CSI Dulwich...!

[Olive]

What the hell's going on? Two murders in Barry Road - Lordship Lane stabbings - and yesterday my lovely elderly neighbor (who is nursing her sick husband) was mugged in Barry Road. I've lived in ED for 14 years and have enjoyed the developments over the years. But this is just plain wrong. It's sad and indecent and whilst I've enjoyed living here, I fear for staying, not so much for my safety but for my happiness. Is it all going to the dogs and going to get worse? What are the Police and Council doing about supporting the local sense of well being and safety? Or is it unrealistic to suppose they can do anything? I'm genuinely interested in knowing what people think.

[Gimme]

Maybe the police should start patrolling Barry Road as it seems that is the epicentre of all the problems...

[Domitianus]

What I think is this.....we are looking at a random cluster. It is absolutely inevitable that, from time to time, a number of incidents will occur within a short period of eachother simply through random distribution. It does NOT mean there is a pattern developing.

Secondly, since we are all such a bunch of gossips, we are currently chattering and thinking about little other than these matters and everyone is suddenly mentally "filtering" for evidence of criminal activity. Hence, the glut of threads about muggings, sirens wailing, people running down streets, police car speeding around etc. I doubt there is actually any meaningful statistical significance to the events we have discussed here recently.

Also, Olive, where would you move to to be happier? I think you will likely find that EVERYWHERE in London is much the same, and most often worse, than ED.

[Ms T]

I, for one, am very sorry to hear about your elderly neighbour being mugged. It must have been extremely distressing for her and I do hope that she wasn't hurt or injured. My mum has, also, been the victim of a few muggings and it makes me sick that b......'s like these target the elderly and vulnerable and get away with it. (6)

[TonyQuinn]

I am bloody furious to hear about your elderly neighbour and furious about people constantly trying to calm people down with damn bloody statistics. One mugging of an elderly person is too much. One shooting on the street is too much. One gang fight is too much. The police are aware Barry Road is a hot spot for crime. Let's help them in calming things down. Report incidents. Call them up. Do not accept the crap any more.

[Ms T]

>:D I am bloody furious to hear about your elderly

> neighbour and furious about people constantly

> trying to calm people down with damn bloody

> statistics. One mugging of an elderly person is

> too much. One shooting on the street is too much.

> One gang fight is too much. The police are aware

> Barry Road is a hot spot for crime. Let's help

> them in calming things down. Report incidents.

> Call them up. Do not accept the crap any more.

>:D<

[JetSetWilly]

ms t, you should let your other half loose on barry road, and let all the muggers feel some PAIN.

[lenk]

Why not just report incidents to the police instead of working yourselves up into a frenzy on here?

You live in safer times than humanity ever has.

You?re more likely to die of diabetes than die as a victim of violent crime.

Diabetes is a boring issue to most people, and takes years to kill you, hence the lack of threads on here about it I guess.

Most of you are white, middle-class and reasonably affluent and within one of the most unlikely groups to be affected by serious crime.

Maybe count your blessings before you start yet another shrieking, disproportionate thread about crime.

[Horsebox]

Oh my actual gosh. Is it safe to go out anymore? It seems as though feral youth are taking over the streets of ED. It used to be so safe around here and there was never any crime. What's happened and more importantly WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT IT? I VOTE FOR CORPORAL PUNISHMENT!!!!1!

[Jeremy]

Horsebox, you're right. Hanging's too good for 'em - torture is the only language they'll understand.

[JetSetWilly]

BRING BACK THE BIRCH

[Ms T]

JetSetWilly Wrote:

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> ms t, you should let your other half loose on

> barry road, and let all the muggers feel some

> PAIN.

I quoted TonyQuinn's comment, because when something like this happens to you or someone you know, the last thing on your mind are statistics!

[JetSetWilly]

i give up.

[evelknievel]

JetSetWilly - Ms T! Surely would more likely be her brother then that administers the PAIN!

I pity the fool.

[Eliza.D]

When bad things happen we are all quick to jump on the forum and talk about it and give opinions, and that is the right thing to do, but as a community we can all do a bit more.

Become involved in neighbourhood watch schemes. Get to know our neighbours and their children.

Be that little bit more vigilant to the activities of suspicious characters and report things to the police.

If the police are aware that these things are being noted by the general public then they may be more likely to respond.

If you report something then take the name of the officer you reported it to, ask what they are going to do about it, even for the smallest crime get a crime number and follow it up.

Certain areas do have spates of incidents. A few years back Dulwich Village seemed to the target for a spate of muggings on lone women during the quiet times in the day. Seems like it is our turn at the moment.

