(odds for the Dulwich & West Norwood seat at the next) General Election

[Magpie]

If anyone has bothered to read any of the reports that come via Ian Duncan Smith's thinktank on poverty and social inclusion there are several interesting suggestions made to improve social mobility and prevent the poverty trap - from a Tory no less shock horror. Removing the 10% tax on low incomes is about the least progressive measure possible if your're seeking to help the low paid and encourage working over benefits.

Further, I can see the attraction of the status quo if you're employed by the state, and have benefitted by the last 5 years of excessive spending straight into the pay packet, and look forward to a final salary pensions. The rest of us tend to question why we need bullying outreach workers at 40k a pop.

Also probably not a popular view on here, but a government which has a "doors wide open" policy on immigration can hardly be seen as beneficial to the low paid as the net result is pressure on wages and competition for housing and healthcare.

[Magpie]

PS I don't think the Tories have a chance round here but tactical voting could be used to unseat Tessa - I remember her dumping the hubbie then taking him back on the quiet when the scandal had died down.

[cjanker]

Has anyone else received an unsolicited phone call from Labour in the last two days, received an unsolicited letter from Labour in the last two days, and seen this thread keep being bumped back to the top of the list for the last two days? No? Just me then.

[????]

er...this is a thread about odds/betting on the next election that has meandered into a political debate I don't think it's anything more 'sinister' than that!

[red devil]

2/1 Quids is in on it...

[iamyamyam]

I love the idea that there are odds on this election. I'm no gambler, or economist for that matter, but it seems a bit perverse to offer odds to the people who can detemine the result. Is the forum the place to arrange a betting syndicate? could the voters of DAWN all stick in ?10 each and then vote Lib dem? we'd all come away with ?200 and a new local MP who, according to Pugwash spends a lot of time working in the community!!!

Incidently the boundary changes are a bit more extensive than Bic basher highlighted, see

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/dulwichandwestnorwood

the labour areas of Peckham rye ward and south camberwell which are transferrd into harriet harmans seat are replaced by other traditional labour wards around brixton. I really don't think the tories can win here

[Magpie]

The whole are of political betting is pretty strange - it is not a big enough market (outside general elections bets on outright winner) for bookies to calculate accurate odds, therefore there are great opportunities to make money. The Lib dem odds at 20/1 seem a good example of this

[iamyamyam]

do they offer odds on council elections? I hope not, you can win a council set with ~1000 votes, that really is dodgy

[????]

No! That would be mad as we could influence that! But they offer odds on plenty of public votes such as X-factor, Strictly etc etc

As a student of gambling rather than Phsepholgy(???) I can say that Magpie's hit the nail on the head. For the big and normal sporting events the bookies odds tend to be pretty near to probability or they are also adjusted to reflect the risk on their book - eg England are normally shorter odds for the World Cup than they should be as so much money is bet on them, they can also try and attract money away from favourites by pushing odds out away from those with a decent chance to attract money in there. However, in araes where they really can't summon market expertise or traditional stats of results their odds are often out of kilter and in this case if you can really get the Lib Dems at 20s that represents real value IMO and I'm gonna look at it!

A few years back the odds on 'hole in ones' in golf were badly out of kilter and some shrewd punters made a killing - most bookies now have sophisticated dataanalysis teams and datamining programmes that try and keep their starting odds near to the stats and then adjust their books as the money comes in to maximise their profit. It's hardly done on the hoof and by indivuduals anymore just all stats.

PS If you do want to get a bet on England in the World Cup odds are normally better with an overseas bookmaker.

[????]

PPS Can I add the disclaimer that gambling's a mugs game, Labour will probably win this seat (but 1/5 on no thanks) so although 20/1 does look good value don't put your house on it

[Bic Basher]

I imagine the majority of the Tory/Lib Dem vote for this seat will come from Dulwich with Labour the majority in the Lambeth wards.

[Smiler]

What other things can you bet on?

Quite fancy a trip to a betting establishment on Lordship Lane with the Bugaboo.

