Has the ED housing market reached the bottom yet ( II )

[????]

buy in Septemberish next year

[????]

....if you've still got a job

[ibilly99]

Invent a time machine (or buy one on Ebay maybe ) buy in 1995 and sell in May 2007 - sorted !

[karter]

or buy in Septemberish next year and sell in 2015.

[Keef]

....if you've still got a job

Public Sector!

[lard]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> buy in Septemberish next year

A 2 year crash would be ultra quick, these things usually take a bit longer than that. Most now talk of another 20% off next year too so September may be way too soon to see the bottom. (Can you believe people are actually talking of 20% off - unthinkable a very short time ago)

Japan's house price slump lasted 15 years for example.

Although the speed of this crash has been pretty quick so far, so who knows. -2.6% MOM released yesterday. That's huge. Expect worse the next few months as the "good" months get knocked off the beginning of the range they use to analyse it.

Now rumours of calls for printing money...certain failure that. Anything they are doing now is only deferring (and therefore increasing) the problem.

..and yet most houses I monitor for sale in ED haven't decreased their price at all. Even if they have been on the market over 3 months.

[indiepanda]

People are rarely willing to accept their house really isn't worth what they thought it was when prices are going down, takes a while before reality kicks in and they are willing to cut the price... course, they are perfectly willing to believe their house can rise in value at an astronomic rate without the economic reality justifying such rapid increases....

I don't think I will be considering putting my toe back in the market until 2010, possibly later.

[dulwichmum]

MrBen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

"why would someone want to choose between Wales and

a villa with a pool in Portgual?"

Oh Mr Ben darling! You have given me the best plan ever...

I am off to have a word with my Monster-in-Law, what a start to the new year. Has anyone every told you? You really are incredibly bright.

[Caron]

I keep having a look at Rightmove and the house prices seem to be pretty similar to what they were last summer, strangely. However, they're not selling, as far as I can see. I think people are simply not getting mortgages at the moment. I bought somewhere two years ago with a 15% deposit and there were over 800 mortgages on offer. When I remortgaged a couple of months ago, a) the equity had vanished so I no longer had a 15% "deposit" and b) even when I put in more cash to reinstate a "deposit" there were only two, yes two mortgages available to me.

[????]

You'll be well in negative equity by the end of next year...sorry

[AcedOut]

Ermm Caron, which planet have you been on for the past 6 months!?

[Mick Mac]

Caron Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I keep having a look at Rightmove and the house

> prices seem to be pretty similar to what they were

> last summer, strangely. However, they're not

> selling, as far as I can see. I think people are

> simply not getting mortgages at the moment. I

> bought somewhere two years ago with a 15% deposit

> and there were over 800 mortgages on offer. When

> I remortgaged a couple of months ago, a) the

> equity had vanished so I no longer had a 15%

> "deposit" and b) even when I put in more cash to

> reinstate a "deposit" there were only two, yes two

> mortgages available to me.

Yes its tough Caron - you did not buy at the worst time, early 2007 might have been worse, but its very unfortunate for those in your position.

What I don't understand is why so many people took out mortgages with 2 year fixes etc expecting to be able to switch in two years time to something similar when there was no guarantee that something similar would be available. If people had taken out more convential mortgages which have the same terms for the full mortgage term the remortgaging after 2 years would not have been necessary. 2 years ago good offers were available for full term mortgages linked to the base rate but people did not seem to be able to see past the more "attractive" initial incentive rate mortgages.

People have known for some years that standard variable rates were to be avoided as they are at the manipulation of the banks but most of the better offers switch to SVR after the "incentive" term.

We can now see that the best deals were those linked to the base rate for the full term of the mortgage - if you remortgage again pick the best mortgage linked to the base rate, sometimes these have a substantial up front fee but it can be worth it as if you get into a cycle of remortgaging every 2 years you will pay much more in fees over time and the uncertainty of what you will be paying in the long run will always be there together with the stress of having to remortgage from time to time.

[ibilly99]

They are called exploding Option ARM's (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) as they 'explode' the rate after the initial teaser period is over. They are what ultimately blew up the sub-prime market in the US and brought the house of cards down on the world. God how I hate the buggers whose greed infected a generation.

[SteveT]

Has the ED housing market reached the bottom yet ( II )

I do not know why this thread is still alive.

There aint no change in this market for the next 4 years, it will be going down for two years, languishing for the following two years and around the end of that time, maybe, it will start to improve slightly.

Can't we let this thread die now, like the property market?

[macroban]

Before it dies...

Pre-1939 you could buy a 3/4 bedroom semi in East Dulwich for roughly twice the annual salary of a junior office manager. I don't know if there are analogous jobs these days. In those days it would have been one running an office of ten supervisors and 100 clerks. At present prices I guess that would be equivalent to an annual salary of ?35k-?50k.

The assumption that average house prices will bottom out at an historial average of 3.5 times salary is spurious.

[ChavWivaLawDegree]

I'm just glad I've got a council house - Never did buy into that mortgage yourself to the gills crap to get on the ladder. Bloody glad about that now.

[Keef]

I just wish we lived in a country where there was enough council housing available for everyone to have one, or private rentals at lower prices.

[ChavWivaLawDegree]

You did, pre-Thatcher!

[Keef]

So I didn't due to not being born yet ;-) Still weren't exactly enough for everyone mind.

[ChavWivaLawDegree]

Haha, no way you were born after 1979, where you?

When I came to London in '85, there were huge numbers of empty council places and I was part of a huge squatter community, many of whom were given tenancies in 'hard to let' areas such as the Rockingham Estate.

Is there even such a thing as a 'hard to let area' nowadays?

I doubt it.

[Keef]

1978 actually, but near enough.

[ChavWivaLawDegree]

I feel old!!

[ibilly99]

My 3 bed victorian terrace

1955 ?500

1987 ?82000

2007 Peak (nearby ?600,000)

Now ?495,000 ????

[Huguenot]

Good heavens Chav, one moment you're all for bringing down the administration, and the next you're asking them to take control of your home!

Council housing is stigmatised precisely because the government is not an efficient landlord.

Property rights are a critical part of modern society, allowing individuals to invest amid "the exclusive authority to determine how a resource is used".

In places like China where that rights is withheld, it's the single largest factor in social discontent.

[ChavWivaLawDegree]

My landlord is pretty good actually - but then I'm a bitch if they don't meet their statutory obligations!

Social housing is stigmatised because it's been changed from 'council housing for all' to 'council housing if you are a broke/homeless/gay/single parent on crack'. Not so stigmatised when they sell it off tho, hmmn funny that.

I'd love to own my own home, but I want about 20 acres with it so until I can buy the home I want in cash, I'm happy to pay ?100 per week for a 3 bed hse with front and back gardens and a garage, thanks.

If my proprietory rights in my house ever come under threat - i.e. about to be evicted or sold to developers etc, then I'd use the law to fight to keep it or buy it for whatever pitance they would try to sell it to the developers for. I have no interest in buying at market value or becoming one of the hordes of enslaved mortgagees as I have a secure tenancy and can pass this to one of my kids when I don't want it anymore. Not having title deeds in my name does not mean I do not have proprietory rights over my council house. I still have the right to buy in any case.

Lets see how many of the population with their newly aquired property rights are as secure in their homes as I am when the banks start recalling their loans early. You do not own your property until you have paid off the mortgage, so I would rather be in a council house than 'own' a house in negative equity or have a mortgage that can be recalled at any time.