????

Alan Medic Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What do they say about form..............? 2/2 victories in your Egg chasing predictor games puts me in the Class category I reckon Dr

...you mean that literally steveo? (not in the farm buying way)

you've probably got about 6 months grace before some posters start saying "This forum isn't as good as it was back in the day"

Has anyone done the Archduke Ferdinand 'joke' yet?

Didn't something similar happen to him on a flight LadyN*? or was that someone else *not the walking out bit

Oh ok then - but just my opinion (Lordship can build a model) Outcomes Reduction in Holidays overall - money spent elsewhere= good for UK economy Holidays abroad substituted by UK holidays= Good for the UK economy Holidays abroad remain constant but budget's taken from other spending=bad for UK economy Holidays abroad remain constant but discretionary holiday spending reduced to compensate= neutral for UK economy Meanwhile UK more attractive holiday destination for overseas visitors= Good for the UK economy All in all in the 'holiday' bit a fall in the ? will probably be better (my opinion) for the UK although personally annoying and more expensive for me and family....

Henry_17 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ?, > But what about the MILLIONS of Britons for whom it > is going to cost more to go on holiday? ?? Though not an economist, I'll keep away from the Daily Mail level of economic analysis.... :)

- who were you on the EDF?

We knew that on day 1 post-Brexit though RD, - don't disagree on the general point.

So , the PMI index isn't as relevant as the 'full report' - there are some inconsistencies in your arguments In fact the topline PMI for construction in September was 52.3 in September - way above forecast and signifying growth. This mirrored higher than expected PMI in both Manufacturing and Services too and, as an economist like you knows, construction is the smallest of these three. As you said just yesterday: "The PMI figure is one of the most reliable indicators that has consistently predicted economic performance - fact not opinion." Have you changed your mind since? Basically what I am saying is , and I think you'd have to agree, that THUS FAR - almost all key economic data is above consensus economic expectations at the time of Brexit - Employment - GDP - PMI in all 3 secrets - FTSE We are doing better than most economists (and you) thought AT THIS POINT. The early reads on yours and others models haven't proved very accurate YET.

To quote you "The PMI figure is one of the most reliable indicators that has consistently predicted economic performance - fact not opinion. Much of he reporting is qualative but it is reported by experienced professionals and is segregated between large, medium & small companies so it is a serious and dependable index worldwide" So is this true or not? Because it's bounced back for Services, Manufacturing and Construction and above predictions..... Consumer confidence is what it is, a measurement of where sentiment is RIGHT NOW, whether stoked or false but now up again - next year may well change I suspect that it will but that's an opinion and interest rates have been low for years and that's positive for many consumers, annuities only effect the retired, so don't see how these will effect consumer confidence materially as you state above - not much logic in your argument here, again. In fact if inflation goes up interest rates more likely to rise and my feel is that will actually have a negative effect on consumer confidence. Uncertainty remains things may well get worse - my opinion (too) but the fact thus far haven't chimed with your earlier analysis on where we are now.

...in a way I prefer the traditional ones. Hideous ones creeping into HR like Talent Seeker - Recruitment Manager People Enabler - Training Executive or anything with Curator included in it unless you are an actual fecking proper Curator *pukes*

The problem I have with your analysis Lordship - is that you keep changing your tune. At first you said we had no data but you early reads on 'your model' were for calamity - and now almost all the data is better than expected, you are concentrating on the one bit that isn't - the ? and making general comments about QE that are true and true globally and bugger all to do with Brexit. You are then going into conjecture about what consumers will be doing next year - which is, after all, just your opinion. For clarity, I voted remain, i too see uncertainty (it's not a difficult thing to predict) and think things would have been better if we'd stayed but the data, that you implied was so important when you started your analysis immediately post Brexit, is by an large pretty benign THUS FAR. I am a layman with interest in economics you are a self-claimed pro, but your predictions have been wide of the mark TO DATE . Of course no-one knows what the future may hold but your early predictions look over pessimistic to where we are now. I see some inconsistencies in your arguments, which feel more political that sound modelling - which is a pretty dismal science anyway! You have a slightly I am an expert style of posting when so far you haven't demonstrated much! I enjoy our debates so don't take this personally - more like an online chat over a virtual pint :)

Wall of text! MY bit on PMI > The biggest downers in data are consumer > confidence & PMI but BOTH are survey data based on > sentiment, which given the apocalyptic warnings > pre-referendum were not likely to be up - but > still of concern I'd agree. Uncertainty/sentiment > still the issue not reality I agree with you on PMI......remind me what has happened with that (PMI) since July? :) (and Consumer Confidence).

- best place for a Sunday Roast - any doggers on here?

Alan Medic Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Hello Admin. > > I just wondered if it was feasible for each post > in a thread to have a number? The idea of this is > to stop people quoting a whole bl**dy post to add > their 3 words of comment. Instead they could quote > number 54 or whatever. 100

rahrahrah Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ... in fact a number of excellent state schools > are located in poor areas with extremely diverse > intakes. Especially in London. To suggest that the > state system entrenches privilege to the degree > public schools do, is wide of the mark imo. I agree, let's ask Shami Chakabrati or Diane Abbot or several other members of 'you know who's' cabal

That'll be two weeks running now I'm finding my form again :)

Upstairs at the East Dulwich Tavern I saw many who went on to become massive in the 90s - Norton, Izzard, Brand, Jupitus, etc I saw a few who I thought were great but never quite made it (the bloke who was the computer in Red Dwarf)...but there was some utter dross too. I'm not sure if all the Alternative Comedy of the 80s passes the test of time too - Ben Elton looks dated and shouty; Alexis Sale ditto.

I kind of think* there's a lot of pre-negotition grandstanding/positioning going on to be honest and compromises will be made (*ok, hope)

"It's quiet out there sir" "Too quiet, Lieutenant, too quiet"

Mick Mac Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Chief Executive Clive Schlee gave staff permission > to hand out free drinks to anyone they fancy. > > "They will decide 'I like the person on the > bicycle' or 'I like the guy in that tie' or 'I > fancy that girl or that boy'," he told the Evening > Standard. > > "It means 28 per cent of people have had something > free. It?s a nice, different way of doing it." They obviously liked your tie Mick

Some random thoughts If they'd voted to leave last time (and their petty nationalists didn't have the balls unlike our petty nationalists) they would have been busto by now and had to have gone to the ECB cap in hand for a bail out Who the hell will they blame when things go wrong when they are independent? Scotland as some bastion of progressiveness.....you are having a laugh

I'm beginning to miss Cameron & Osbourne :)

5-1 Germany was after that