[dc]

Bic Basher Wrote:

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> I imagine the majority of the Tory/Lib Dem vote for this seat will come from Dulwich with Labour the majority in the Lambeth wards.

For what it's worth I posted these figures last year:

Votes for the GLA Member for Lambeth & Southwark in East Dulwich Ward - 1st May 2008:

                      Lab        Tory      LibDem    Green

East Dulwich  37.0%   18.1%   24.0%     14.4%

[????]

Smiler Wrote:

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> What other things can you bet on?

>

> Quite fancy a trip to a betting establishment on

> Lordship Lane with the Bugaboo.

Bookies are the only buggyfree places on LL....by law

[tasty_snacks]

i disagree that these odds are out because of a lack of info. it'd be relatively easy to calculate probability of a result, based on average swing as per political polls; which in any case are sufficiently sophisticated these days as to narrow to postcodes. any aberration from this would be detected very rapidly by abnormal betting patterns, i.e. a preference of money bet on an outcome other than its ratio of probability would dictate.

if the above is not the case than the bookie is lazy and deserves to be taken to the cleaners!

[????]

Tasty I think it ould take too much time and money to sort that - I think they basically put a finger in the air and then, as you suggest, rapidly change odds if the money starts coming in on one side.

[Magpie]

I think the other issue is that theres not a big market for these kind of bets - bookies also align odds on the weight of money received for each outcome to protect themselve if, for example, they have to pay out for an England win. In a thin market they cannot protect themselves so readily against this.

[KemiAdegoke]

Hello everyone,

I've noticed this and other threads discussing local political candidates and odds at the next general election. I know most people on here and that I meet out on the doorstep think their vote will make no difference to the outcome and all the parties are the same.

This is certainly not the case for East Dulwich ward, which is in the Dulwich and West Norwood constituency. According to Electoral Calculus, we are not a safe seat and every vote will make a difference. Take a look

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_c_e.html#DulwichandWestNorwood

Another frequent problem is that due to the boundary changes, many people aren?t sure what constituency they fall into. You can find out which ward you live in by putting your postcode in http://www.writetothem.com. The only Southwark wards in the D&WN constituency are College, Village and East Dulwich

I really do feel that it?s important voters know more about their local candidates, from all parties, and not just the party leaders. They?re the ones that can make the most difference in our area (I live here too). Rather than use the eastdulwichforum for electioneering in support for any party, I'd like to meet as many people with doubts and reservations in person.

I?ve been holding a number of events around the constituency where people can ask all the tough questions about me, what I've been doing locally and what I would do differently if I were the MP. The event for East Dulwich is tonight (25 Feb) at the Constitutional Club. It?s advertised on the events page here http://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/forum/read.php?6,423135.

Everyone is welcome to attend but it will be most useful to anyone who is genuinely undecided about who to vote for at the next general election.

Thank you and I look forward to meeting many of you over the next few weeks.

Kemi Adegoke

Conservative Parliamentary Candidate

Dulwich & West Norwood

www.dwnconservatives.com

www.kemi.adegoke.com

[louisiana]

KemiAdegoke Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

>

> I really do feel that it?s important voters know

> more about their local candidates, from all

> parties, and not just the party leaders.

Then how about supporting/promoting Democracy Club?

http://www.democracyclub.org.uk/

conceived by the ever wonderful Tom Steinberg and Co.

Meeting in Kennington tonight (one of many):

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=339706801693

[Marmora Man]

The Conservative candidate for Camberwell & Peckham (includes Peckham Rye ward) will be on the Politics show, Sunday 28 Feb at 13.00

[shadsy]

-- moved topic --

[KemiAdegoke]

Hi Louisiana,

The Kennington meeting took place at the exact same time as the event I had been advertising on the forum, so couldn't make it. I'm very happy to attend any future ones, but I am not sure if politicians are welcome as we'll obviously be promoting ourselves!

I think democracyclub is a great idea. I've read through the project website, and will happily provide any examples of leaflets and literature that they want.