CSI Dulwich...!

[lenk]

ianr Wrote:

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> Domitianus Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > What I think is this.....we are looking at a

> > random cluster. It is absolutely inevitable

> that,

> > from time to time, a number of incidents will

> > occur within a short period of eachother simply

> > through random distribution. It does NOT mean

> > there is a pattern developing.

>

> You believe that each of the recently reported

> muggings is a random event wholly unrelated to any

> of the others? :)

>

The truth is, you don't know.

If we lived in a small Suffolk village, you would be more inclined to suggest a connection.

But we live in a huge area in a huge city.

I would expect there to be more than a few people up for muggings about.

[ianr]

But if you don't know events are unrelated, you're not justified in calling them random, says a statistical hard-liner.

I don't rule out there being more than one group of muggers, but my money would certainly be on there being some commonality, given the geographical, temporal, and maybe methodological similarities. I also think it would be useful to act as if there may be some more events of the same type.

Taking note of perceived patterns is at the heart of good science and problem solving anyway. Some people's perceptions and inferences may be better than others, but don't throw the baby out with the dirty bath water. If you reactively adopt a random-until-definitively-proved-otherwise approach, you may take longer to reach useful outcomes than you might otherwise have done.

[louisiana]

When I lived in another European city and interviewed and accompanied the local police one day, I was led to believe that each mugger was responsible for several offences per day, all in fairly close proximity. So offences all within two/three streets; repeated change of shirt in a single safe house; emptied bags etc. all left at a single outside location.

[Lotty]

How horrendous! I am really sorry to hear about your neighbour, and hope that she is ok? What on earth is going on down Barry Road?! It used to be such a lovely street, but now seems to be becoming pretty terrifying to be out on late at night. What time did this happen? Where abouts down Barry Rd?

[lenk]

Lotty Wrote:

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> How horrendous! I am really sorry to hear about

> your neighbour, and hope that she is ok? What on

> earth is going on down Barry Road?! It used to be

> such a lovely street, but now seems to be becoming

> pretty terrifying to be out on late at night.

> What time did this happen? Where abouts down

> Barry Rd?

It's not terrifying. Have you walked down there at night recently?

the only sound you can hear is the sound of White Stuff chinos rustling together as people walk up and down it.

[Alexlaw44]

Police start WORKING instead of sitting in starbucks, please.

[Pugwash]

The Dulwich Safer Neighbourhood Team are focusing on Barry Road at the moment as there have been a number of 'incidents'

Sgt. Jackson and his team would be interested in hearing of any crime committed in East Dulwich no matter how minor it seems. Minor crimes when seen in a wider context can sometimes point to a much bigger picture. All the Dulwich Safer Neighbourhood Police Teams give a public report at the Dulwich Community Council and welcome feedback from local residents. I think our police team are brilliant, and very responsive to local residents concerns. They hold regular Police Meetings with residents and it is the local people who determine the priorities that they wish the police to follow. Unless you report an incident, the Police are unlikely to be able to act.

[Olive]

Yup - all interesting stuff! Neighbor's feeling better today - she's even 'praying' for the people who mugged her - I'm impressed. I guess all you can do is raise an eyebrow, smile and hope for better days....I don't think that's to 1950's of me in the spirit of summer and Wimbledon 'n stuff.....

[TonyQuinn]

Well said Pugwash.

Exactly what needs to be done. I have been in touch with PC Ryan and PC Philips of the local neighbourhood team, and they are both insistent that people report crimes, whether large or small, and only then things can be done. The best reassurance anyone can get is, with all respect to the Lenks and Domitianus of this world, talking to people who may know a thing or two about what is going on.

[evelknievel]

I'm sure the Police do want everyone to report every crime and provide input into how to prioritise their efforts, and they're very listeny when it comes to the regular Community Council meetings, but I'm more interested in what they actually DO with all that info. Do I think they investigate minor crimes? No, no I don't. There's a very specific example of this elsewhere on the forum where the poster had actually 'investigated and solved' the theft of her son's bike (see 'Kafkaesque' thread), but still couldn't get a police officer to actually do something about it.

