robbin

Foil hats off...tin hats on...

I understand your point, Rendel, but I think that's rather missing the point of Bloomberg's article. There have been posts on here that have complained about substantial and inexorable increases in inflation in the UK. This latest news shows that to be a misstatement of the facts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/u-k-inflation-below-boe-target-for-first-time-since-2017?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google Again, sorry that this hardly supports the hysterical doomsday narrative.

Classic!

John, if you like latex gloves, you have to check this out! https://www.businessinsider.com/creepy-factory-where-rubber-gloves-are-made-2014-10?r=US&IR=T

JohnL Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > "They come from the EU and if you don?t have them, > you can?t search people." > > Oooh maybe not one of my favorite brexit > stockpiles - rubber gloves that is. > > https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/08/he > athrow-stockpiling-rubber-gloves-from-eu-for-post- > brexit-searches Damn, I hadn't realised latex gloves aren't manufactured anywhere else in the world! Oh, wait...

Ah, the Hillman Hunter - great memories! I think the UK motor industry is doing pretty well comparatively, but it will need to up it's game on autonomous and electric vehicle development, because that's the future (the near future). The Germans have lagged way behind on this, which is why they are looking at having a very hard time soon.

You know that, do you? You are well connected, Nemesis!

Seriously? Do you genuinely need that explaining? See my post from 7pm yesterday, if you do (paras 4-7).

I appreciate these figures don't fit the hysterical one-sided narrative.

In anticipation of a predictable suggestion that the Italy/EU figures are some sort of pro-Brexit conspiracy, this is from a Vice President of the European Commission (taken from CNBC): With its immense debt pile and potential budget blowout, Italy is a risk first and foremost to itself, Valdis Dombrovskis, a vice president at the European Commission told CNBC. "Fragility in Italy's economy needs to be addressed," Dombrovski told CNBC's Willem Marx in Brussels Wednesday. "Given the high level of Italy's public debt, and Italy has the highest debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio in the EU after Greece, it's important that Italy puts its debt-to-GDP ratio on a downwards trajectory. And this is something which we have (been) consistently emphasizing and we think that this is important," he said. Italy's debt pile of 2.3 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion) is "first and foremost (it's) a risk factor for Italy itself, but one that needs to be addressed," he added. Italy's 2019 spending plans, that have caused a furor in recent months with the Commission ? the EU's executive arm ? were one area of particular concern, he noted. Dombrovskis' comments come as the European Commission cut its forecast for Italy's growth in 2019 to 0.2 percent, from a previous prediction (made last November) of 1.2 percent. In 2020, it predicts Italy's economy will grow 0.8 percent. The Commission also lowered its prospects for the euro area as a whole. The 19-member bloc is set to grow 1.3 percent this year, from a previous forecast of 1.9 percent.

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Not sure we can call Larry Elliott an objective > voice on Brexit matters - he's hardcore lexiter Predictable denial - what is not objective about the economic data?! Has Larry Elliott made those figures up then as part of the pro-Brexit conspiracy? Do you deny the figures that are quoted? Do you disagree that Germany is following Italy into recession? (the latest figures come from Deutsche Bank and the German government)

malumbu Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Listen to the Radio 4 programme on now - I'll post > a link, on the impact on the car industry. There's > some usual misinterpretation, eg government policy > on the sector (not talking Brexit here). But > overall there is a strong enough message that this > facks the industry. A less alarmist stance here > but read between the lines: > https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/brexit/ > Interesting, thanks - missed Radio 4 though. By way of comparison, the UK automotive industry accounts for 4% of UK GDP. In Germany it accounts for an astonishing 14% of GDP - the largest part of which is exports to the UK.

A follow up on the point about the EU countries' economic problems (it's not the most informative article on the subject but if it's not the Guardian I refer to presumably it would be dismissed as more right wing crypto fascist fantasy): https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/08/its-not-brexit-britain-most-likely-to-suffer-recession-its-germany https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-05/deutsche-bank-says-german-economy-is-drifting-toward-recession Basically, the German economy is going into recession and its export business is tanking - factory orders down a whopping 7% in the last year and down 1.6% just in December 2018.

