Alan Medic

Peston's understanding of what's happening this w/end Robert Peston 1 hr ? This is one of the more important notes I've written recently, because it contains what well-placed sources tell me are the main elements of the Prime Minister's Brexit plan - which will be put to her cabinet for approval on Friday. I would characterise the kernel of what she wants as the softest possible Brexit, subject to driving only the odd coach over her self-imposed red lines, as opposed to the full coach and horses. And I will start with my habitual apology: some of what follows is arcane, technical and - yes - a bit boring. But it matters. Let's start with the PM's putative third way on a customs arrangement with the EU, which has been billed by her Downing Street officials as an almalgam of the best bits of the two precursor plans, the New Customs Partnership (NCP) and Maximum Facilitation (Max Fac). Last night I described this supposed third way as largely the NCP rebranded - which prompted howls of outrage from one Downing Street official. But I stand by what I said. Because the new proposal of the PM and her officials, led on this by Olly Robbins, retains the NCP's most controversial element, namely that the UK would at its borders collect duties on imports at the rate of the European Union's common customs tariff. The UK would in that sense be the EU's tax collector. And although the UK would have the right to negotiate trade agreements with third countries where tariffs could be different from the EU's or zero, companies in the UK importing from those countries would have to claim back the difference from Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC), much in the way they currently claim or pay different VAT rates when trading with the EU. The reason why, from a bureaucratic if not economic viewpoint, the UK would in effect remain in the EU's customs union is that there is no other way of avoiding border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Or at least that is what the PM and her officials now believe. To be clear, this would be an asymmetric agreement with the EU: Theresa May may ask EU governments to collect customs duties on behalf of the UK from companies based in their respective countries, but she knows they will respond with a decisive no, nay, never. Which may seem unfair. But actually this would only be a problem if there were an imminent prospect of a future British government wanting to impose higher tariffs than EU ones. And certainly the political climate now - outside of Trumpian America - is for lower tariffs. Just to be clear, there will be some of Max Fac in this new synthesised customs plan: IT and camera technology employed to reduce the bureaucracy and frictions of cross-border trade. But the True Brexiters won't be wholly relaxed (ahem) by what they are likely to see as NCP by another name. And there's more, of course. Because frictionless trade and an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic cannot just be achieved by aligning customs collection rates. It also requires alignment of product standards, for goods and agricultural products. Or at least that is what the PM will insist on with her Cabinet colleagues. And that alignment would in effect replicate membership of the single market for goods and agri-foods. Which would see European standards and law continuing, ad infinitum, to hold sway over British manufacturing and food production - though the ultimate court of appeal in commercial disputes. would, in May's and Robbins's formulation, be an extra-territorial international court, like the European Free Trade Area's EFTA court. Given that the ECJ would still have a locus below this final adjudicating tribunal, I assume the True Brexiters such as Jacob Rees-Mogg will be unamused. But maybe they would take comfort that a British parliament could always withdraw from the trading arrangement, if there were concerns that the rest of the EU was discriminating against the UK. At this juncture you are saying, I am sure, "oi! what about services?" - given that the UK is largely a service economy (80% of our economic output, our GDP, is generated by service businesses). Well there is an aspiration to maximise access to the EU's giant market for services by aligning professional and quality standards, for example. But equally there is a pragmatic recognition that maximising such access would require minimising restrictions on EU citizens moving to the UK to live and work; there is a calculation by Robbins and his officials that, among the EU's so-called four freedoms, free movement of services and free movement of people are pragmatically connected. And since the PM has pledged to impose new controls on the free movement of people from the rest of the EU, she accepts that the EU will insist on some new restrictions on the sale of British services in its marketplace. But May and her ministers are hopeful there is a deal to be done here, a trade-off: preferential rights offered to EU citizens to live and work in the UK, compared to the rights available to citizens from the rest of the world, for improved market access in Europe for British service companies. We'll see. In the round, you may conclude - as I have - that Theresa May wants a future commercial arrangement with the EU that is not as deep and intimate as Norway's, but is not a million miles from Switzerland's. From which there follow two crucial if obvious questions. Will the EU - its chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the 27 government heads - bite or balk? If Barnier's word was gospel on this, the plan would be dead at birth, because it does put a wedge between the four freedoms: May wants complete freedom of movement for goods (and capital), but restrictions on people. May's bet is that his employers, the 27 prime ministers and presidents, will be less dogmatic. But what about her own cabinet and parliamentary party? If they are in the True Brexit camp, like Davis, Johnson, Fox, and Gove, won't they cry "infamy, infamy, etc", threaten resignation and launch a coup to oust the PM? Well, what the PM will say to them is that her deal, she believes, is the only one around that stands even the faintest chance of being agreed in Brussels (though, to repeat, you would be right to be sceptical of that). Which carries a momentous implication - namely that if they reject her vision of Brexit, the default option of exiting the EU without a deal would become the sole option. And although many True Brexiters would say "hip hip for that", if a no-deal Brexit were to become the only game in town, there would be a revolt of MPs and Lords against the executive, against the PM and her government. Parliament would - almost certainly - reject exiting the EU without a deal and could, probably would, vote for the UK to join the European Economic Area and remain in the EU's single market. That would, for most True Brexiters, turn the UK into what they call a "vassal state". So come Friday, Johnson, Davis, Fox and Gove face an agonising choice: agree to a Brexit plan from May which will stick in their craws like a rotting mackerel head; or reject it and take the risk that what follows is almost their worst nightmare, not a clean no-deal Brexit, but the detested "Brino", or Brexit in name only. Of course there is always a chance that if they shout and scream loudly enough, May will buckle - and will allow the cabinet to agree on obfuscation for the White Paper on her Brexit negotiating position, to be published 12 July, rather than a clear and unambiguous plan to be put to the EU, of the sort I've described. If that were to happen, her authority would be undermined, perhaps fatally. And the possibility of there being no deal with the EU, on divorce and future relationship, would become a serious, potentially catastrophic probability.

