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robbin

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Everything posted by robbin

  1. robbin

    Brexit View

    Loz wrote: "I know dyed in the wool Tories who are aghast at the prospect of leaving the EU (the trade bloc that helps us - as Brexiters, without irony, remind us ? be the 6th largest economy in Europe)." Eh? Have I misread, or are you seriously suggesting the UK is the 6th largest economy in Europe?! If so, by what measure? You are way out. Spain is the 6th largest economy in Europe by GDP (the standard measure) which is just over HALF the size of the UK economy. Russia is 5th, Italy 4th, France 3rd.
  2. Me too (it's common to do so, I think). An ordinary bike with a few years' wear and tear isn't worth much. I wouldn't give away my 'best' road bike, but others are fair game.
  3. robbin

    Brexit View

    Finally TM has actually shown a modicum of tactical intelligence this afternoon by getting angry about the disrespect shown yesterday by Macron and others, but more importantly she appears (whether or not she will stick to it remains to be seen) to have rejected the notion that the UK should negotiate against itself. One of the basic rules of negotiation is that you should not get into such a position by following one 'reduced' offer by a further 'reduced' offer while the other side stays silent. That's the game the EU appears to be playing (that or its just not interested in doing a deal and is wasting time). We'll see which is which in due course, I guess. Unfortunately, TM will probably get cold feet and start backtracking. I notice she didn't suspend/walk away from talks, so that suggests some weakness. What I find particularly galling is the fact that the DUP now hold sway on the Irish issue, which means there's no chance of sticking customs checks between NI and the mainland, which is what the EU want (I wouldn't care if that happened).
  4. robbin

    Brexit View

    I think fs' comment was tongue in cheek?
  5. robbin

    Brexit View

    Jenny - Personally I don't think there should ever have been a referendum, but that's irrelevant now. Your question though illustrates the skewed 'debate' on this issue. Your question is loaded with the insertion of the word "damaging" - that's the only premise for the question that you appear prepared to countenance. Why not ask "But isn't it mad to be spending time, money and effort enacting a Brexit rather than focusing on our approach to AI and the changes it will bring?" The answer to that would likely be, 'it depends on how advantageous to the UK in the long term the Brexit would be'. But that's (apparently) not a question you would ask because of the degree of certainty in your own mind that eliminates any balanced or enquiring consideration of such an important issue. You may be right to think it will be damaging. But, you may not be. It's not been done before and it's highly complex with positives and negatives being possible on all sorts of unrelated, or even overlapping issues. I find it frustrating that for something that is complex on an epic scale, so many posters on this thread are so utterly certain they are right about predicting the future (often by quoting sound bites from foreign leaders on the other side of the negotiating table). With such a degree of certain knowledge of complex economic outcomes, it's a wonder some posters are not all already millionaires from their savvy market trades. Maybe you are and you have been posting from your yachts!
  6. robbin

    Brexit View

    flocker spotter Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > "...This is why the loss of > the NL as a portal is immense." Eh? Is this breaking news? Who is saying we are going to 'lose Rotterdam as a portal'? Has anyone told the Dutch? The mayor of Rotterdam will have a cardiac event!
  7. robbin

    Brexit View

    JohnL Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > We might still buy Dutch stuff but pay more (maybe > quite a bit more) for it. > > That depends on how prosperous we feel post > Brexit. Yes, we might. We might pay a few percent more for Dutch stuff and vice versa (on a 10% tariff a fair bit would moist likely be absorbed by the exporter). Ultimately (if there's a no deal scenario) in the longer term it's likely we would do a deal at some point to abolish or reduce tariffs, because that's generally considered to be in everyone's interests. In any event there would be some rebalancing of the economy needed of course, which would not necessarily be a bad thing. There are greater challenges to our economy than Brexit in terms of rebalancing. In the medium to long term the development of AI is highly likely to be one of them, which may cause huge structural adjustments as very large numbers of jobs become redundant.
  8. robbin

    Brexit View

    Jenny1 wrote "...But the important difference between the Netherlands and the UK is that after Brexit (any kind of Brexit) the Netherlands will be in a position to quickly re-adjust its business models within the EU. We in the UK won't..." I'm sorry - I can't let that statement go unexplored! What on earth does that even mean? I don't mean that rudely - I just can't work it out and it makes no logical sense to me - it comes across as a sound bite. How, exactly will the Netherlands be able to "quickly re-adjust it's business models in the EU"? How? It already sells as much as it can by way of exports to other EU countries, surely? It can't just suddenly turn around and replace lost exports (see my last post) and it's nonsense to postulate otherwise. If (and I stress 'if') on the other hand Brexit means new markets are opened up (which couldn't previously be accessed in the same way, owing to membership of the UE) then it may be easier to replace lost exports to the Netherlands than it would be for the Dutch to replace their lost exports to the UK by somehow selling more to the EU. I'm not predicting that will happen, but I do seriously question the apparently flawed logic of that statement. It's a danger of sound bite politics and reporting, I think, that people state positions as fact without any reasoning lying behind them.
  9. robbin