[lenk]

Eliza.D Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Certain areas do have spates of incidents. A few

> years back Dulwich Village seemed to the target

> for a spate of muggings on lone women during the

> quiet times in the day. Seems like it is our turn

> at the moment.

No it isn't... you live in London in case you had forgotten - there's quite a lot of crime here.

[Ms T]

JetSetWilly Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> ms t, you should let your other half loose on

> barry road, and let all the muggers feel some

> PAIN.

;-)

[Domitianus]

TonyQuinn Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I am bloody furious to hear about your elderly

> neighbour and furious about people constantly

> trying to calm people down with damn bloody

> statistics. One mugging of an elderly person is

> too much. One shooting on the street is too much.

> One gang fight is too much. The police are aware

> Barry Road is a hot spot for crime. Let's help

> them in calming things down. Report incidents.

> Call them up. Do not accept the crap any more.

If you are "furious" about people trying to calm people down with statistics, I wonder if it is any more productive inflaming people's sense of apprehension by claiming we are in the midle of a tidal wave of crime. OF COURSE any crime of violence is repugnant but the OP in this thread seemed to query whether recent incidents repreent a sudden upswing in crime. I am suggesting it doesn't. Sorry if you would rather we were discussing a different subject.

[lenk]

To the petrified citizens of ED: I suggest you give a book called 'Risk' by the journalist Dan Gardner a go.

-- About all the scary things in the world and what degree of hazard they actually pose. Why we perceive a spate of crimes in small areas to be much more prevalent than they are. Why we will spend a disproportionate amount of time worrying about such things when we're more likely to be killed by someone in our own family. and so on. A good holiday read.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Risk-Science-Politics-Dan-Gardner/dp/1905264151

[TonyQuinn]

Domitianus, I am not trying to inflame anyone. Just stating the facts that Dulwich has been identified as a bit of a hotspot by the police. I've lived here best part of ten years - it's the best place in London - and I can feel that things have taken a turn for the worse recently. What we as a community must do as so eloquently relayed by Eliza D is be vigilant, report things to the police, be active citizens (that does not mean taking matters into our own hands). And soon enough, things will get back to normal. You say there hasn't been an upswing.....I suggest you call your local police station and speak to people in the know. I have.

[lenk]

TonyQuinn Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Domitianus, I am not trying to inflame anyone.

> Just stating the facts that Dulwich has been

> identified as a bit of a hotspot by the police.

> I've lived here best part of ten years - it's the

> best place in London - and I can feel that things

> have taken a turn for the worse recently. What we

> as a community must do as so eloquently relayed by

> Eliza D is be vigilant, report things to the

> police, be active citizens (that does not mean

> taking matters into our own hands). And soon

> enough, things will get back to normal. You say

> there hasn't been an upswing.....I suggest you

> call your local police station and speak to people

> in the know. I have.

there hasn't been an upswing.

If crime happened at regular equidistant intervals it would be a bit odd wouldn't it?

It doesn't, instead it follows the Poisson distribution and forms clusters.

People in a given area always overestimate the amount of crime.

Jesus this is boring, shall we move on?

[TonyQuinn]

Lenk, I suggest you leave this thread if you find it boring though I was deeply fascinated with your statistical bent. Olive started this thread wondering about the prevalance or lack of crime in Dulwich. A debate has ensued. Surely that is the point.

[macroban]

> it follows the Poisson distribution and forms clusters

I'd like to see evidence for this assertion, and if true, whether the Poisson frequency maxima are now increasing between the clusters.

[lenk]

TonyQuinn Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Lenk, I suggest you leave this thread if you find

> it boring though I was deeply fascinated with your

> statistical bent. Olive started this thread

> wondering about the prevalance or lack of crime in

> Dulwich. A debate has ensued. Surely that is the

> point.

Sure, OK.

It's hard to be objective on the subject for anyone who reads this forum as even the theft of a pint of milk warrants a 15-page thread.

Might it be that a positive feedback loop is occurring?

Everyone thinks they're being a great citizen by reporting every last minutiae of activity in the area.

Conversely the casual reader of this forum believes crime to be through the roof and harrasses their local police to DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT, despite actual personal risk being almost the same as it was 2 years ago. Or 5 years ago. Or 10 years ago.

[ianr]

Domitianus Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> What I think is this.....we are looking at a

> random cluster. It is absolutely inevitable that,

> from time to time, a number of incidents will

> occur within a short period of eachother simply

> through random distribution. It does NOT mean

> there is a pattern developing.

You believe that each of the recently reported muggings is a random event wholly unrelated to any of the others? :)

I'm not, BTW, interested in getting involved in any trend argument. On that, at least, I agree that any inferences from a few weeks' data would be premature and probably unjustified.