And you being a Gers fan? Sure pre-season training probably involves lots of marching. You must remember Gazza and his flute playing antics?

Bit iffy but there wasn't anyone around to impose the 'rules' so to speak. Until now at least.

You mean this? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-stx-m-a-fincantieri/italys-fincantieri-to-take-control-of-frances-stx-ending-shipyard-row-idUSKCN1C22NZ Which rule did France ignore? You didn't give any source, which is always a good thing to ask of a leaver. 1400

http://uk.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-election-2018-may-government-collapse-2017-11 This article is from last November. Nothing much has changed since then. From what has been leaked regarding next week's white paper,even the people who wrote it think it's a work of fiction.It appears this government will never be able to agree on a deal with the EU. Andrew Adonis ‏ Brexit White Paper has been described to me by Whitehall insider as ?the most ludicrous government publication since the Green Paper proposing the poll tax in 1987. No one who has written it believes it? There may well have to be another GE. Who would win? Labour could well shift their goalposts and support another vote on the EU and that would probably be enough to see them gain power. Even if they didn't shift their position but won an election simply based on how bad the Tories have been, they would want to negotiate with the EU on their terms, as pie in the sky as they might be. With little time available for this until March 2019, they may request and be granted an extension to A50. If that happens then anything can happen afterwards including another vote on leaving. Corbyn in my view just wants to be PM. His socialist views are attractive to many. However, he may not be able to afford to implement them if we leave the EU given the likely poor/dire economic consequences. So I wouldn't give up yet on hoping Brexit will not happen.

JoeLeg Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > flocker spotter Wrote: > > > > big pictures are better than thunbnails, > arguemnts > > about racism on either side are a diversion and > a > > convenient sideshow that takes the focus away > from > > the inherent bstructural failings of the > distorted > > mirage of democracy we have been spoon fed > since > > birth. > > > I?d just like to repeat that I fervently agree > with all of this. Genuine question. If this country has experienced a mirage of democracy for so long, what replaces it? And how?

