Budget

[SeanMacGabhann]

So what are people expecting/wanting/dreading from today's budget

We can all grumble about drink/fags/petrol yadda yadda... but I'm interested in what you would do if you were AD, given the current situation

[Brendan]

Kick Gordon Brown in the nuts.

[Huguenot]

AD?

[SeanMacGabhann]

AlisDair

[JetSetWilly]

i think you missing another D mr macg. ADD, kind of sums up what the gov have been up to this past few years.

[louisiana]

Well first I'd like to stop him from having full-on sex with the bankers five nights a week B)

This whole 'heads we win tails you lose' lark is now beyond a joke. If banks are failing, let them fail, and stop bailing them out and putting us in hock for ever after. There will never be enough money to bail out all the failers. Admit it now.

[SeanMacGabhann]

Hmmm - so far it's easy pot shots and an easy target, although I'm mostly with Louisiana on an emotional level

Now that the banks have (mostly) been stabilised it's easy to say that money has been wasted, but history has yet to make a judgement. My gut feel is that, agaisnt gut instinct, it may have been teh right thing to do..

But the budget is about what happens next. Tomorrow the reviews will be in and various factions will be decrying X and Y - I'm just curious as to what people are thinking before then

[Tony.London Suburbs]

Politicians are like Monkeys........the further up the tree they climb, the more they expose parts of themselves that you would not rather see.....

Budget, Smudget...we're heading for a 1930's Recession and we will have to grin and bear it, untilthe good times return...

[louisiana]

SeanMacGabhann Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hmmm - so far it's easy pot shots and an easy

> target, although I'm mostly with Louisiana on an

> emotional level

It's not emotional. It's factual.

From the NY Times this week:

With the global economic downturn deepening and confidence in the financial system still elusive, the International Monetary Fund estimates that banks and other financial institutions face aggregate losses of $4.1 trillion in the value of their holdings as a result of the crisis. In its global financial stability report, released Tuesday, the fund estimated that financial institutions would have to write down an estimated $2.7 trillion in loans and securities originating in the United States from 2007 to 2010. That estimate is up from $2.2 trillion in the fund?s report in January, and $1.4 trillion last October. The financial crisis "is likely to be deep and long lasting," the report said, noting that global financial stability has deteriorated further since its October report, especially in emerging markets, particularly in Europe, where banks face more write-downs and may require fresh equity, even as businesses seek to refinance debt.

--------------------------

In other words, there is more to come. I could point you to many other similar published opinions in mainstream press.

The US may be through the worst of sub-prime, but what about ARMs? That saga has only just begun.

And unfortunately our banks and building societies are equally exposed... In Europe, we are the most similar to the US market.

>

> Now that the banks have (mostly) been stabilised

??

> it's easy to say that money has been wasted, but

> history has yet to make a judgement. My gut feel

> is that, agaisnt gut instinct, it may have been

> teh right thing to do..

>

Unfortunately we now have many financial institutions classed as 'too big to fail'. So the govt bails them out and then the country's debt classification falls through the floor and nobody wants the debt our government issues.

Here's hoping we don't end up in a basket-case Iceland situation, but...

> But the budget is about what happens next.

The budget is about paying our way. If the government is loading us with more debt for every future day, that diminishes our ability to pay our way every year from now.

[skidmarks]

So where did all the money go? The amount money in circulation has not decreased, if the banks lost it someone or some institution must have it ? or is that too simplistic? Is all this ?lost? money sitting in savings accounts in China?

[????]

If I was AD I'd resign and go to a job that suits my experience and ability..say a traffic warden.

[????]

the money wasn't there it wasn't real it was digital and based on companies and especially FS companies inflated balance sheets based on 'assets' that have largely been proved toxic. Basivcally 'we' the world, and us in the UK especially, have to get used to the fact that our wallets are about 30% lighter than we thought.

[Brendan]

A lot of it was hypothetical money in the first place.

Should have stayed with the gold standard. There is something intrinsically cool about all the money in circulation being backed up by heavily fortified underground caverns filled with bullion.

[SeanMacGabhann]

louisiana - I didn't mean to imply your response was "emotional" - I merely suggested that on (my) emotional level I am inclined to agreed with it, even if I think there is a wider debate to be played out

[*Bob*]

In all honesty, I don't understand any of it.

But I'm hoping to get stopped in the street by London Tonight so I can get all indignant about 2p on wine.

[louisiana]

I know Sean, I know.

And I was just saying that the evidence shows blah blah blah. That this whole line of argument is very firmly based in fact and evidence.

[SeanMacGabhann]

It is it is, but equally there are a lot of unknown factors as well. And that is the dilemma any chancellor finds him/herself in on a day like today. A lot of facts are available. A lot of arguments and opinion. If everything is as screwed as some people believe then he should just put his feet up and say "ah just leave it as it is"

But back in the real world where things matter and it's not possible to just say "politicians - load of bloody idiots out for themselves" there is a balance to be struck surely?

[matthew123]

The Government could put a freeze on the recent increase in MPs salaries, and also impose a minimum 50% tax on MPs expenses.

I'd also like a prohibitive congestion charge on all Trucks / Lorries in every UK town and city from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

[sophiesofa]

Maybe ADD should ebay the red briefcase to bring some money in.

[louisiana]

AD should acknowledge there is thing thing called climate change (and acknowledge that post-IEA 2008 autumn report things have really moved on and it's no longer sensible for the UK civil service to trot out the same old platitudes) and reflect this in government financial planning, plus incentives, penalties etc. Tinkering at the edges is just not good enough.

[SeanMacGabhann]

Agreed again

The thing that gives me hope (and I admit it is exactly the same thing that could, viewed differently, make me jump off a cliff) is this...

I don't have to listen to any of the gloomy forecasts anymore. or at least, I don't have to take them seriously. The "expert forecasting" is a busted flush. They don't really know.. so I don't have to listen to them

[louisiana]

"We have never had so much debt in peace time..." R4

I don't see "Whitehall efficiency savings" reversing that any time soon.

[Mikecg]

I expect the usual addages to my weekly expense in the cost of living stakes, Petrol Booze and Fags will all rise to an annoyingly extortionate level with a rob from the working man to give to the rich twist.

[bigbadwolf]

The more the pound decreases in value the more this thread will grow.

[louisiana]

I think it's time to start making your own booze.

My new vine should be arriving today....