Keef Wrote:

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> Maybe when they say "cash buyers" they mean people

> going through schemes like keyworker schemes.

> We're in the process of doing so, and although

> we're obviously getting a mortgage, it's all taken

> care of, and we have funds available that put us

> in a good position to act much like a cash buyer.

>

> As an aside, I'm new to it all, and really can't

> believe the bullshit that goes on!

i hope you aren't rushing into the market just yet... if I were you I'd be treading very carefully at the moment, there could be a lot of fallout from the banking crisis. Prices could be significantly lower in only a month or two. there's certainly no need to fall for the usual estate agents' trick of making you feel hurried.

[Keef]

We are kind of in a rush for various reasons, but we think we're getting a good price, and although I'm sure they'll continue to drop, we're planning on being there a fair while, so as long as we don't over stretch ourselves we should be fine. Besides, we've knocked them down a fair bit already, and they're in a powerful position in that they don't need to sell (they were renting this place out, and I get the impression they own at least another couple of places), so we don't have the same power as we would if they had to sell to move on in the chain.

[macroban]

> they're in a powerful position in that they don't need to sell (they were renting this place out, and I get the impression they own at least another couple of places)

Maybe.

Why not do a credit check on the vendor?

[benmorg]

Keef Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> We are kind of in a rush for various reasons, but

> we think we're getting a good price, and although

> I'm sure they'll continue to drop, we're planning

> on being there a fair while, so as long as we

> don't over stretch ourselves we should be fine.

> Besides, we've knocked them down a fair bit

> already, and they're in a powerful position in

> that they don't need to sell (they were renting

> this place out, and I get the impression they own

> at least another couple of places), so we don't

> have the same power as we would if they had to

> sell to move on in the chain.

the best bargains are usually found by buying from a "motivated seller" who needs to move quicky and is therefore prepared to take a hit on the price. Landlords tend to be a lot more stubborn so it's harder work negotiating. Good luck with the move. Remember that if it falls through, there are plenty more fish in the sea, and although your personal circumstances may make you feel hurried, you certainly shouldn't feel hurried by the market. I don't think it's ever wise to rush into a buying a house, though appreciate that things like babies can impose awkward deadlines.

[SeanMacGabhann]

I might agree with this but I would suggest pretty much most people out there fall into this category and have done for a long time - the whole housing game is practically forcing people to be predatory

[indiepanda]

Let's get real. House prices have been and probably still are overinflated when one considers affordability. The only thing that justifies prices is the level of demand for the house, and that has been made articially high by banks lending people ridiculous sums of money that a lot of them can't afford to pay back in the long run.

It's hardly preditory to want to buy a house for less than someone wants to kid themselves it is really worth now the credit market has changed. If someone was naive when they bought their house and paid more than was sensible, should I be kind and offer them more than I think it is worth just to keep them happy?

Call the banks preditory for making huge profits out of people who they shouldn't have been lending so much money to, but to assume all buyers are preditory just because they don't want to make the same mistakes as the people who bought at the top of the market seems a bit harsh.

Anyway, most people wanting to sell bought long enough ago they are still going to make a profit, it's just its not the profit they were counting on when the market was higher. When prices were racing away ahead of salary inflation people seemed happy to think of that as real, but now the boot is on the other foot and prices are falling they don't want to accept it.

Personally I am keeping out for the forseeable future, we're just slipping into a recession and who knows how low prices will go in a recession with lots of city jobs going (for all I know mine could go so really daft to buy). I think with all the major commentators thinking prices will go a lot further, it's likely to be a self fulfilling profesy because there will be plenty of people like me who could buy but don't have to and will stay out till things have settled.

[jayes]

180,000 jobs will go over the next 12 months in the City alone...there has already been significant redundancies at our company which have not been made public. There are many other financial insititutions/asset managers whom have already begun the slashing of overheads. This in turn will have a significant effect on the "localised economies", many people will be unable to afford to keep up their mortgage payments and there will be significant further drops in the market as more properties are brought onto the playing field and the competition improves. My partner and I sold our place at the start of the year and are sitting on cash. I have to say that I can not understand why anyone would be buying in the present climate. We still have no idea what exactly will happen with all this fallout rom the global turmoil, but it is safe to say that there will be no improvement in the housing market in ED (which is already way way overpriced) in the near future. The only way is down and I predict it will continue for the next 18 months at least.

[Keef]

I think perhaps ED prices will drop more because they seemed especially high. Doesn't seem to make SUCH a huge difference up in Forest Hill / Sydenham.

As I said, if you're planning on being someonewhere for 5-10+ years, then I don't see the point in worrying too much. However, we're inm a situation where really our mortgage is going to be exactly the same whatever happens (complicated scheme) so doesn't make a huge difference.

Plus, if all goes to plan, by xmas I will have the most amazing uninterrupted views of London, and very very good leg muscles from walking up an insane hill! :-S

[SimonM]

>>Plus, if all goes to plan, by xmas I will have the most amazing uninterrupted views of London, and very very good leg >>muscles from walking up an insane hill! confused icon:D