Bucking the trend in property prices

[Andyng]

benmorg Wrote:

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> It's a very dangerous time to be buying houses and

> people have got every right to be skeptical about

> the merits of properties that have been refurbed

> by developers (as the Telegraph article implies)

> and put up for sale at hundreds of thousands of

> pounds more than anything comparable.

are you a renter or owner?

[benmorg]

Both at the moment. Had two flats last year. Sold the one I was living in and now renting, but still currently trying to sell the other, before buying again (prob this winter).

[SimonM]

>>jesus there are some sad tossers on this forum, they can't help but pass judgement on things they really know nothing about. the guy who said the house on underhill road "really wasn't that spacious " must either live in a palace or be one bitter little man as its actually one of the largest houses in SE22 on the market right now<<

As the "bitter little man" in question I will leave it to those who know me to judge both my sweetness and size :)). When I described the house as "not that spacious". I meant for the price being asked - and based my assessment on the sizes of the rooms as shown in the detailed floor plans on Foxtons' website. It's still only a 5-bed* semi - for ?400K more you could have the 5 bed detached "palace" at the corner of Peckham Rye Park, also in SE22 of course - and only because the loft-space has been thoroughly exploited. Myself I reckon it is overpriced by at least ?250K...(based on what similar houses along the road have gone for)

* mea culpa - I now see there are 6 not 5 bedrooms

[safesurfer]

sorry about the 'little' tag. i meant in attitude rather than actual size of course!

i know "everyone does it", fair enough but i still say sad t*****s! .... simon m, you're possibly right about the asking price, and when, in a few months or so, you check nethouseprices.co.uk, as i bet you will, you'll probably be proved right!

[SimonM]

>>sorry about the 'little' tag. i meant in attitude rather than actual size of course! <<

I think when reading my original message you overlooked its context - namely the name and theme of this thread. I had been startled to see how much the asking price of this house was when it went on the market (I live quite close to it and knew how long work had been done it previously) and had thought "they'll never get that much for it - whatever it is like inside" - (hence my "still not terribly spacious" comment. But then the "Sold" sign went up in seemingly no time at all, and it was the fact of it (apparently) being sold that made me draw attention to it here. I thought this was interesting in the light of what others were saying about current property price trends in the area as regards other properties on sale.

I made no personal comments about the sellers as of course I do not know them at all.

[eccentric]

benmorg Wrote:

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Even the idiots at foxtons have used

> pictures showing how overlooked the garden is by

> the neighbour's roof terrace.

Perhaps the idiots at Fuxtons thought the neighbour's roof terrace would enhance the property as it's Ms Barkers!

[benmorg]

maybe that would explain the price. People pay a premium for celebrity neighbours

[dc]

benmorg Wrote:

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> It's a very dangerous time to be buying houses

I'm worried now. Might I get stabbed if I put in the 'wrong' offer?

[Marmora Man]

For reasons I don't quite understand the following information was sent to me - all details from the Land Registry, so accurate but perhaps a 6 / 8 weeks out of date. There's enough variation to give a flavour of real prices in the area.

226a, Friern Road, SE22 0BB - Sold for ?322,000 on 17-03-2008

206, Upland Road, SE22 0DH - Sold for ?863,000 on 12-03-2008

Flat B, 130, Barry Road, SE22 0HW - Sold for ?348,000 on 07-03-2008

42, Hillcourt Road, SE22 0PE - Sold for ?550,000 on 28-02-2008

20a, Barry Road, SE22 0HU - Sold for ?380,000 on 27-02-2008

Flat 161, Ladlands, Overhill Road, SE22 0PW - Sold for ?235,000 on 15-02-2008

Flat C, 122, Barry Road, SE22 0HP - Sold for ?368,000 on 01-02-2008

119, Goodrich Road, SE22 0ER - Sold for ?499,995 on 01-02-2008

Flat 18, 214 Rye Court, Peckham Rye, SE22 0LT - Sold for ?275,000 on 18-01-2008

Flat 1, 218, Dunstans Road, SE22 0ES - Sold for ?175,000 on 17-12-2007

[Asset]

I walked past this particular house on Melbourne yesterday morning. The Wooster and Stock board had been taken down and in its place was a Foxtons' board saying 'Foxtons sale'. Then, when I walked past later in the afternoon the Foxtons' board was gone and the Wooster and Stock board was back up. Do you think Foxtons are running around replacing other boards with their own?

