Scotland - Independence Referundum

[Louisa]

Salmond will lose this referendum by probably a slim 2-4% margin, but that's too close to call to silence the nationalist sentiment for another referendum in a decade or less even. Westminster, particularly the Labour Party, should have done a lot more for the "No" campaign than they did from the start. It's all a little but too little too late.

Louisa.

[Otta]

I've been wondering whether a slim YES victory of under 5% margin will really be enough to take them away.

LM I think the tories changed her mind. She's seemingly fallen for the argument that Westminster and the tories especially, couldn't care less about what's good for Scottish folk.

I do look forward to the Prime Ministers Questions where Cameron says "we've done this and we've done that", and the leader of the opposition stands up and says "you've lost half the bloody country!".

[Louisa]

Otta but Labour are their own worst enemies. They should have been more than on their guard about the SNP threat as soon as Salmond formed a majority government in the Scottish parliament. The man is more than capable of overcoming obstacles to get what he wants, and he seems to have an endless number of rabbits in his hat. Labour took for granted their natural vote and assumed a healthy 15/20% lead would never be overcome. They are the natural party of Scotland, they were caught napping and now Salmond has successfully eaten away at a seemingly insurmountable "No" camp lead. Labour and the Tories need to hope for their own survival that they can somehow win this with a healthy majority. I personally think it's too late now, and any victory with under a 5% lead will allow the nationalists a foot in the door further down the line. It will be a hollow unionist victory, with a buoyed nationalist movement surging forward with even more support. Well done Westminster.

Louisa.

[LondonMix]

God, there really is no coming back from that. However, surely that's more an argument for voting Labour than succession. It shows how flimsy the concept of being British is in the hearts and minds of the population.

My English partner never calls himself British. To him the term doesn't mean very much though he doesn't want to see the country splinter apart.

Its weird because even though parts of the US are very different from one another culturally and otherwise, there is still a sense of being American even if you hate half the country. Its ineffable really but its strong

[Otta]

Lou I'm not reallyr blaming all this on the tories, I just love the thought of that line being used on Cameron. You lost us half of the country, worst PM ever!!!

Childish I know, but it makes me laugh.

[KirstyH]

Wonder if Cameron's effort to get business 'leaders' to save the union is back-firing. John Lewis customer services told me today, when I rang up, that they'd had 'alot of calls' today contra its Group Chair - with massively politicised timing - coming out about higher costs that 'could' face Scottish consumers if Y succeeded. Tedious.

The interesting thing is whether its the Tories/England (I'm sure it will be for some)or actually frustration and weariness about politics as usual and a desire for something different - even taking a massive risk on that - that will push some of the undecideds towards Y. So its not just the challenge of whether Cameron et al heading to Scotland backfires because they're English/posh etc, but the very fact that they are heading there, on panic button, at the last minute to offer some 'new' thing, that could backfire?

[Louisa]

KirstyH who knows if it will backfire. I think you'll find the "No" campaign is overwhelmingly endorsed and run by big beast Labour politicians now, so it's not just about posh tories from south of the border, it's more about complacency and being caught off guard. They're now working their t/@s off praying for some last minute surge towards "No". It might happen but seems unlikely.

Louisa.

[maxxi]

Whichever way it goes now, it's going to be too close for the rift that the passions have aroused to heal easily. After all it's not the sort of vote that can be reversed - like a general election - in a few years time. Close results also leave too many disgruntled losers; I hope for a 'No' but on reflection a close 'Yes' may be the best thing to end this arse-ache once and for all.

A close 'No' will inevitably lead to calls for another vote every few years and demands for bribes to keep the Scots sweet - not to mention a heightened antagonism towards the English (accusations of vote rigging or fixing the result, the feeling that the English have screwed the Scots over again etc.) which may not have been there if it was a decisive 'No'.

This may, of course, be merely a symptom of secession fatigue on my part.

[Otta]

LondonMix Wrote:

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> What changed her mind?

There was quite a chat on her Facebook page last night. This was what her mother in law had to say.

"Can I just say, the people ov scotland will decide on the future ov their children n their grandchildren n their children, we mite not have it easy for a good 10 to 20 years, but u have 2 look 2 the future, 4 our future generations, I'm certainly doing it 4 mine, it totally has nothing 2 do with disliking English people, we have relatives n friends south ov the border, we r not disowning you, far from it, the yes voters think we r doing what's best 4 us as a nation xx"

[Otta]

I got more of a feel for the whole thing by joining in with them ladt night than I have through any news or debate I've seen / heard / read down here.

