Heart rending plea... (by estate agents)

[macroban]

When prices have stopped falling and people have stopped taking low offers would be a better time to buy.

The crucial question is the gap in time and price between this and seanmlow's position.

[seanmlow]

Macroban -

Why would you wait until prices have risen again to purchase? Surely, if one can obtain the property they want at under market value, or at a reduced price, this is more appealing? No?

[Ted Max]

No answer to my post?

How do you assess market value, Sean. Seems to be "it's less than last year so it must be a good deal." How do you know the deals currently available = less than market value?

[seanmlow]

Ted -

I don't think of it in those terms.

I look at a deal and based on a number of factors, and specific to that property, one can assess whether it is a good deal or not to be honest. However, as you quite rightly suggest, this isn't an exact science. If it was, I would be a rich man!

I have to say - I try and pride myself on giving a service that is different to other agents. I know we have a bad rep, and I really do try and pleasantly surprise people!

[mikeb]

Just thought I'd throw my oar in here.

I'm struggling to see how there are properties available "below market value" when presumably "market value" is derived from the prices at which properties are selling. The relevant question is "where is the market going to go in the next few years?" This time frame is relevant since it's the minimum justifiable time between buying and selling, given the eye-popping cost of stamp duty.

Certainly if you believe RICS, the govt or the BoE then it seems like we're in for a rough ride in the next year or so, with little prospect of inflation renewing when prices eventually stop falling: banks and building societies are just not going to lend again like they were last year. Also, property derivatives markets are also betting on a fall - see below. Clearly, this is just a market view, but at least some people are backing this view with cash.

=============================================

LONDON, May 6 2008 (Reuters) - The average cost of a British house is expected to sink by 14 percent over the next year and prices could take a decade to return to 2007 highs, property derivative brokers said on Tuesday.

Average prices are expected to drop by ?26,000 in the next 12 months, having already fallen by 5 percent since the market peaked in August, derivatives prices showed.

Dealers said Britain's residential property derivatives market was also now projecting an 18 percent drop over two years in the non-seasonally adjusted Halifax house price index (HPI).

[macroban]

>> When prices have stopped falling and people have stopped taking low offers would be a better time to buy.

> Why would you wait until prices have risen again to purchase? Surely, if one can obtain the property they want at under market value, or at a reduced price, this is more appealing? No?

seanmlow:

I wrote a simple description of the bottom of a trough. That's all. There may be a small rally after a trough. A trough may not be the trough that is the bottom of the market. That's why it's better to buy as near as possible to the bottom of a trough, and best to buy at the bottom of the trough of troughs.

mikeb has already pointed out that buying a house below market value is a tautology. Unless, of course, it is an interesting transaction engineered reduce the price for CGT, IHT, or other more technical tax iability (which I'm sure does not happen in East Dulwich).

"The fact that prices have fallen and people are taking low offers!" does not, of itself, make it " a very good time to buy".

[bignumber5]

Why would you wait until prices have risen again to purchase?

surely prices drop, prices level off, prices rise again. waiting until prices rise again ever so slightly is the best indication that they have got as low as they are going to, no? I think this is what macroban is saying, so apologies if I'm parroting.

As stated above, low compared to last year tho prices may be, if they drop even more next year then a purchase this year will seem like a bad idea, retrospectively. if they go back up a tiny bit and you buy, you've still bought at roughly the right time and it's only cost you one price-rise to be sure of that. that sounds like a long term plan.

edited as realised i was repeating what macroban was saying...

[ibo]

Trying to catch the bottom of the market needs lots of luck . A small rise in house prices may not indicate the bottom has been reached . The decision to buy , or sell , will depend on many factors such as family circumstances , financial position , and expectations of future pricing trends.There is a very strong possibility that prices will continue to fall for another twelve months.If one needs a home and can afford to pay current prices buy now .Otherwise , hang on for another year and take a calculated gamble and buy then.