[Andyng]

dc Wrote:

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> benmorg Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > It's a very dangerous time to be buying houses

>

> I'm worried now. Might I get stabbed if I put in

> the 'wrong' offer?

Mr doom and gloom

[dc]

Andyng Wrote:

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> dc Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> > benmorg Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> > > It's a very dangerous time to be buying houses

> >

> > I'm worried now. Might I get stabbed if I put in

> > the 'wrong' offer?

>

> Mr doom and gloom

Actually the opposite - I was trying to introduce some sense of proportion through a not very subtle use of irony. It might just be a 'difficult' or 'challenging' time to be buying houses, but 'very dangerous'? I think not.

[dc]

Asset Wrote:

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> Do you think Foxtons are running around

> replacing other boards with their own?

Common practice by the sounds of it Rogue Estate Agents

[benmorg]

dc Wrote:

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> Actually the opposite - I was trying to introduce

> some sense of proportion through a not very subtle

> use of irony. It might just be a 'difficult' or

> 'challenging' time to be buying houses, but 'very

> dangerous'? I think not.

I'm surprised you took "very dangerous" to mean physically dangerous. I'd meant "financially dangerous", i.e. there is a real danger of negative equity/losing a great deal of money. From a financial point of view, it's a dangerous time to buy - like playing roulette with your financial future. You can argue over the "very" if you like.

[Andyng]

Theres a greater chance of losing a lot of money the smaller your deposit in it.

Sounds proposterous that a certain person stated that people in ED would choose

to sell there properties ie get off the property market spend money on rent

and put all there savings in the bank where there paying income tax anyway -that

I cannot comprehend

[benmorg]

andyng - do you work for an estate agent?

[Bony Fido]

Melbourne Grove house is slightly down in asking price already:-

http://www.woosterstock.co.uk/Detail.php?id=5209

[macroban]

With a Spring 2008 baseline valuation of c?290k the Melbourne Grove house seems to be slightly over-priced.

[Andyng]

nope

[Jeremy]

Macroban, can you explain to us less-informed posters what the "baseline valuation" means?

[macroban]

Baseline valuation is what a cash purchase investor is likely to pay to get a standard return on investment.

In good times residential properties attract a premium above the baseline. In this case it would be things like:

?2k for a talking point at dinner parties

?10k because the garden suits

?20k because the kitchen and bathroom are liked so don't have to be ripped out and start again.

?40k because it's in the catchment area for good infant/primary schools.

The premium depends on the (funded) prospective purchaser.

[Jeremy]

Interesting point, but as we all know, the market is not determined by cash investors!

[alice]

cash investors like that must live in a dream world - standard price for such a house is around 650k with this one's flash finish add 15%. property investors gen look for 20% profit - thus 600/620K is more like what a cash buyer would pay. are you keeping up?

BUT as nothing is selling right now the whole discussion is sort of hypothetical and meaningless.

Mind you i bet it'll be sold by the summer

[macroban]

Jeremy:

You're right. The introduction of the 1957 Housing Act started the decline of private landlords buying East Dulwich terraces and small semis with the intention of adding to a property portfolio to provide a rental income stream and thus being a major consumer price determinant of these types of properties. Those were also the days of strict mortgage rationing. I can't imagine that anyone here is interested in a potted description of East Dulwich property tenures and house prices 50 years ago.

However, that baseline valuation is still a useful marker for a bottom line price of a property's "economic value". It is most unlikely that consumer house prices will fall to this level because of the premium a funded prospective purchaser would be willing to pay.

It is also possible that baseline valuations may starting falling if tenants can no longer afford current rent levels.

Alice:

I'm sorry, but I'm not keeping up. I do not understand your calculations. In any event, it will be interesting to see the premium paid when the property sells.

[alice]

thanks for your polite comment - but what is this thing 'baseline valuation' where did the term come from? never heard of it myself.