I know that's only one example but it does re-inforce my preconceptions about Police response to minor crimes, which is largely based on the experiences of my own social circle. In terms of Barry Road, cynical maybe but I expect they have prioritised it on account of media exposure around those two coincidental murders.

That being said I think these hundreds of crime-hotspot-East-Dulwich-be-afraid posts are ridiculous for the most part.

[lenk]

If I were the police I wouldn't give two monkeys about minor crimes.

They win a few votes, for sure, but nothing like the kind of reassurance (and votes) you get for headlines like "POLICE FOIL TERRIBLE MURDER PLOT" or "DRUGS RAID NETS ?5m OF DEADLY MARIJUANA, 'STREETS SAFE AGAIN', TRUMPETS CHIEF'"

Which is what it boils down to - the level of perceived treat an individual feels.

Like it or not, the majority of money goes on these kind of crimes.

Useless, token measures such as Bobbies on the Beat etc are there to placate people who get anxious about a few muggings. Which are near-impossible to prevent anyway.

[Domitianus]

Pugwash Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The Dulwich Safer Neighbourhood Team are focusing

> on Barry Road at the moment as there have been a

> number of 'incidents'

> Sgt. Jackson and his team would be interested in

> hearing of any crime committed in East Dulwich no

> matter how minor it seems. Minor crimes when seen

> in a wider context can sometimes point to a much

> bigger picture. All the Dulwich Safer

> Neighbourhood Police Teams give a public report at

> the Dulwich Community Council and welcome feedback

> from local residents. I think our police team are

> brilliant, and very responsive to local residents

> concerns. They hold regular Police Meetings with

> residents and it is the local people who determine

> the priorities that they wish the police to

> follow. Unless you report an incident, the Police

> are unlikely to be able to act.

I am sorry but my experience has been very different from this. I have over the last few years reported the theft of a digital camera from a residential address and pointed out the distinct possibility that the thief was a paid cleaner/carer visiting the building at the time. If so, this person might well have been involved in a whole pattern of thefts and I thought that was well worth looking at (I mean a carer has access to the valuables of many vulnerable people). Level of interest from ED Police Station clerk? ZERO!!!! Have a crime number and go away.

I have also reported to ED police station the disappearance of two successive passports for me that were delivered by courier to the address I lived at within a couple of weeks of eachother (one being a replacement for the first one that went missing). Level of interest from ED police? ZERO!!!! Have a crime number and go away.

Since theft of passports could be tip of iceberg of people involved in identity theft, fraud, people smuggling etc, (a police contact from another jurisdiction told me they have a black market value of around ?1000) I think the latter incident in particular might have raised a few eyebrows. Not a bit of it!

I have a close friend who went to ED police station as part of a request for a CRB check as he was setting up a company overseas. The behaviour of the officer on the desk was so atrocious, threatening and offensive that he made a formal complaint. I understand that the senior officer investigating the complaint found the accused officer's behaviour (recorded on CCTV of course) shocking!

I admit there have been a couple of occasions where I have seen the police respond swiftly and well to incidents around ED but the negative experiences I am aware of and have been personally involved in far outweigh the positive.

I am all for the IDEA of a police force, appropriately responsive, trained, respectful, resourced and disciplined. Unfortunately reality, in my experience, often falls light-years short of that.

[Eliza.D]

Well the police should concern themselves with minor crime because those responsible will take the view that crime does pay and go on to greater levels of crime.

Anyway it depends on one's view of what is minor and what is not. If the crime is that minor then chances are it is not reported in the first place.

[evelknievel]

Lenk - I agree to some extent. Be refreshing if they were honest about it at least.

It's all political - as you say the 'TRUMPETS CHIEF' part is what really drives the priorities. Issuing crime numbers for insurance claims seems to be a large of what police work is made up of. In my opinion.

[Domitianus]

And no effective police force can survive without the support of thelocal community it serves. The police ae already despised by certain alienated parts of society and it seems they are quite prepared now to alienate their traditional supporters in middle-class, white, affuent areas. Not wise.

[lenk]

The thing is, those who moan about 'heathen petty criminals', single mothers, gangs of feral kids, and the under-educated/uneducated (non) working classes, never seem to consider that there might be some connection between the rise of the terminally feckless and the decision by Thatcher's government to let an entire generation essentially rot on a point of ideology.

