House prices start to fall

[Blackcurrant]

sophiesofa Wrote:

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> We were told by a local agent that in East Dulwich

> the open day madness is over and prices are

> generally stable, so not going up or down at the

> moment.

Estate agents always use the word stable when prices are falling. Very few people acknowledged prices were falling in London in 2008 until after the fact, when it became impossible to ignore the mountain of evidence. Even then, a lot agents insisted prices were staying firm in good locations, though they had actually fallen 15-20% everywhere in London.

Supply has doubled in SE22 since January and demand has fallen. But that doesn't mean prices will fall much. Supply is still on the tight side if you look at the numbers.

Optimistic pricing is likely to continue. People are quick to raise prices but slow to drop them - prices are sticky downward. Having said that, market values are set at the margins. People who have to sell quickly will come down while the rest get stuck. If you want to find a bargain, find a seller in a hurry.

I don't agree with the posters who say the only way is up for London. Efficient markets price in all publicly available knowledge, so the shortage is already priced in. The future path of prices depends on unknowable factors such as lending rate fluctuations.

[pinecone]

hurrah

[Mustard]

I don't remember prices falling round here in 2008.

[Blackcurrant]

Mustard Wrote:

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> I don't remember prices falling round here in

> 2008.

They fell 20%, but prices have risen so much since then that you'd be forgiven for not noticing.

[eastdulwichproperty]

Yes, I have a valuation from hsbc for my house in 2007 at 400k and then 3 years later for various reasons I needed to remortgage, the same bank valued it at 300k, certainly dropped at least 20% in 3 years.Now of course irrelevent since it is worth 600k but in the short term prices can easily go down a fair bit even in good areas where estate agents lie and say it can't happen here...only in 'up and coming areas'

[neilson99]

The market is definitely "softening" as an agent said to me a few weeks ago.

My girlfriend and I are looking for a house as we're expecting, it's pretty amazing what people are asking for. I've lived in the area for 10 years now, never dreamt that a nice, but pretty standard, house would cost ?750k to ?1m. Thankfully we both have flats which have risen with the market so we have equity that can help here, tho it's still a huge amount.

You just have to look at Zoopla who publish listing history on properties and tell you when they've been reduced. A house that we looked when it dropped ?30k in May has just come down another ?50k. About 9% reduction on original listing, which doesn't seem to now be unusual, tho by no means the norm - ?25k reductions at this level seem standard.I think a lot of sellers have just been amazed by the market and looking it cash in.

[alice]

For sale prices have dropped

selling prices havent

[MrBen]

Yawn.

Is any of this a surprise to anyone? Has a 20% a year rise ever sustainable historically? And looking back even just 30 years what happened next?

I will vote for any party that has the balls to tax the sale of second or more homes at a special CGT rate equal to income tax.

In 3 to 5 years i just hope anyone who just bought in London will be comfy at a 4% plus base rate. Whatever Carney just said. For the average home owner wanting tk be better off long term now is the time to pay down mortgage debt not to leverage further.

[eastdulwichproperty]

alice Wrote:

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> For sale prices have dropped

> selling prices havent

Time will tell when the land registry prices come out in 4 to 6 months but from what I am seeing the actual sale prices have come down, it is estate agents that will always say they haven't. Previously houses put on at silly prices were getting offers of silly prices plus more, now stuff is coming on a bit more realistic and getting offers under asking, it all equates to actual sale prices massively reduced from march/april at the height of the madness

[Robert Poste's Child]

I wonder if the overinflated prices this spring were due the interest rate rise that has been signalled for later this year, with people - and estate agents - trying to get one final hurrah and cash in before the markets tips and the party's over for a while. The 2008 dip doesn't seem to have made much difference to the overall price trend and personally I'd like to see a massive correction along the lines of the one in the early 90s.

[Seabag]

I quite like house prices rising by 20%

It makes diner parties way more interesting, well that and talking about allergies.

