Why are house prices so high when the economy is dire?!!?

[DaveR]

"It's simplistic to think in terms of location in the current market, which is fractured along price boundaries more than geographical ones."

It's also simplistic to ignore location, because there is still such a strong link between location and price. The price differential between ED and Nunhead for comparable houses/flats of whatever size and condition demonstrates that, but at the same time it is clear that ED is not like St John's Wood or South Ken where the premium for a desirable location is nailed on.

Price across the market as a whole (as opposed to differentials) is ultimately determined by both incomes and the cost of credit. For the former, London will continue to have a concentration of comparatively high-earners for the foreseeable future. For the latter, lenders (with the assistance of government) are already openly exploring ways to get first-time buyers back into the market, and those lenders are going to regard London property generally as a better risk than most other parts of the UK. The higher up the chain you go, the more equity there is and the more secure it is.

Conclusion - 4 double bed family homes, with gardens, near stations, in reasonable neighbourhoods with nice shops and decent primary schools are going to be in high demand anywhere, and there genuinely aren't many places in London Zones 2-3 that tick all those boxes and are cheaper than ED. Try Streatham.

[benmorg]

DaveR Wrote:

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> It's also simplistic to ignore location, because

> there is still such a strong link between location

> and price.

I think we agree. The correlation between location and price causes a lot of confusion about the market. London as a whole appears to have escaped the worst of the crash, but that's only because expensive houses have held up. The bottom of the market continues to fall, even in desirable locations within London. There's no such thing as a crash-proof location.

> Conclusion - 4 double bed family homes, with

> gardens, near stations, in reasonable

> neighbourhoods with nice shops and decent primary

> schools are going to be in high demand anywhere,

> and there genuinely aren't many places in London

> Zones 2-3 that tick all those boxes and are

> cheaper than ED. Try Streatham.

This wasn't the case in 2008, when prices fell across the board. The high demand for big family homes in good locations is supported by the low bank rate. Put up the rate and demand will fall off, though perhaps not as much as at the bottom of the market where buyers have less equity.

> Try Streatham.

No need, I have a house in ED.

[chantelle]

don't forget good schools on the list.

also plenty of bankers and other City types in ED and environs ... shhhh.

[benmorg]

chantelle Wrote:

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> also plenty of bankers and other City types in ED

> and environs ... shhhh.

Sure, but they're invariably back-office staff.

[Maccers]

Not all true, I am a (ahem, front-office banker) and proud owner of a 4 bed house near station bought in last 16 months for c.600k. If you search hard enough, the properties are there. If you bargain even harder, they are there for the right price.

benmorg Wrote:

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> chantelle Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > also plenty of bankers and other City types in

> ED

> > and environs ... shhhh.

>

> Sure, but they're invariably back-office staff.

[benmorg]

Maccers Wrote:

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> Not all true, I am a (ahem, front-office banker)

> and proud owner of a 4 bed house near station

> bought in last 16 months for c.600k. If you

> search hard enough, the properties are there. If

> you bargain even harder, they are there for the

> right price.

edit: oops, wrong thread.

Which bank? Can I have a job there?

[Jeremy]

As I was saying, not all bankers (even traders and other front-office) are rich, and even those that are might not want to put all their money into property. If you want a sub-million pound house with 4/5 bedrooms, within an easy commute to the City and Canary Wharf, East Dulwich would seem like a reasonable bet.

[Maccers]

Couldn't agree more Jeremy. ED is a great place to live, I've been here since 2002. As others have already said, relative to some other areas of south London within the circular is still good value.

Jeremy Wrote:

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> As I was saying, not all bankers (even traders and

> other front-office) are rich, and even those that

> are might not want to put all their money into

> property. If you want a sub-million pound house

> with 4/5 bedrooms, within an easy commute to the

> City and Canary Wharf, East Dulwich would seem

> like a reasonable bet.

[Louisa]

I personally believe East Dulwich has hit it's ceiling, and would have done so regardless of the credit crunch. The only reason prices are remaining stable is because of demand/supply, just basic economics really. The lack of tube, poor transport links relative to other inner London areas and a high street still lacking many major retailers (primarily down to lack of space) will mean that this area will now remain stable for the foreseeable future.