[macroban]

Thanks bignumber5, you expressed it far better than I did.

[macroban]

I see that Charcol's problems are increasing. Closing branches and making 25% of staff redundant.

[Asset]

Partly to do with the increase in on-line brokers and not just general downturn though IMO

[Jeremy]

macroban Wrote:

> mikeb has already pointed out that buying a house below market value is a tautology.

I'm no expert, but wouldn't that be an oxymoron, not a tautology? I thought a tautology was sort of a double truth... a redundancy in logic.

[SteveT]

Buying a house is merely to keep the rain off and the increasing values are due to the plummeting intenational value of the pound.

If you want to get rich you would be wise to start a business which is there solely to make you money.

Property is a good long term investment, it's better than having any savings of pounds in the bank, which seem to melt down on an annual basis.

I would liken my bank account to the compost heap in the garden it does not seem to matter how much you pile on top, it disappears or erodes at a regular rate whether you use it or not.

[bignumber5]

Buying a house is merely to keep the rain off... If you want to get rich you would be wise to start a business which is there solely to make you money.

I'm not in it to "play the market", but I don't think it's as simple as just keeping the rain off. I'd rather not end up with 6 figures of negative equity.

[Jeremy]

I do like to keep my eye on what's happening in the market... and can't help wondering if this is a joke:

http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0&pid=1692172&agentid=03760

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

Well, they do say it's a "rear opportunity"!

[We-All-Adora-Marmora]

As a newbie to the ED forum, despite living on (you guessed it, Marmora Road) for the last 6 years, I was sat here reading through my second ever thread thinking "this is bloody great"!

... an entertaining jilly-cooper-esque romp, centring on a jodhpur clad (gross assumption) Oxford-educated local estate agent banging on about "best university in the country"!!! Hooorah! Oxford-tastic! Juicier than Vanessa feltz's hiney!

Having gone to the quite splendid Warwick University (Law, 1994-1997, 2.1., 68% average - get me!), my intensely well developed brainage let forth an audible "whoop" as it drunk in the razor-sharp prose and insightful musings of our Oxford-educated anti-hero as he battled East Dulwich?s hordes of illiterate proletariat.

Unsheathing his moral and intellectual girth and like an unsupervised cad on an oily-buttock-farm, our very own ED Stephen Hawkin* set upon the protruding (and almost certainly organic) buttocks of the uneducated masses ? expending his Oxford-approved authority and unbridled superiority all over the aligned pink, ebony and caramel-cheeked butt-sparagus!

"Stupendous! Hoorah! etc", I exclaimed - what a rip-roarer of a thread!

Imagine my dismay then, KFC family chicken bucket still brimming, the thread reverted back to property prices and stuff... I cast my 3D specs a-sunder, deployed the trusty lazy-boy to vertical and sloped off in the hope of returning to a juicier ending**? and news of the opening of an oily-buttock-bar just off Lordship Lane.

* Also a graduate of ?the best university in the country? - titter.

** one possible suggested ending: ?Exhausted, and girth safely tucked in pants, our protagonist settled down to a cup of tea, a copy of Living South, a half finished treatise on his own Theory of Relativity and a battered copy of razzle (for our man could also multi-task!).?

[Administrator]

The reason threads go back on topic is because it is unfair on the majority when the discussion goes off topic, usually about personal things that are of no interest to anyone who is interested in that original topic. That said they can be quite amusing which is why you will sometimes find, usually after a "get back on topic" reminder, that threads get "Lounged" where they can continue in a more relaxed environment.

Anyway welcome to the forum, I hope you enjoy it and find it useful and fun and perhaps one day your dreams of an "oily-buttock bar just of Lordship Lane" will come true.

Now please stay on topic.

[We-All-Adora-Marmora]

Whoops, sorry!

...suitably chastened, our newbie slinks to the lounge; fruit n' brolly laden Pi?a Colada in left hand, a copy of "Jaaaazz - Pilates for the Soul" in the other....