[MissKing]

From what I hear from friends looking in other areas such as crystal palace as they have been priced out from here, its still going silly. Open day viewings, sealed bids and stuff going for at least 30k over asking price. Maybe the market has moved - people realised the prices here had got stupid and looked elsewhere.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Not allergies, 'intolerances'. You're forgetting School catchment areas too.

Seabag Wrote:

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> I quite like house prices rising by 20%

>

> It makes diner parties way more interesting, well

> that and talking about allergies.

[Big D]

jalongy Wrote:

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> KFH East Dulwich are indeed guilty of of

> over-valuing as well as of many other issues. -

> they are a disgrace. Other KFH's in the country v

> good but unfortunately the East Dulwich branch are

> not - avoid at all costs

To be fair we used KFH ED and we sold the house within 3 days at the asking price suggested by KFH. They were courteous, efficient and did not charge a fortune. Maybe it depends on whether you are buying or selling!

[eastdulwich_dweller]

The main reason house prices have been static is the new rules created by the mortgage market review. These new processes at banks have at least doubled the time it takes to get a mortgage. You would have read about the silly questions some of them are asking to understand affordability (e.g How many steaks do you eat in a week?). It will take time for brokers and banks to circumvent the system like they did in 2003 with liar loans and now in 2012 with help to buy.

House prices in central London will always be a function of bank credit, rising foreign demand and to an extent planning restrictions.

Wealthy people buy property when times are uncertain. Why put money in a bond or equites and take the risk when you can pay 4% stamp and less than 0.1% regular tax and watch your capital grow at an average of 6%+ a year? This is why you see decrepit mansions in West London. Consequently a halo effect occurs on factory worker Victorian terraced houses, which are the ones the middle class can afford. They generally need to go into more and more debt to afford the same life style - effectively robbing their future and any inheritance to just keep living a reasonable lifestyle.

In the days where EU governments have stated that anyone with over ?100K in the bank will have up to 40% of it confiscated if the bank fails its just not worth keeping a lot of money around. Read your new bank T&Cs...welcome to a new world, you own the bank but you have no say in how it is run and no payments from its profits, you only take on its losses when it fails.

[Property news]

KFH east dulwich seem to be getting their personal lives involved within the office. I hear the manager is sleeping with one of his sales negotiators and obviously helping her to do well in the business. How unprofessional! I would never trust these agents with my property after the things I've heard. I feel sorry for the other hard workers trying to earn a living. No chance with the girlfriend and boyfriend around! Overall I think this is disgusting and cannot understand how KFH allow and if anything, promote such practises.

[StraferJack]

would love to know which office that "property news" was sent from

[buddug]

Libel case anyone?

[*Bob*]

StraferJack Wrote:

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> would love to know which office that "property

> news" was sent from

I suspect this one is an 'inside job'

[StraferJack]

I dunno

http://www.eastdulwichforum.co.uk/forum/read.php?30,1355930,1361930#msg-1361930

[Property news]

It's not by any means a false statement. I would suggest you investigating it further if you are ever to use KFH as an agent to sell your property. I certainly will no longer be using them.

[MrBen]

Hmm can't see that agencies (link above) senior team posting this though - they're way too smart for that. Could be a junior type ex KFH employee with a grudge. If so I wouldn't be too happy if I was the boss over at Winkworth towers.

People in business properly know you should never knock the competition.

[nxjen]

"Property News" style seems very familiar ...

[*Bob*]

Property news Wrote:

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> It's not by any means a false statement. I would

> suggest you investigating it further if you are

> ever to use KFH as an agent to sell your property.

> I certainly will no longer be using them.

How does this alleged boss-shagging affect a potential customer? Who gives a sh1t ffs?

You clearly have a personal axe to grind.

[Property news]

It affects a potential customer because you will only be informed of the offers coming from his girlfriend and not anybody else. That again, is breaking the law. But nobody would know this because you expect your agent to inform you of all offers for your property.