    Brexit View

    On top of that, don't forget the common sense economics of the balance of trade. A country can relatively easily replace imports from one country with another source (e.g. buy Japanese or US cars instead of German cars). It is far, far harder for any country to replace their exports. If suddenly you are not exporting to one particular country, you can't just replace those exports by selling to another (indeed, you would already be exporting those amounts to them if it was that easy). Reading this thread it all appears so black and white and negative (and more than a little hysterical) but that's hardly surprising if its all based on a skewed and selective set of data. I would rather Brexit was not happening and I'm pretty sick of hearing about it, but I do not think everything is all doom and gloom and there's certainly not clarity on a lot of things. We'll have to wait and see what a no deal scenario brings (if that's what happens) but I doubt the sky will fall in (unless we all collectively will it to do so).
  10. robbin

    Brexit View

    Jenny1 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > robbin Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > > I do know the Dutch are cr*pping themselves > about > > their aviation industry as well as other > aspects > > of their economy though. > > I doubt they're cr*pping themselves as much as UK > business. Who knows - I don't think they have the 24 hour hype and hysteria about Brexit in Holland, so maybe not, but the figures speak for themselves. In 2015 (the figures haven't changed much since) the UK exported ?17.3 billion to Holland and the Dutch exported way more to the UK - ?31 billion. So, an annual positive net balance (for the Dutch) of ?13.7 billion every year, which they must be worried will be at risk - that's a lot of jobs and effect on their economy. Even in the short term, (say 5 years) that's a net trade balance of ?86.5 billion that they would not want to lose. For a country with an economy (in GDP terms) less than one third the size of the UK, that is significant, it seems to me. If you think that's not something Holland and certain other major EU nations are bothered about, then I'd be interested in your explanation why those figures are not relevant to this other side of the argument. In addition, there's the uncertain so-called Rotterdam effect.
  11. robbin

    Brexit View

    Like the majority of French people I don't give a t*ss what that clown Macron has to say. He'd be well advised to pay a bit more attention to home. He has an eye wateringly low approval rating of 19% in France (the like of which is almost unprecedented) and large swathes of the electorate appear to think he has lied and broken his earlier fine sounding promises. His own MPs have been saying it feels like they are on the Titanic, they are that disillusioned with him. Waste of space almost makes TM look half decent!
  12. robbin

    Brexit View

    JohnL Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > I agree it's negotiation - but they just seem so > much better at it than us - this tweet from Peston > actually makes you feel sorry for her - the girl > being excluded from the in crowd at school. You > get the feeling it was all planned. Yes, the old boys of the almost exclusively male EU in-crowd. I don't feel sorry for TM - I think she's useless. However, she is at a massive structural disadvantage. The EU Commission and its negotiators do not have the same set up to cope with as the UK does. We have an opposition (sort of!) and commentators who are at pains to take points against the government (which is their job) and those points usually signal weaknesses in our negotiating position. In fact they are designed to whip up doubt and/or fear even if they are correct. Whereas the EU body is able to keep all internal stuff like that at arms length. I'm not suggesting that the opposition/opponents of Brexit shouldn't make their points, but the fact remains that structurally we have that in-built disadvantage that does not exist with normal negotiations. We are starting the game without a goalkeeper and missing a couple of midfielders (with Raheem Stirling as our main striker). Jennie - I only have knowledge of what I have read. Like the Dutch PM I don't have an inside line to all the relevant government departments. I do know the Dutch are cr*pping themselves about their aviation industry as well as other aspects of their economy though.
  13. robbin

