Sephiroth

Let's cast our mind back to summer 2018 - government demanding companies involved in brexit planning sign non-disclosure agreements lest people find out what was going to happen Source involved in planning "People will shit themselves and THINK they want a new referendum" Thousands of lorries stuck in Kent for days because France worried about new virus strain found in UK? That's the French being mean to the UK, out of order Frenchies, boo hiss how dare they. It's an outrage! People's lives are affected! Food and medicines are affected!! Thousands of lorries stuck in Kent for days because Sovrin-T and brexit? Totally worth it - all part of the plan dear boy. We knew what we were voting for etc etc

Or Iggy

does anyone apart from TB actually think me and BB are one and the same?

I?ve never met blah blah to my knowledge I used to be straferjack and SeanMacGabhann tho But you probably mix us up because on this subject we are correct and you are way off beam

The lorry drivers will be well employed in the eu and extremely reluctant to do trips to the U.K. in future. That?s the lesson to learn here We haven?t left yet - we are just a few working days away from ending transition. But the testing before the end date and the new strain have illustrated the problems with the uks notion of sovereignty Speaking of sovereignty, france is utilising theirs, despite being bound by their slave masters. Or whatever keano is calling them this week And still, and still leavers are doubling down blaming everyone but themselves for the decisions they have made and learning nothing. It?s all still ?prosper mightily? and ?over by Christmas? and still you believe.

Absolute mad that the same leave supporters in the middle of all this are doubling down There has been a complete uncoupling from reality. But I already know who the headbangers are. They are beyond help It?s the more ?rational? actors nodding this along that has me in despair.

Eat out to help out problem is t that it did or didn?t I?m trade infections in and of itself Or the amount of money spent (I think that should have just been given to hospitality to stay shut) It?s that it fed a general belief that This Was Over and we could go back to normal. Despite lockdown 2/tiers, people are behaving very differently to April

Sunak is on the extreme end of the ?herd immunity? wing. If trust that guy as far so could throw him (True of entire government. But his stock is comparitively high)

Interesting that the cat has singled out blah as the worst contributor to this thread when trinnydad is off posting completely made up, projectionist, xenophobic and irrelevant nonsense Still, it all beats dealing with the reality of what?s happening

Meanwhile, away from the empty biscuit tin full of ?sovrin-T virus?, and in the real world https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy8x77/this-corner-of-england-is-ground-zero-for-brexit-chaos-and-it-literally-reeks-of-piss Now, on the one hand, part of this will get better as everyone gets used to the new rules On the other hand it won?t get much better and will remain a lot worse than what we have been used to for decades. All pain. No gain

How...how did I change the subject?

Given the concerns about supply chains, jobs, prices etc, this continued obsession about getting the vaccine a couple of weeks early is flimsy at best and just downright weird. In no way does it constitute any kind of genuine benefit

the other side of the "but it really won't be a big deal if you really still want to go and live in an EU country" is that it presupposes it's just a few forms But remember the EU didn't vote to to Leave - the UK did. And one of the big reasons for that was to take back control of borders - a lot of people really want to say no to some people moving to UK. So obviously that is going to apply in reverse - some people who could move to an EU country will actually no longer be able to do so, no matter how many forms they fill in Dress it up any way you want - but it is losing freedom

There is some merit in this point - of all the downsides of Brexit, the practical outcome of this is RELATIVELY minimal But that said - it is A loss of freedom. We don't all want to go and live in Spain- , but it is nice to know we could at any point. And that has gone. Or at least the version without hassle has gone Plus travel generally - it has been easier and more pleasurable to hop on a train or plane to Paris than to NY - will have more friction Which isn't end of the world stuff - but it's unnecessary. And if it came with a side order of benefits then we could see the point. But as ever - those benefits are intangible, elusive and are, to date, still in the minds of it's proponents

"Whatever the outcome of the current hiatus, the EU is unlikely to exist long term in its current form. " This is a common trope in brexit circles but has no basis in reality. It was also mentioned in the Blake article posted by J&B It just gets trotted out - never with any genuine facts to back it up. But every warning from Business, from economists, from other countries, from border staff about impact of Brexit gets ignored - despite being based on people who know what they are talking about

Those aren?t reasons. They are wild opinions that are largely baseless

Amazing. 27 countries including the French , the Germans, the Irish. None of them can see this amazing sci fi future that you can keano. Why wouldn?t they want in as well? Because you?ve just invented some fictional nonsense to justify U.K. trying to scam a new treaty