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > One of those groups will be wrong - and only one > of those groups will be able to say "ah well" if > they are wrong.If it's the other they will have > destroyed a country for generations and risked > peace (for not much reward if any) Your repetitive use of hysterical hyperbole suggests you have lost all perspective and reason. The real world is different, I think, to what you are used to.

The UK needs to have some bottle, make it clear the UK is leaving, whether with or without a deal and mean it. Merkel and others (obviously I don't include the eurocrats in Brussels in this) are already looking like they are worried and might be prepared to be more reasonable if a no deal exit is the only alternative. Closer to exit day (maybe even on or very close to it) they would probably start negotiating in earnest. It's how negotiations work, in the real world. The problem with all that is, May and her incompetent crew of civil servant 'negotiators' have already fundamentally messed up and prejudiced the UK's position by (i) prematurely triggering Art 50, (ii) agreeing to negotiate a WA without any attempt to even start negotiating a trade deal and (iii) (and this is the one that makes me really shudder) signing up to the WA containing a backstop that (a) means we would be completely at the mercy of the EU in terms of exiting it, but most importantly b) removes ALL negotiating motivation from the EU on a future trade deal. Given that the EU wants the UK to stay in the CU and given that so long as there is no trade deal that is precisely what would happen, far from being motivated to do a deal, the EU would positively be motivated not to do a deal and simply to keep the UK in the CU indefinitely (or insist on very onerous terms in a trade deal in return for being 'allowed' out of the CU). For anybody to think that a non-binding short political statement of wishes would have any bearing on whether or not a trade deal is done, when the alternative is that the EU would keep what it wants, is utterly bonkers. Theresa May must be mind-bogglingly stupid to think otherwise, or there must be some other agenda. She even had legal advice that this is the legal consequence of such an arrangement (but anybody reading the WA would have seen that was clear anyway). So, it's time to stop b@*$erring about. We are where we are and the EU will only take negotiations seriously if they truly believe that the UK means what is says. The problem is at the moment they still don't (although Merkel- who let's face it is the real power behind Brussels - appears to be shifting ground). That's almost certainly to do with pressure from her businesses who are starting to fear for their future. The latest from the German economy is not good news for them and their car industry above all others is very concerned, given that they export more cars to the UK than anywhere else in the world. Don't forget that the motor industry in Germany is not like ours - it is a massive player in their economy - they export almost twice as many cars as the second highest exporter - Japan and three times as much as the USA. You think they want tariffs on those exports? They are already suffering from the shift in the pound's value which makes their exports to us more expensive/reduces profit margin for them. The same goes for Ireland. They stand to lose massively. The UK is by far their largest export market, but in addition, their economy is tiny in comparison to the UK and can ill afford to take a hit. It was only 8 years ago that they had to be bailed out to the tune of ?75 billion or their financial system would have collapsed. They still owe about 30-35 billion of that debt, I think. Whatever the precise sum, Ireland still owes more debt per capita than any other country in the Eurozone (even more than Greece). Then there's the economic woes of various other EU countries - Italy (still on the verge of a financial meltdown and banking crisis), Spain (also with high debt and horrendous unemployment), Greece (enough said), France (employment well over double that in the UK). People often point out that as a collective those countries are stronger - well, to some extent that is true, but as with most things the argument cuts both ways - when considering how worried individual countries are, the argument is a red herring. For example, businesses exporting to the UK from say, Spain, are going to care only about their businesses - they won't be thinking that the pain is spread throughout the EU so that's fine. It will hurt them just the same as if they were a sole country not in a trading block. So, we are stuck with the mess created by May over the last 2 years. Yes, we probably need more time to be completely ready for a no deal exit, but could cope without more time if push comes to shove, by steps such as HMRC have taken by deciding to carry out no checks on most goods for 18 months or so. We could ask for a delay of 6 months or more, but I'm not sure whether that would help in the long run, because it would mean a longer period of uncertainty and posturing and could end up with us not being materially no further forward in preparations. It also send the EU a message that the UK is not serious about leaving (or at least that's what they would probably take away from it).

He/she said with not even a hint of irony!