    Brexit View

    Ha ha - great pic. At least she's not dancing!
  14. robbin

    Brexit View

    Ha ha! All bog standard negotiation posturing. Nobody who knows about negotiating would be surprised by any of what has been emanating from the EU for the last 12 months in terms of posturing. It's only the UK that seems intent on signalling what we consider to be weaknesses in our negotiating position. Anyone who places much weight on posturing from the other side during a negotiation is displaying considerable naivety. As if the Dutch PM knows what preparations have/are taking place in the UK. Moreover, he of all people knows that the Netherlands has failed to prepare for a no deal scenario in extremely important respects and must now be worried. The letter leaked yesterday from within the EU (about how the Netherlands and other countries cannot be ready and will suffer serious consequences) made that very clear indeed in respect of aviation!
  15. Bob Buzzard Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ...when I nearly tripped > over one of the yellow bikes slung up against a > low garden wall in Landcroft Road - it was only by > walking around it that I managed to avert tripping > over and injuring myself... Phew! Well done Bob. Clever manoeuvre that - walking around the big yellow thing in order to avoid tripping over it.
  16. Alice, please remind me of where/when anybody on this thread said cities were crime free?
  17. But back to the subject of how to make the young victim of a robbery feel more secure... It is difficult - I suppose to talk it through (how he feels about it all, so you can understand his concerns and just generally to let him talk - which might be upsetting, but might also help in the long run). At the same time try not to dwell on it excessively, but to ensure he understands that although these things can happen, they do not happen all the time and there are some scumbags out there, but the vast majority of people are decent and kind. Try to get him to be aware of his surroundings and spot warning signs and react appropriately if there looks like a risk of robbery (like crossing the street, knocking on a door, going into a shop or pub/restaurant, getting near more people, etc) but try not to make too big a deal of it or feed any sense of paranoia. Easier said than done, because he will probably feel nervous and paranoid sometimes - that's human nature after something like this. I know from experience the paranoia will return sometimes (at first frequently), but will pass/reduce over time as the memory of the event fades over the years. I know this sounds a bit naff (and hopefully not too weird), but in an odd way it helped me ease my anger to tell myself that the perpetrators were the losers living a sh*** and sad life of violence, hooked on drugs (probably) and with no joy in their lives and so I was having the last laugh. I hope that confession doesn't make me sound too unpleasant, but after this sort of thing you look for reasons, you get angry, resentful etc. and I suppose everyone deals with things in their own way. Anyway, I do hope your son forgets about this and moves on as soon as possible. I'm sure he will. All the best. Edited to add: Also, reinforce that he did the right thing - he handed over stuff - but it's only stuff and that's not worth getting hurt for. Even the best trained self defence experts would tell you that in a 4 to 1 situation their only real options are (1) to run away if that's possible or (2) to hand over your stuff. Fending off or counter attacking 8 hands with 2 is just not really possible without risking getting hurt - that only happens in films, not real life.
  18. I should add that personally I blame the incumbent Prime Minister more than Mr Khan for all this - she was IMHO even more hopeless as a Home Secretary than as PM and while in that earlier position hardly shone when it came to reducing violent crime.
  19. I agree RH with your (A) - my comment was somewhat tongue in cheek (although I confess I do not like the incumbent Mayor). It was The Donald that was first (or one of the first) to mischaracterise his quote on good old Twitter. I do think he has failed properly to engage with what is plainly an increasing violent crime rate in London. The prevalence of acid attacks, mopeds and/or bikes being used as a launching pad for street robbery and the horrendous levels of gang murders/stabbings, seem to me not to have drawn a firm enough or coordinated response from him. I appreciate, of course, that he is not the only person with responsibility for tackling crime and quality of life in the capital, but it is clearly within his remit and he does have responsibility for it. I bet you a pound to a penny that if the violent crime rate was falling, he would be putting out press releases taking at least some of the credit! Out of interest, where did you get that stop and search quote from? If you are referring to his interview in The Evening Standard in 2015 (which I accept you might not be), you appear to have misquoted what appears there (the words you put in bold type don't appear in that sentence). Clearly it was his opinion that stop and search was being overused, but the fact remains that he wanted to cut stop and search. Given that there is no absolute definition of 'overuse' (it is an opinion, not a fact) in any event I'm not sure it is any defence of his position to say he was just wanting to cut down on it's overuse, because whether it is overused or not is just his opinion. He has more recently announced (in 2018) that he wants stop and search to be substantially increased (in response to the huge number of gang murders by stabbings) but that change belies the folly in his original approach. He was originally saying it should be curtailed as it was racially discriminatory. As I understand it, he now says it should be 'geographically targeted'. Well, I'm afraid I can't see how that approach is not also going to discriminate in the same way, given the profile of most of the geographic areas in question.
  20. robbin

    Brexit View

    Jenny1 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > robbin Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Indeed. It could certainly apply to this > > particular thread! It has to be by far the most > > self-serving one on here. > > So what exactly do you find 'self-serving' about > it? Pretty much the whole content (which is generally only a few posters). I think JoeLeg summed it up perfectly when he said: "To be fair most *online* ?debate? about Brexit is pretty self-serving. It tends to exist in one echo chamber or another, consisting mostly of people reinforcing each other?s views about whatever stance they hold and arguing vociferously with interlopers who go against their flow. We?re just of guilty of that here, and I include myself in that."
  21. That's a disingenuous wind-up remark, Alice - please remind me of where/when anybody on this thread said cities were crime free?
  22. robbin

    Brexit View

    Indeed. It could certainly apply to this particular thread! It has to be by far the most self-serving one on here.
  23. I imagine Mr Khan probably takes the view that it's just part and parcel of living in a big city.
  24. robbin

    Brexit View

    I don't - but I read newspapers (remember them?) and nonsense that has appeared from all sorts of quarters on Twitter is often reported.
  25. robbin

    Brexit View

    Wait until Trump figures out he can do that!
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