Property prices cooling in ED?

[Jeremy]

Otta Wrote:

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> Indeed. But then when plans are submitted to

> build, everyone suddenly gets all NIMBY and starts

> objecting.

Yes and no. I think the M&S flats are a drop in the ocean and the complaints are rather unjustified (and the police station over the road was a four storey building FFS!)

But you can only "build, build and build" if you have the infrastructure (particularly public transport) to cope with the increased population.

[Penguin68]

But you can only "build, build and build" if you have the infrastructure (particularly public transport) to cope with the increased population.

Maybe Southwark could be encouraged to implement a planning rule which would stop any extension of residential property 'footprint' unless and until effective public transport is delivered in locales where it is absent - which might include longer trains/ more frequency in the ED area if the tube isn't to arrive. I am sure with 10 minute trains into town from the ED stations throughout the day/ evening and 5 minutes intervals at rush hours the additional pressures that more housing locally would put on parking etc. would be alleviated. Of course, how you'd pay for these (or manage them into and out of the stations) is entirely another matter.

[Loz]

UK history suggest you need to get the population problem first, then they'll think about the infrastructure. Which, when you think about it, isn't entirely stupid.

[Nigello]

Penguin68

I wrote to our MP and asked precisely that. I got a reply saying it would be looked at so when I get the full response, I will let people know.

I pointed out that with more people living on bus routes that feed SE22 (the new developmentsin and around Camberwelll will add hundreds of new residents) then overcrowding would get worse.

[LondonMix]

New developments come with an infrastructure levy. That levy is supposed to be used to improve infrastructure to support new development.

[HelBel65]

I've heard of that happening a lot and always find it odd - if I saw something which I thought was overpriced, I would just make a lower offer. Do people generally not tend to do that?

Calsug Wrote:

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> Also to add to my comment above to make sure I

> don't sound high and mighty, I fell for the high

> valuation trick from an estate agent who I won't

> name, ultimately I wasted 7 months, had the hassle

> of tidying the house every weekend and trying to

> keep out of my own flat for that period etc...

> Took it off the market for a few months and put it

> back on at let's say a more aggressive / realistic

> price and it sold for asking price within 2

> weeks...

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

Despite their obligations to do so, not sure all agents actually pass the lower offers on.

[dbboy]

Agents are out to achieve the highest price possible for the vendor. For every ?1000 the buyer pays the vendor the agent gets ?10 based on a 1% commission, so based on a property sold for ?750,000 the agent gets ?7500. i.e. ?10,000 for a property sold for a ?1000000

[JMK]

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/uk-property/

See link to interactive graphic showing rate of % change since 2000. Choose postcodes by touching the relevant area on the London map to turn on or off

SE23 and SE22 are higher in total % terms v's SE21 and SE24 since 2000, approaching 400%, although the later have a higher median price (presumably a higher mix of larger sized property). The most recent and aggressive increase in prices since approx 2012 driven by the quantitative easing of the Bank of England, European Central Bank

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

Agents are also sometimes out for a quick sale to make the commission, dbboy. Don't think it's possible to generalise.

[ratty]

Moved out three years ago and the property I bought had seen a just over 50% increase based on sales. It's happening all over but has to peak at some point.

However, with councils moving more and more lower income families and those on benefits out of London, to be inevitably replaced with those of more means, I think the bubble will last a tad longer.

We'll all be asset millionaires by then :( it's turning us into Tories.

[Blackcurrant]

The 3% stamp duty rise for buy to let that comes into effect this month caused property investors expanding portfolios to rush through purchases in the last few months, propping up prices, but now demand will fall back somewhat. Prices are at precarious levels but mortgage rates are incredibly low and will sustain things until rates rise, whenever that might be.

Prime London has been stagnant for a long time and all the growth in the last year has been in London's least desirable areas or outside London.

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

There have been financial disincentives for buy to let for a while. I think Ratty has it, although I know plenty of wealthy Labour supporters.