Is he the guy with the bright pink hair? Is he not complaining (for his 15 minutes at least) about an overspend of just ?300,000? Much that I hate fraud, I can't get excited about that, or think that it made a jot of difference to the outcome. If anything the dodgy spending was Cameron spending millions of taxpayers money sending out his booklet to every household saying why people should vote to remain. That didn't seem to work either though. Wylie's complaints don't seem to have any traction as far as I can see.

The notion of organised 'opposition' to a decision taken in a democratic vote (with a huge voter turnout) does seem a bit odd, in a democracy. The time for opposition to leaving the EU was in 2016. The parties are fearful of thumbing their noses at the majority that voted to leave and I can see why.

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Ah look - someone has found google. No, Sephiroth of Final Fantasy VII ('real' name 'Nemesis') I just looked at some of your other posts on here and my eye was drawn to your reviews of Final Fantasy VII, Final Fantasy VIII, Final Fantasy IX, Final Fantasy X, Final Fantasy XI and Final Fantasy XII.

I've just realised I'm being insulted and talked down to by someone who spends their time playing role playing video games. That's a first! Maybe too much of those computer games does lead to aggression after all. I will be more understanding of you (and patient) in future, Sephiroth from Final Fantasy VII.

Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > "I might as well say in 10 years time Remainers on > the edf will be shaking uncleglen?s hand and > thanking him and fellow leavers for liberating > them and giving them and their children a > brilliant future." > > Sure Keano - I'm sure you can find vast majority [sic] > of experts to back up a strawman argument like > that. > > Robbin - reduced to picking up typos from a phone > posting. Oh dear. Obviously you are correct about > the spelling and the use of periods. But to what > end? > > Joe - I don't think I said you were insulting? I > certainly didn't mean to. As I said, I'm in broad > agreement with you. But your points on the Irish > border only underline Keano and Robbin's behaviour > - there is nothing you can say that won't be > dismissed by them and people like them. Government > impact reports, border experts, economists that > aren't Minford - none of them mean a damned thing. > > They (Robbin and Keano) are dangerous quacks, and > trying to find common ground with them is futile. > They have their heads down and will do and say > anything to see this through. Even if they did > vote remain. The notion that somehow, if only I > was nicer, reached out more, didn't poke fun at > them or typed my sentences more carefully would in > any way elicit a more genuine response is for the > birds. Mention Ireland before the referendum? Gets > glossed over. Mention anything else that's about > to happen and be catastrophic after March 2019? > Get dismissed as "not factual". > > But they are only 2 examples of why this country > is so banjaxed and is happy to take others down > with it. > > But when it all comes crashing down I can hear > Robbin's words of apology - and now helpful > spelling and syntax critique as well - to comfort > myself with.

Sephiroth, there's no 'w' in reckless. Also, do you not have a full stop on your keyboard? ETA - Sorry, my mistake - I've now spotted a few full stops hidden away - just rarely at the end of sentences. Must be all that hyperbole and pent up angst that's been distracting you.

I agree and that's a fair point Rendel. All I was doing was responding to a criticism levelled at me that I was just spouting some sort of made-up "half-baked" UKIP propaganda (the implication being that I am either stupid or gullible, or both). It actually was the UK's formal position that we supported Turkey's application and at times, it was enthusiastically supported - hence my reference to the Prime Minister's statements (and his last minute change of position to suggesting the UK didn't support Turkey's application to join - which I did not trust).

I listened to the country's Prime Minister and took account of the UK's formal public support for Turkey's application to join the EU, as well as the prevailing circumstances. I have never had any time whatsoever for UKIP, so you are wrong again. When Cameron did a rapid about turn just before the referendum, it was far, far too convenient a change and I took the view it was cynical and simply not true that he had a sudden genuine change of heart. I think a lot of what Cameron and Osborne said back then was dishonest or misleading and that has proved to be correct. A hell of a lot of lies and misleading statements were peddled by all sides. The whole thing was a disgrace. The 'negotiations' since Art 50 was triggered (which in my view was way too soon to set the clock ticking) have in my opinion been even worse - as has the hopeless response from opposition parties. As someone who is trained in and conducts negotiations regularly, I wince every time I think about how incompetently or disingenuously it has been handled thus far.