Blah Blah

Many young people live in overcrowded homes. This why parks should not be closed. Millions of households have no gardens. Many families are housed in flats with small rooms with children sharing bedrooms. Even worse, there are around 70,000 families nationwide living in just one room! Most people are maintaining social distancing, so there must be a better way to deal with the few who aren't.

Of course it is important. Achieving it against a virus for which there is no working vaccine and of which there is evidence of mutation (from previous versions of SARS) is another matter. Epidemiologists are always looking for the next big one. COVID19 may well be it.

Most people are doing what is asked. As we all know, things are getting grim in our hospitals. It feels like two worlds. There are hundreds of COVID patients in London's main hospitals. Front line workers are working in extremely stressful and testing circumstances. So please everyone. Stay at home for them. We can fix the economy when the time comes. We can not replace lives lost. Look after those in your communities that need extra help to stay safe and let's hope we emerge from this in a better place, about what matters most in life.

Okay, the question to ask is what can a mask do to stop virus from transmitting? If you are sneezing or coughing, a mask will stop 80% of any viral material from traveling the distance required to infect another within 2 meters of you. But if you are not infected, a mask does not protect you from the virus if someone coughs on you. Front line medical staff need full PPE for a reason. A surgical mask is not enough. So if you have any cough, wear a mask. Otherwise, leave the production of protective material to providing the higher level PPE that front line staff really need.

Some of this increase may well be down to lack of opportunity elsewhere. A house burglar for example, will struggle to find an empty home. A street robber will be told to stay two meters away and given the lack of drunken victims wandering about at night, and no restaurants full of people with bags to pinch....and so on. Even the high street sportswear and brands shoplifter is struggling now. It is perhaps the only bright side of this - criminals being put out of business. Those who thieve to support drug and alcohol addictions though, will target any shop that is open.

Yes Seenbeen. The Chinese (and others) have been trying to develop a vaccine since that first outbreak and two further small outbreaks were the result of laboratory workers catching the virus. There is also a correlation between viral load and severity of symptoms in mice and rats which may explain why front line health workers are always disproportionately affected in a pandemic. But you can replicate that in a public arena if you put an uninfected person in a room full of infected people. This is also a very good reason for containing spread as quickly as possible. I do think the WHO were slow to classify a pandemic. Possibly complacent due to previous outbreaks being contained in Asia or the Middle East. Ebola too in Africa. The Chinese unpacked the genome sequence very quickly and published immediately, so there was no excuse for not understanding this virus is a SARS mutation. And just to add that the first reports of this virus emerged as small one line alerts at the very end of December. Health professionals were warning journalists at the time that this could be serious. By the end of January, those same health professionals were warning the press to watch the USA, because they were not responding as they need to and it will likely explode there. One of the most difficult things in the West has been in getting populist leaders to face the science. This posturing has absolutely cost lives. For once, the experts are right.

Amazon. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Cable-Canon-4000D-2000D-PowerShot-Black/dp/B07RYMD9Y4

Even this forum has a thread for celebrity deaths does it not?

DF is off the mark on this one fishbiscuits. I repeat that it is not yet known how long any immunity lasts. With SARS CoV (1), it is just months, and it is constantly declining through those months. Now imagine, you have a pandemic that waves its way around the world. That means we could be facing an new wave of infection every few months, with little or no immunity in play. If that virus then mutates, it could be more virulent, more deadly. This is precisely what happened with Spanish Flu, which in the end had an estimated 3% fatality across the globe. In real terms that was up to 100 million deaths in just 12-18 months. Add into that the a-symptomatic superspreaders and it all becomes very dangerous. Now compare that to SARS CoV (1) with its 10% mortality rate. You can see why epidemiologists and virologists are taking the lines they are. We have the benefit of advanced medical technology, and ability to genome sequence and look directly at the proteins on the tips of those antigens. The science of zoonotic viruses and pandemics is well understood. But it is a complex science in many ways, and the challenge has been in getting a public that may not grasp the complexity, or is resistant to blindly believing what experts tell them, to understand the risks. Millions of sick and dying people would be as damaging to the global economy as these short term lock downs are going to be. But of course, there are going to be many people who won't believe what could happen, unless they see it happen. That is the frustrating part for scientists but also for governments too, who are always half thinking about the next election. One of the most dangerous part of the messaging imo has been comparisons to flu. Influenza A is the only strain of flu that is zoonotic, but developing a vaccine for that is relatively easy. Migrating birds are constantly monitored for antigenic drift in that A virus, from which each seasons flu vaccine can be made. Antigenic shift is a bigger challenge (swine flu is an example of that in play) but again, the method for vaccine is well practised. With SARS viruses, we haven't as yet found an effective vaccine protocol. COVID19 is not a flu virus. This IS different. I don't really know what more I can say to get that across.

Sorry Holloway, but the evidence is that SARS viruses do not deliver indefinite immunity (with some people being reinfected after as little as three months). So herd immunity in this way could never be achieved. This is why the race is on for effective drug treatment and/or a vaccine. Otherwise we could face wave after wave of this with mutation between waves. Clinical trials for a vaccine for MERS only began in Decemeber of last year. These SARS viruses are particularly challenging when it comes to vaccine development so far. But a lot of research has been done since 2003 so hopefully that will speed up the way to a vaccine for this pandemic.