It's a different game when you know what you are playing for Fox. People didn't and many still don't.

citylover Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I cannot wait for Brexit and if it isn't delivered > as it was meant to be, end of free movement, > reinstating British Law as the highest law in the > land etc us Leavers will fight on because it's > worth it for our democracy. MP's are not there to > decide what's good for us, as some Remainers like > to argue,they are there to represent us and the > sooner they do the better.All these arguments > about job losses etc were fully played out during > the referendum and Leavers considered, with all > things considered, Brexit is the only acceptable > way forward. There will be positives and negatives > as with everything in life, Remainers prefer to > play up the bad, which you can do, but all it does > is harm the national interest, it does not get you > a second vote. Why? Because then there will have > to be a third, a fourth, a fifth ad infinitum and > we are not Ireland, we do not vote until the > little people finally give the 'right' answer. Kindly f off with your patronising little people remark. You are not Ireland, but half the problem is you don't know who you are. The Empire has gone. You don't rule the world and fairly soon there won't be a United Kingdom.

I don't know how the Fox has managed to get so many correct outcomes without hitting the jackpot. Oh feck. Just read your extra time comment DR/RD. I assumed too much.

Nothing glorious about the 12th. Either of them... My mother was from Tullamore. She was offaly nice. I didn't know about Byerley Turk. You must have keen interest in horses or the BofB to know that I'd say.

Nash's RED lemonade. Never heard of it. Is it made by the Orange Order? Getting supplies in for the 12th PGC?

2100

Mick Mac Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > JohnL Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Ireland could now reach number 1 in the world > > rankings by beating the All Blacks by more than > 7 > > points in the autumn. > > OMG - i now have the wobbles. Ireland number one > in the world at just about anything, has never > happened. Ah jeez Mick, there's loads of things........ http://www.dailyedge.ie/ireland-best-in-the-world-1207486-Dec2013/

He's probably trying to be sacked.........

Alternatively...The Failure of Panama?

maxxi Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > And in the far flung future when civilizations had > risen and fallen and whole generations had > forgotten why, still the claims were made... > "Hundred!" they cried! God loves staying power > doc. Thanks maxxi. I am but a mere messenger of the god of hundred whose name in only mentioned in whispers and when talking about money, specifically sterling.

900

He won me 3 points so he can go free.......

I see ol' Euro's is up to his old tricks. What was it he called his method of predicting? A 'technique'? Gets the most wrong and still top of the table. It's either a brilliant technique or he's just feckin' lucky. Time will tell. If it's the latter it won't last.

Simone, you know you can do that at home.

My OH picked up a movie in a VHS cover sometime in the last year*, somewhere in the area. She only opened it the other day. Inside was a VHS with the above title handwritten on the side of it. I had a quick look and it's a kids party somewhere indoors with soft toys for younger kids to bounce on and climb up. It was difficult to make out what language was being spoken as there were lots of kids and adults. It may have been disposed of accidentally (it was left out with other stuff) and might mean something to the parents or indeed Ciler, who is probably in her early 20's now. Being an unusual name to me, I looked it up. It may be Turkish. Anyway EDF, do your best. We have a VHS/DVD combi which allows copying onto a disk if someone has a claim on it.Probably best to PM me but looking forward to theories or clues from the forumites. *not reliable timeframe imo

diable rouge Wrote: > It's quite incredible that a Prime Minister can > brazenly claim there is a dividend, when clearly > there isn't. > One theory why she said that is that it's to act > as a sweetener to the Brextremists ahead of big > concessions she'll have to make at the next EU > summit at the end of this month. Prepare for more > disgruntled Brexit voters... I'm not sure the Brextremists give a sh*t about the NHS. They probably want to privatise it. Another theory is that the Tories want to show that the NHS is safe in their hands. Could be they are preparing for a GE or even another referendum on Brexit.

Don't know why that ref didn't give England 2 pens yesterday, given the one he did award. England shouldn't have had to go through the fairly nerve racking 2nd half. Started brightly but went downhill.The conditions may have had something to do with that. Some of the shooting was abysmal. Sterling runs around a lot but not much end product. Rashford a better bet I think.

Tomorrow will be interesting in the HOC after yesterday's HOL vote. This was a pretty low tweet from Patel @pritipatel4pm 17h 17 hours ago More Dominic Grieve's mother was French and he was educated at the Lyc?e Fran?ais Charles de Gaulle school in South Kensington, a school wholly owned by the French Government. He's a Frenchmen, with a British passport. Don't let this Frenchman stop Brexit

You think he would go after so many years with Wales? I know he's a Kiwi and it's the pro era, but still......