431 property on sale in SE22 vs 188 in January

[jj2]

Look at here, pretty impressive trend:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=se22

Inflow of new properties seems pretty stable, but old properties not selling.

Someone posted a similar graph a few months ago, but it has now gone much further since then.

Hope this could lead to a panic selling at some point?

[Blackcurrant]

Similar story across London, but it's most extreme in the centre. There was a spectacular trough in supply around november-december last year followed by the inevitable stream of newspaper articles saying London has a desperate shortage of housing and, shortly afterwards, the utter insanity of spring, when almost every property went to sealed bids and sold over asking price. Fast forward six months and we have a glut of properties trying to sell above market value.

It's not the first London property bubble and it won't be the last. People never learn. Nothing makes people more desperate to buy houses more than the sight of everyone else scrabbling to get a foot on the ladder.

[Robert Poste's Child]

Someone I know was told by an estate agent in North London that "the froth is off the cappuccino".

[Blackcurrant]

Flat white?

I've heard quite a few people say the market is levelling out/stabilising/settling etc etc. Same crap they were saying throughout 2008. Those supply graphs don't show any sign of levelling out though, and they're the best barometer of market conditions I know of.

I don't think prices are going to stop falling until the election at the earliest - central London will stay paralysed until then. And it's currently looking like the election will be a mess with no clear winner, followed by shambolic attempts to form coalitions. One silver lining is that rate rises have been postponed.

[Mustard]

jj2 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Look at here, pretty impressive trend:

> http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area

> /marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?sea

> rchLocation=se22

>

> Inflow of new properties seems pretty stable, but

> old properties not selling.

>

> Someone posted a similar graph a few months ago,

> but it has now gone much further since then.

>

> Hope this could lead to a panic selling at some

> point?

You want it to lead to panic selling so you can snap up some kind of bargain?

[KidKruger]

I'm sure no-one else will want to snap-up a bargain, so you'll have the pick of them all.

[????]

Not a signifincant incraese in 1 bedrooms or 4+ bedrooms just 2 and 3 if you look at the stats, so mainly flats or smaller houses.

Any significant fall in prices will soon be gobbled up by the latent demand that there is among the numerous 'now's our chance' people - short of a significant economic collapse, I just don't see falling prices as more than a blip - shit, 2008 only put a short lived dent in them in London

F***k me it feels like an 80s dinner part on these threads

[NewDad]

Why would there be panic selling?

Low interest rates, lower unemployment, a lack of new housing supply, more people wanting to live in London - where is the trigger for a decline in property prices exactly?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11209327/Heres-the-proof-the-rest-of-the-UK-needs-to-be-more-like-London.html

Can you show me a property that has sold for less than its previous sale price? If not, how can prices be falling?

If people dont sell, they will stay put. Simple.

Slower growth and lower asking prices doesnt equate to negative growth.

[Jeremy]

Cooling of the housing market is, on balance, a good thing overall. It needn't spell disaster.

[Cyclemonkey]

I think at the moment things are cooling off and settling back to normal prices for the area rather than falling. We started looking for a place in January this year and quickly gave up as it was madness - queues out the door, places under off the moment they went on Rightmove, people offering tens of thousands over the asking price.

Fast forward to October and we started looking again in the same area with the same budget. Things have changed - plenty of reductions, properties hanging around, buyers actually chasing us. I would say it is a combination of lack of buyers - MMR rules kickigng in/people worried about rising interest rates, properties stillvalued as it is was earlier this year, a glut of properties comming on to the marlet as people saw an opportunity to cash in on rising house prices.

[Blackcurrant]

KidKruger Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I'm sure no-one else will want to snap-up a

> bargain, so you'll have the pick of them all.

Yes the bargain hunters will emerge for sure, but they won't push prices back up until supply starts to go back down.

[Blackcurrant]

NewDad Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> If people dont sell, they will stay put. Simple.

>

> Slower growth and lower asking prices doesnt

> equate to negative growth.

Any estate agent can tell you prices have fallen at least 10% since spring. That's negative growth.

[Cyclemonkey]

It is my experience that prices have fallen as well - we got an offer accepted that was ?14,000 below the asking price that had already been reduced. However i don't think prices have fallen as such more that prices were artifically inflated and agwnts were encouraging vendors to put things on at unachievable prices. Buyers have now experienced a collective reality check and are not desperately offering over the odds for ordinary flats and houses in ordinary London suburbs.

[????]

Blackcurrant Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> NewDad Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > If people dont sell, they will stay put.

> Simple.

> >

> > Slower growth and lower asking prices doesnt

> > equate to negative growth.

>

> Any estate agent can tell you prices have fallen

> at least 10% since spring. That's negative growth.

No that's the 'froth' from the stupid prices in the 'boomlet' at the beginning of the year, if you think prices or on any sort of long or even medium term downward trend then I think you're barking!

[Blackcurrant]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Blackcurrant Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > NewDad Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > If people dont sell, they will stay put.

> > Simple.

> > >

> > > Slower growth and lower asking prices doesnt

> > > equate to negative growth.

> >

> > Any estate agent can tell you prices have

> fallen

> > at least 10% since spring. That's negative

> growth.

>

>

> No that's the 'froth' from the stupid prices in

> the 'boomlet' at the beginning of the year, if you

> think prices or on any sort of long or even medium

> term downward trend then I think you're barking!

Look at the supply figures. There are twice as many properties for sale as last year. In parts of central London there are four or even fives times as many properties for sale. Markets respond to changes in supply and demand. Call it froth if you like, but it's hard to argue with numbers.

As I've said before, London's structural shortage is already priced in. A shortage makes goods expensive but doesn't sustain continual upward movement. There's a shortage of gold but it hasn't stopped the gold price falling.

I'm not making any long term predictions as nobody can, in either direction. But it's clear that prices have fallen and will remain weak until after the election.

[????]

Rubbish - Anyone can make a prediction that's all it it is - I'll bet you anything you want that prices will be higher in nominal terms in 5 years time say, i'd confidentally predict that. You've just got a short term frame in mind

[Administrator]

Is there a way I can keep this on SE22 topic rather than it becoming just another house prices thread https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=site%3Awww.eastdulwichforum.co.uk+house+prices ? I guess that's a rhetorical question but I may Lounge it at some point.

[Blackcurrant]

Definitely lounge-worthy I think as it's really about London rather than SE22.

[pinecone]

there is nothing new coming on in SE22 at the moment.

[Blackcurrant]

That's because it's November and the dark evenings aren't great for selling houses. Supply usually falls in winter.

[johnki]

I'm a buyer, and I've seen valuations still that are bleeding ridiculous, it's been interesting seeing June till now where properties clearly above there value being marketed for silly sums. Don't worry if you are a seller, you still can, at a reasonable price

[Cyclemonkey]

John - try putting in an offer below the asking price - we routinely knocked 10% off the asking price when putting in an offer. Some vendors were of course outraged and rejected us out right but you know what - some of thoese are still hanging round on RightMove a good few months since they first went on to the market.

[MrBen]

Cyclemonkey - and what happened? did you secure a property at 10% off the price it was marketed at? Or are you still looking?

[Cyclemonkey]

We did indeed!

[Blackcurrant]

Yes buyers should probably be looking to offer 10-15% under for properties needing work and maybe 5% under for those in pristine condition. Back in 2009 I put in an offer on a 3 bed house in SE22 below 80% of asking price that was accepted but that was a very different market at the height of the financial crisis and sellers were desperate.

Kirstie and Phil very rarely venture further than 3% below asking price but they have their own commissions to consider and earn nothing if they fail to close the deal. I think a lot of buyers mistakenly follow their lead.