This is so tiresome I place no faith in this government. They are rubbish and you should treat everything the say and do with scorn They commissioned reports into the damage Brexit will do (not just no deal). Those reports Were Not Good. Very Bad. But those reports did not come from "remainers" like me Yet this government has read those reports and are telling us to our faces that Britain will "prosper mightily" you can look at Raab in TV studios spouting his nonsense and believe him if you want to All I'm saying is that, away from nutters like Raab, Johnson et al (some of whom know full well the damage about to happen) independent government reports, and business and all sensible economists (not Minford) and all other sensible EU countries (speak to citizens in Ireland and Germany for example) - the overwhelming consensus is this if a Monumental FUCK UP. Now you disagree - but your view is worthless in the scheme of things. No-one of any standing agrees with you. Your contrition should things not pan out (and "not panning out" does NOT = "living in mud huts") is of no value to anyone I mention Argentina as an example of a once fantastically wealthy and independent country which was arrogant enough to throw it all away - does that mean that WILL happen with Brexit? Not necessarily - but it is Argentina-level-folly-adjacent Are there bad faith actors who will profit financially from a Brexit? Yes. Is it that meaningful in big scene of things - probably not - but they will have lied to the UK population when it mattered (ie not now) International Pariah? Strong words - but again, no-one is looking at UK behaviour and thinking "there is a country I can trust". Rollover deals to date are just that. What happened with Japan rollover deal (to take an example) when their deal with EU shifts? All you have are empty words "ooh I don't want no deal - I'm not saying that's good"!. Is it possible the the worst outcomes will be avoided? Most likely - but they remain a risk And if they are avoided what will have been the factors in said avoidance. - it will be the very things leavers claim as their right. Sovereignty. Some sovereignty will have been ceded to avoid the worst outcomes But this whole time, the government have continued to smile and say we will "prosper mightily" - which is obviously a lie of the most morally reprehensible magnitude

Once again It isn?t claims from people like you versus remainers like us It?s the governments own analysis. It?s business of all shades and shapes. They are all saying what is going to happen. So don?t project your insecurities onto people like me

? If we're living in mud huts in 12 months, I'll concede it probably wasnt a price worth paying.? That?ll be some comfort

That?s a lot of words for ?This doesn?t sound good. We won?t be living in mud huts. But it sounds bad? So go back to 2016. Put that on a referendum and win that THEN you have a mandate But this? This is some bullshit Forget the goddamn U.K. Ireland alone is reason enough to not proceed. No mud huts involved there either but actual peace after decades. This whole thing is such bogus, Willy waving nonsense

Yes

Why not? She was as bad as everyone else. She knew the damage Brexit would do, was a remainer and then went along with lies to save her own skin This rewriting of history is just so much nonsense. There never was a soft Brexit possible. Pick a soft Brexit. Any version. And then see how much leaver throw a fit and ditch their prime minister Anyone pretending there was some good version of brexit is guilty of being away with the birds. The only options ever available were remain. Or a Brexit to satisfy the headbangers who shouted loudest for 40 years. Everything else is some genteel delusion

"the UK government (under all 3 PMs we've had since the referendum) has made significantly tougher going of the process of leaving that it probably needed to be." I think it's worth digging into why this might be. Bad fortune alone seems unlikely? TO have one prime minister unable to handle brexit well is unfortunate, to have two etc etc The simple, and obvious reason (which you will reject) is because it's a bad idea, means different things to different leave voters and is undeliverable without smashing the economy, breaking up the UK and still disappointing large % of leave voters By all means, paint a picture (real or fictional) of a prime minister who would be capable of delivering a good brexit, what it would look like and who wouldn't alienate the differing leave factions The reason we have had 3 prime ministers unable to deliver it is because as soon as IT starts to take a form, any form, beyond the fantastical promises, it pisses enough people off to ditch a prime minister. And we will shortly have another to add to that list (as well as the broken economy, angry population, Scottish referendum etc) Risk is all very well as a concept - but as you know it's about weighing the possible benefits against possible losses and includes probabilities. The possible wins of brexit were always nebulous and meaningless in harsh daylight, the losses were always way too harsh and risky (the country doesn't shoot for a prize and if it misses go back to where it was) and the probability massively weighted towards the latter The wins potentially include UK surging ahead of Germany, France etc and becoming some amazing success story. That was never likely What is going to happened is UK will AT BEST end up being the basket case it was in the 70s. Just as likely is even further to fall - Argentina being a salutary story But sure - people like me, Red Devil/rouge/blah are wrong but people like Farage, Redwood, Martin, O'Neil, Grimes etc are the smart people in the room If the only WIN is Sovereignty then we have very definition Fool's Gold. It's meaningless concept in the modern world of trade. It seems unlikely that Germany, France, Ireland and all the rest don't get "sovereignty" and there is a reason they aren't all clamouring for it in the way that extremists in UK are

? If the economic fallout is quite as apocalyptic as many remainers seem to think it will be then every section of the economy and all jobs are at risk. ? Don?t take remainers word for it. Government?s own analysis will do just fine Eu countries have sovereignty U.K. will have to give parts of it?s sovereignty with every new trade deal they do As a principle it is the most deluded and self-defeating in history