Louisa.

[chantelle]

transport depends where you are. Peckham Rye has fantastic links, perhaps the best in South London, and it's going to get even better with the Overground coming.

[benmorg]

chantelle Wrote:

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> transport depends where you are.

When Deptford got DLR, it didn't help boost house prices and didn't improve the area. I'm not sure the Overground will make much difference, though it might lift prices slightly before people realise how little difference it makes to transport links.

[benmorg]

Louisa Wrote:

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> The only reason prices are remaining stable is because

> of demand/supply, just basic economics really.

Supply of housing is fixed. It's demand that can change overnight if mortgages suddenly get cheaper (unlikely) or more expensive (inevitable).

[mrcee]

We can all try and speculate but its really not that straight forward, demand is linked to currency markets, education, transportation, availability of equity & debt, area appeal etc. Any one of these changing is strong enough to influence a market.

Supply is also influenced by the above trends.

Ultimately unless your investor, if you can afford it and love it then buy it and enjoy it

[chantelle]

benmorg - you've got to be kidding. Deptford may not be some top destination but it has definitely had massive development and new build flats are going at similar prices to nicer areas.

[Frankito]

At the end of the day prices are what they are, you accept them or you look somewhere else ( except Lewisham as that is worse than Glasgow).

I would love to live in Eaton Square but sadly, short of squatting, it isn't going to happen. Am I chucking my toys out the pram about it? Not yet....

[benmorg]

chantelle Wrote:

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> benmorg - you've got to be kidding. Deptford may

> not be some top destination but it has definitely

> had massive development and new build flats are

> going at similar prices to nicer areas.

But not the kind of development that improves an area - take a stroll down Deptford High Street.

New-build flats fall furthest and fastest when the market tanks. They aren't a good investment. Good value at auction when they get repossessed though.

[Catalyst]

Deptford didn't take off because it never had the right kind of housing stock in the first place. Having good transport links will never change that. Just take a walk around Bermondsey or Elephant.

Improving transport links in an area with a load of family sized Victorian houses is a totally different matter though.

[StraferJack]

Just take a walk around Bermondsey

Bermondsey hasn't been improved? compared to when? I would argue strongly that Bermondsey now compared to 20 years ago is a massive improvement. And not just Bermondsey St

And Elephant is changing too

[benmorg]

StraferJack Wrote:

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> Just take a walk around Bermondsey

>

> Bermondsey hasn't been improved? compared to when?

> I would argue strongly that Bermondsey now

> compared to 20 years ago is a massive improvement.

> And not just Bermondsey St

>

> And Elephant is changing too

At elephant the high-rise blocks of flats are being knocked down and replaced with.. high-rise blocks of flats. I'm not sure this will transform the area. Maybe proximity to central London will eventually do the trick. They need to raze that depressing shopping centre though.

[trizza]

I moved to bermondsey in 2003 (just off tower bridge road- so near elephant) and left to move to ED in October last year.

The area certainly changed whilst I was there. The western end is faring better in terms of gentrification - spill over from bermondsey st area. Bermondsey tube area is surrounded by council estates and has not changed that much, although there are new developments cropping up.

Elephant in a funny place. Financial crisis massively delayed development and it seems that the awful shopping centre will never be knocked down. Many people got caught badly short buying in the new blocks that were completed in 09/10 and were in negative equity. That said, heygate has been demolished, which is (some would say) a step forward. Other big issue they have there is that the tube is not up to handling increased numbers (no escalators) which is proving to be problematic from a development perspective.

[Spooner]

-- moved topic --

[chantelle]

there are quite a lot of nice period houses (and squares) around Elephant. I have faith it will eventually come into its own.

[Annette Curtain]

Tea anyone ?

Don't even think of moving out my way.

That east london line super speedy train every 5-7 minutes is way crowded already

:)

[new mother]

Where are you, pls? Super speedy sounds good (and rare)

[Annette Curtain]

new mother Wrote:

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> Where are you, pls? Super speedy sounds good (and

> rare)

My lips are sydenham sealed.

From my house to work ( Hoxton ) 30 mins.

Canada Water 20+ minutes.

(tu)