[ratty]

Black currant is brave coming on here and labelling ED as least desirable.

[pop9770]

Property prices cooling down all over London estate agents are twiddling their thumbs and the phones are not ringing.

Doesn't look good.

[ed_pete]

Could someone pass me the cheese and crackers...thanks. Port anyone ?

[DovertheRoad]

Lol.(and yawn)

Brief summary is that it's all screwed. Buy to let is now effectively finished as an attractive proposition for amateurs and flats not shifting and falling. Massive bubble for London prices.Bigger global economy due another massive correction, no real safe haven unless you like gold and that's up 20%. Did you hear we had our place valued at ?1.5M? I know...mad isn't it. And are you all ready for negative interest rates?

Pass me the quince jelly Andrew...

[Seabag]

DovertheRoad Wrote:

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> Lol.(and yawn)

>

> Did you hear we had our

> place valued at ?1.5M? I know...mad isn't it. And

> are you all ready for negative interest rates?

>

> Pass me the quince jelly Andrew...

It's medlar jelly in our house DoverTheRoad.....

I refuse (politely) to go any where near dinner parties/drinks with neighbours

Add a few drinks and the same old 'how much' plus 'that's a four bed house they live in, imagine what the council could get for that' conversation gets rolled out

It's tit numbingly boring

Can we play Snakes & Ladders now, I'm done with EDF Monopoly

[DovertheRoad]

Seabag Wrote:

---------------------------------------------

> It's medlar jelly in our house DoverTheRoad.....

Hipster.

[Seabag]

DovertheRoad Wrote:

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> Seabag Wrote:

> ---------------------------------------------

> > It's medlar jelly in our house

> DoverTheRoad.....

>

>

> Hipster.

Or Japanese Quince I'm partial too

Oh god, I'm a wankler

[Reg Smeeton]

One crude way of detecting a cooling market is to find out how many SE22 homes are on the market on Rightmove. At the moment it's 222, which is a lot more than a year ago. Over 50 of them are marked as 'Reduced', and quite a few of those were reduced in the last week. I predict prices will have fallen 10% from their peak by October this year. Any takers?

[TheArtfulDogger]

Now the sun is out, Spring is here I take the opposite Bet to reg ... Now let's see if my betting skills (unlike the 3 fallers I had at the national) are good uns or not..

[Seabag]

TheArtfulDogger Wrote:

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> Now the sun is out, Spring is here I take the

> opposite Bet to reg ... Now let's see if my

> betting skills (unlike the 3 fallers I had at the

> national) are good uns or not..

Jeezus H, what the hell are you talking about Dogger?

Words man, sentences, conclusions

We can't see into your silly head you know

Tisk

[Penguin68]

Over 50 of them are marked as 'Reduced', and quite a few of those were reduced in the last week. I predict prices will have fallen 10% from their peak by October this year. Any takers?

The problem with this is that you do not know where the 'reduced to' price sits against achieved prices at the peak. It may be that the reductions are back down to last year's peak only (i.e. that they were over-inflated to start with). If that's the case we are talking about prices holding, not necessarily falling. I tend to look only at recently 'sold' prices rather than any offer price. The most recent list of sales I have close to me is:-

30 Hillcourt Road ?1,060,000 12th February 2016

Flat 3, 218 Dunstans Road ?525,000 9th February 2016

Flat 42, Bredinghurst Overhill Road ?310,000 5th February 2016

157 Westwood Park ?790,000 29th January 2016

13a Westwood Park ?580,000 29th January 2016

63 Underhill Road ?1,440,000 29th January 2016

Ground Floor Flat, 162 Dunstans Road ?460,000 29th January 2016

178 Dunstans Road ?427,000 18th December 2015

107 Underhill Road ?1,750,000 15th December 2015

This doesn't look quite like a price collapse to me

[Loz]

Reg Smeeton Wrote:

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> I predict prices will have fallen 10% from their peak by October this

> year. Any takers?

Considering the peak was the mad times of Spring 2014, I suggest this (and more) has already happened