and with respect to anyone going into detail about the various factors, debt values, GDP blah blah blah - I am officially not listening to ANYONE who is making any kind of prediction. If we have learned anything from recent times it's that no-one knows jack. A very very small number of people are able to point to predictions they made 3 years ago, which turned out to be largely true but that doesn't mean it was expertise on their part - it could just as easily have been a maverick reaction to prevailing consensus It could all fall off a cliff tomorrow or it might start to get better, or it might through another sudden cycle - but we'll manage.