Sorry DF, but not all viruses work like that. The closest virus to COVID19 is Sars CoV (and the lab name for COVID19 is in fact SARS CoV2). SARS CoV does not produce eternal immunity according to the latest research. It seems to provide early immunity that decreases within a year. And SARS CoV had a final mortality rate of 10% after the 2003 outbreak. We still have no vaccine for SARS CoV, although there is a lot of research towards that end which may be helpful in developing a working vaccine for COVID19. COVID19 shares 69.7% of its DNA with SARS CoV. So it is far too early to assume immunity comes with the virus. In addition, this is a virus that can mutate, and the concern is of a second wave that differs from the first wave. No immunity in place then. The more the virus spreads, the more likely that mutation is. And risking that before we have effective treatment (or a vaccine) is too much of a risk. Finally, on the issue of herd immunity. In most cases, that has only really been achieved with the help of a vaccine. We did not develop herd immunity to measles because most children got it. Every child is born without immunity to many things. And measles is a very dangerous virus. Millions of people dying from anything is the reason why we create vaccines and try to prevent pandemics. And as PN says. Suddenly having 18% of the population (which seems to be the percentage of people who need ICU care to recover) needing hospital treatment, would mean the NHS being overwhelmed with a million plus patients at any one time. That inevitably would lead to more people dying than need to. We have been lucky in the West, to have avoided a real pandemic for 100 years. Asia, Africa and the Middle East however, have not been so lucky, which perhaps explains why they also are faster to respond, knowing exactly what needs to be done.

We had some things delivered this week that would usually require a signature, but drivers are not doing that which is sensible. I agree with Sue. Online shopping is a good way to keep business going with minimal risk. Most people are at home to take in parcels the moment they are left on their doorsteps. And in theory,it is easier for factories and warehouses to operate social distancing than a shop which has public footfall. And we have to consider mental health too. Many people will be occupying their time with home improvements, which can include a new lampshade among other things. We don't have to stop everything to get through this.

I would say either mid morning, or mid afternoon. That way you avoid the cold early morning and cooling early evening. In the summer, you want to miss the midday heat, if that makes sense.

Celebrity deaths are always reported, irregardless of what they die from. Why would that be any different during a pandemic?

Tonsillitis often requires antibiotics to clear and can induce complications in the sinuses and ear if not treated, or peritonsillar abscesses which are pockets of infection outside of the tonsil area. If you feel your GP is not responding in an appropriate way, and speaking with another GP at the practice is not an option (for another diagnosis), then absolutely go to A+E. Treatment of all other conditions has not stopped because of COVID19.

Penguin, I know all of that. But some kind of measurement does exist, with all its flaws, because without it, there would be no recognition of what constitutes a pandemic vs just a very bad flu season. And a person can be tested for influenza A virus just as easily as any other virus if a medical measurement needs to be made of that. I also disagree that referring to present data is meaningless. It is what enables a measure of the risk level of the virus. It also enables a comparison of how different responses and resources compare. Where I would agree with you is in that only once antibody tests can be done widely, will we get an essence of the true spread of the virus before the lock down measures came in. But for now, it is enough to know that it spreads easily and sends too many people to hospital needing intensive treatment.

Sorry Worldwiser, but that is just not how mortality rates are measured. Comparing mortality to cases presenting themselves for treatment however, IS, how mortality is calculated. So if 3% are fatalities, that is 30 times more than the 0.1% for seasonal flu. It is frustrating to see the playing down of the seriousness of this by the argument around non-diagnosed and therefore, uncounted for, cases. 3% (and the global average may well get closer to 10% by the time this is over) is millions of people. This SARS virus sees 18% (from data so far) of those developing symptoms, needing ICU care. And some people, with no underlying conditions are dying. So let's just accept that this is a serious global pandemic, and that until we have effective antiviral treatment, and/or a working vaccine, this is something we need to keep under control as far as we can. Let's hope the virus doesn't mutate between waves too.

Eggs last at least three to five weeks in a fridge and up to a year in the freezer dbboy.

Yes, I pointed out the FDA approval for trials in a reply above. The Plasma works to kick start antibody production in already ill patients. So might be the only effective treatment for some patients until an effective drug treatment emerges. The USA is heading for the worst figures on infection and deaths so far.

I would say the probability is high if the US trials give positive results. And yes, group O blood can receive plasma from any other blood group.

The are a range of risks (plasma has more risk than other types of blood transfusion). Serious adverse reactions include acute lung injury, circulatory overload, and allergic/anaphylactic reaction. Less common risks include transmission of infection, febrile non-hemolytic reaction, RBC allo-immunization, and hemolytic reaction. Fortunately, all of those things can be treated, but this kind of treatment has never been used in place of a vaccine, mainly because any benefit it creates is temporary. Hence it being useful for helping those fighting the infection (as a form of treatment), but would require repeated shots to work like any vaccine. It would never be offered to anyone not in a high risk group.

This is not a simple process and carries all kinds of risks. Plasma transfusion of any kind has no guarantee of working. The only way this would be tested, is in patients who have no other way of recovering. There are a whole range of trials any treatment has to go through before it can be licensed for wider use. The story has made the newspapers because the FDA in the USA has cleared the trial of convalescent plasma for use in extreme cases where the patient?s life is seriously or immediately threatened. It would be some time, and require much more comprehensive research before any such treatment would be on offer anywhere.

Prince Charles was eligible for testing because of his age. He was treated by the same policy all people over 70 and displaying possible symptoms are currently treated by the NHS.

lol yes, there will be a lot of bored new owners of gym equipment at the end of one month.

The stats for any pandemic change all the time during the pandemic itself. Only at the end can any definitive figure be given on mortality. BUT is it enough to know that this is not flu, that this virus is twice as infectious and 30 times more deadly. That in itself should be enough to understand why this is not anything like a bout of seasonal flu.