All these 'heathen petty criminals'/single mothers/feral kids/thick proles who are now the focus of so much hatred are the sons and daughters of the people she put out of work; people who measured themselves by what they did for a living, who were abruptly told they had little or no further value to society (which didn't exist, remember), and who consequently, in many cases, didn't pass on any sense of social responsibility to their kids. After all, most of them had grown up seeing their parents or grandparents do little else other than get pissed and sign on, so it wasn't as if there was anything to aspire to.

And now everyone's about to vote Tory again as they seem to have forgotten all about this.

There's lovely.

[Domitianus]

lenk Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The thing is, those who moan about 'heathen petty

> criminals', single mothers, gangs of feral kids,

> and the under-educated/uneducated (non) working

> classes, never seem to consider that there might

> be some connection between the rise of the

> terminally feckless and the decision by Thatcher's

> government to let an entire generation essentially

> rot on a point of ideology.

>

> All these 'heathen petty criminals'/single

> mothers/feral kids/thick proles who are now the

> focus of so much hatred are the sons and daughters

> of the people she put out of work; people who

> measured themselves by what they did for a living,

> who were abruptly told they had little or no

> further value to society (which didn't exist,

> remember), and who consequently, in many cases,

> didn't pass on any sense of social responsibility

> to their kids. After all, most of them had grown

> up seeing their parents or grandparents do little

> else other than get pissed and sign on, so it

> wasn't as if there was anything to aspire to.

>

> And now everyone's about to vote Tory again as

> they seem to have forgotten all about this.

>

> There's lovely.

Utter claptrap! Imagine a government having the gall to insist on individual responsibility? Imagine a government having the gall to suggest that people had the responsibility and personal resources to create a life and future for themselves? Imagine a government having the gall to offer people a chance to create their own wealth and opportunity and then have the right to hold on to most of it without being taxed to the f***ing hilt? Imagine a government having the gall to say it is NOT ok to sit on your bum sponging off the state if you have other options? Imagine a government having the gall to insist that industries that are not profitable or competitive should not be propped up by the state, effectively creating simply another class of people vicariously dependent upon the government?

I think if you want to look at historic political reasons for the current moral malaise, you might care to look at the educational and social policies that have introduced notions of moral relativism and the notion that people are ENTITLED to whatever they want without having to lift a finger to actually make it happen. That certainly didn't come from the Tories! Step forward socialist government - take a bow.

URL below is interesting. Shows how again socialist politicians are screwing up the economy with interventionist approaches and hence undermining, AGAIN, the opportunities that people should be able to access to improve their lot.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5627352/Government-debt-Thatll-be-2.2-trillion-please.html

Bashing Margaret Thatcher is a sorry, tired, childish pursuit and has little if anything to do with the state we are in in terms of crime and social responsibility.

[Domitianus]

And letting "an entire generation rot"?????? Grow up!!!!! Are you actually implying that everyone from the Thatcher generation (if there is such a thing) has rotted or gone bad? Absurd! Pathetic!

[lenk]

Uh oh. someone's countering with links to the Telegraph site.

Sorry everyone. : (

The all-pervading mentality of craven, me-me-me self-interest and an almost spiteful disregard for one's fellow human beings, dressed up as a belief in the rights of 'the individual', is something she and all of her cheerleaders helped to legitimise.

We're going to disagree fairly massively here, so I'm sorry for even mentioning it...

[Eliza.D]

I in some part actually agree with what Lenk said. I was born in Tulse Hill, lived in Norwood, Brixton and Herne Hill and have lived in ED for the last 20yrs.

I was around during the riots and through the Maggie years and i do believe that we are still trying to put right the wrongs that she and her government inflicted, but i also think that there are other reasons aswell. Absent Fathers and a lack of male role models for boys in particular being one.

[Domitianus]

And there has been no civil unrest during Labour governments? Where have you been Eliza.D? Anti-war protests? Riots in British cities due to racial/religious tension? Anti-capitalist demos and riots with monotonous regularity by groups who have chosen to disenfranchise themselves (crusties, "professional" protestors etc) whilst the capitalist system they choose to attack continues notwithstanding to sustain the social and capital infrastructure that allows their protests even to happen? Take it you weren't listening to the news on MayDay for the last however many (Labour governed) years?