[LondonMix]

What I don't get about that though is that they have a lot of devolved powers already. If its not about national identity and more about self-determiniation what exactly do they feel they will be able to better control post split?

I get the sentiment but when interviewed it doesn?t appear the average Scot (or English person mind you) understands who much self-rule the Scots have already obtained within the union.

[Otta]

I made that point, but they don't trust Westminster to follow through on promises of further powers should they stay.

[steveo]

Can we have the Royal Yacht Britannia back as well as the subs?

[LondonMix]

That's just weird Otta as Westminster has already given then devolution historically. Why wouldn't they follow through with additional devolution promises? It sounds very emotional. People might say its about being able to self-rule but the reality is that it seems much more about identity than anything else, which is fine. I'm not sure the Scots really understand what gains they are actually getting by leaving, which would be a shame if people are voting to achieve something they basically already have.

[TE44]

Yeah like thatcher did when she promised it in 79 if there was a no vote in referendum.

[LondonMix]

Can you expand TE44. Did Thatcher promise something to Scottland and not follow through? That would be interesting the learn about-- I'm American so bear with me!

[TE44]

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2014-09-11/plaid-leader-urges-scots/

Scroll past first bit London mix.

[TE44]

http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-politics/4322-moore-echoes-douglas-homes-infamous-1979-promise-of-qsomething-betterq

A bit more detail.

[Otta]

LondonMix Wrote:

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> That's just weird Otta as Westminster has already

> given then devolution historically. Why wouldn't

> they follow through with additional devolution

> promises? It sounds very emotional. People might

> say its about being able to self-rule but the

> reality is that it seems much more about identity

> than anything else, which is fine. I'm not sure

> the Scots really understand what gains they are

> actually getting by leaving, which would be a

> shame if people are voting to achieve something

> they basically already have.

The thread she started was asking what people down here were thinking / saying, because up there it has been wall to wall for weeks, I don't think we quite appreciate the coverage up there.

I think people up there are largely happy with the way SNP have managed their budget. The yes campaign have succeeded in convincing everyone that the only way to do further good is by voting yes. They've made a bif thing about the lack of interest from Westminster, and convinced everyone that the recent promises are just empty promises from a desperate no campaign.

Basically the feeling doesn't seem to be anti English, but very much anti westminster politicians.

That's the impression I got anyway.

[maxxi]

Otta Wrote:

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> Basically the feeling doesn't seem to be anti

> English, but very much anti westminster

> politicians.

>

Which, I imagine, would be pretty much the reaction if you asked people in many English regions (outside the SE).

A disaffection with government will not disappear by moving it to Edinburgh; the same broken promises and lies will prevail (it's in the nature of the beast) or are they hoping for a one-party (SNP) state?

Talking 'state' - given that HMQ may well be busy with UK state business when Scotland needs a head of state on hand to entertain a foreign head of state - would they appoint a Governor General?

[Otta]

maxxi Wrote:

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> Which, I imagine, would be pretty much the

> reaction if you asked people in many English

> regions (outside the SE).

Yep, I made that point too. The classic belief that the streets of London are paved with gold, which they may well be, but a lot of the people living on these streets would be much better off if they were elsewhere.

[Huguenot]

Ah! At last! I get the image to work - hard work off an iPad!

I have pondered at will, especially after my spat with SJ, who I love and respect.

This is supposed to be three dimensional.

It's not about who you are, and how you consider yourself, but about what components have greatest influence when you consider the Scotland thing.

What three factors influence where most votes lie, and what three factors drive you up the wall?

[maxxi]

This is according to the restrictive x, y, z axis.

But, I'm an emotional indeterminist (e.i.) with existential irrational optimism (e.i.e.i.o.)

(Edited after the 5th Huge edit but before the 6th)

[Huguenot]

Haha Maxxi.

I'm being pretty brutal with this analysis, it's clearly reductionist.

[Huguenot]

My view is that the SNP have been very adept in migrating 'gut feel' emotional, historical and a sense of 'separate' identity issues into a false sense of rational, futuristic and deterministic ideals.

It implies that Scotland would be better off alone.

This would be the tragedy.