[lenk]

If we hadn't spent the last thirty years watching the governments of just about every major industrialised nation in the world pursuing economic policies that are Thatcherite in all but name, considerably fewer of us might have spent last Christmas peering into the economic abyss in the first place.

There might also have been fewer people going into politics, not out of any sense of public duty, but as a means to a non-executive directorship at an arms manufacturer, or as a sideline to their career as a property developer. People might be more inclined to think of decent levels of education, healthcare and public transport as things which make life more bearable, and which are therefore worth spending money on, rather than as simply a source of profit for whichever cowboy outfit that puts in the lowest tender. For 'trickle-down economics', read 'trickle-up morality'.

[evelknievel]

I soooo don't want to get into this discussion but I would say that any PM whose view is that there is no such thing as Society is very unlikely to leave a healthy social legacy. And I think that has been borne out.

If you hang around long enough most political ideologies are tried, and most, if not all, fall down somehow. You can't pursue a brutalist economic ideal and not expect humanity to suffer in the long run. But, you also have to be able to compete in a Global context, the world being what it is now. Somewhere betwixt the two - theoretically - is Nirvana. But of course Nirvana doesn't exist.

I'd stand in Lenk's corner though if it came down to it, the extreme ideological position that you're working in from is simply more humane. Kill or be killed, me me me, is all very well until you're the only one left. Then what?

That's a rhetorical question - like I said, I sooo don't want to get involved. D'oh!

[Domitianus]

lenk Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> If we hadn't spent the last thirty years watching

> the governments of just about every major

> industrialised nation in the world pursuing

> economic policies that are Thatcherite in all but

> name, considerably fewer of us might have spent

> last Christmas peering into the economic abyss in

> the first place.

>

> There might also have been fewer people going into

> politics, not out of any sense of public duty, but

> as a means to a non-executive directorship at an

> arms manufacturer, or as a sideline to their

> career as a property developer. People might be

> more inclined to think of decent levels of

> education, healthcare and public transport as

> things which make life more bearable, and which

> are therefore worth spending money on, rather than

> as simply a source of profit for whichever cowboy

> outfit that puts in the lowest tender. For

> 'trickle-down economics', read 'trickle-up

> morality'.

After how many years of Labour government (the one whch abolished boom-and-bust remember? lol) we have seen banking collapse, economic instability, housing bubble burst, significant rises in unemployment, appalling deterioration in education standards to the extent that universities are now having to offer remedial maths and English to students at UNIVERSITY level etc etc etc.

In terms of motives for entering parliament? I think you will find, Lenk, that the recent revelations of parliamentary impropriety have rebounded AT LEAST equally on LABOUR politicians. I know many company directors. With the exception of ONE of them (by far the worst) they have had no political involvment or aspiration at all (the one who did was a LABOUR councillor and parliaentary candidate). SOME MPs may become company directors but the vast majority of company directors acquire that status without ever going into politics.

Education, healthcare and transport????? Please, Lenk, do me a favour. All are systems (paticularly education) which have been decimated by socialist policies. And let's look at what else we have seen over the last fifteen/twenty years. The total, irredeemable collapse and descent into economic turmoil of just about every nation actually running an extreme socialist or communist model in what must be the saddest global economic experiment ever attempted. THAT truly was a decision to let MANY generations and entire blocs of nations "rot on a point of ideology."

Instead of considering the possibility that the current mess migh have been contributed to or created by 12 years of Labour government (which inherited a comparatively stable economic situation) Lenk seems to prefer to simply rewind time to the era of his favourite hate figure and blame it all on "THATCHER"!!!!!

Whatever the causes, absolving those in the present of responsibility by jumping in a time machine back to the 1980s and demonising somone then isn't going to help at all. This type of Thatcher bashing is pointless, default behaviour for those who won't take responsibility for their own circumstances and want an arch-villain to blame all the ills of the world on. It is the politics of envy and as long as people focus bitterness and hatred on others the will make no change in the hear and now.

[evelknievel]

We weren't really discussing the current economic situation were we? We were discussing the Police. But anyway this seems to have turned into a party political broadcast on behalf of two equally untrustable rabbles so I'm out.