Sephiroth

"the UK government (under all 3 PMs we've had since the referendum) has made significantly tougher going of the process of leaving that it probably needed to be." I think it's worth digging into why this might be. Bad fortune alone seems unlikely? TO have one prime minister unable to handle brexit well is unfortunate, to have two etc etc The simple, and obvious reason (which you will reject) is because it's a bad idea, means different things to different leave voters and is undeliverable without smashing the economy, breaking up the UK and still disappointing large % of leave voters By all means, paint a picture (real or fictional) of a prime minister who would be capable of delivering a good brexit, what it would look like and who wouldn't alienate the differing leave factions The reason we have had 3 prime ministers unable to deliver it is because as soon as IT starts to take a form, any form, beyond the fantastical promises, it pisses enough people off to ditch a prime minister. And we will shortly have another to add to that list (as well as the broken economy, angry population, Scottish referendum etc) Risk is all very well as a concept - but as you know it's about weighing the possible benefits against possible losses and includes probabilities. The possible wins of brexit were always nebulous and meaningless in harsh daylight, the losses were always way too harsh and risky (the country doesn't shoot for a prize and if it misses go back to where it was) and the probability massively weighted towards the latter The wins potentially include UK surging ahead of Germany, France etc and becoming some amazing success story. That was never likely What is going to happened is UK will AT BEST end up being the basket case it was in the 70s. Just as likely is even further to fall - Argentina being a salutary story But sure - people like me, Red Devil/rouge/blah are wrong but people like Farage, Redwood, Martin, O'Neil, Grimes etc are the smart people in the room If the only WIN is Sovereignty then we have very definition Fool's Gold. It's meaningless concept in the modern world of trade. It seems unlikely that Germany, France, Ireland and all the rest don't get "sovereignty" and there is a reason they aren't all clamouring for it in the way that extremists in UK are

? If the economic fallout is quite as apocalyptic as many remainers seem to think it will be then every section of the economy and all jobs are at risk. ? Don?t take remainers word for it. Government?s own analysis will do just fine Eu countries have sovereignty U.K. will have to give parts of it?s sovereignty with every new trade deal they do As a principle it is the most deluded and self-defeating in history

Bit defensive innit?

I?ve said before that the poll tax had a mandate until it suddenly didn?t. This is that times 100. I do t think the backlash will comprise everyone saying ?I was wrong?. But it will be chaotic and brutal. Which is more than the country needs Ah but where are the leaders to lead? Nowhere. Absolutely nowhere

That isn?t what I said. I described why people voted the way they did in 2016 - which is the exact opposite of you saying ?most ardent brexiter said there would be problems? But you view them as idiots which is... instructive

Yeah you might well have But forgive me if I prick your delusions. The population of United Kingdom didn?t base their decision on what you might have thought or said. For most, they placed their trust in people, political leaders, who lied to them Should they have thought about it as much as you? Yes the probably should have. Would the referendum have passed. Not a chance Just because you are a deluded character doesn?t mean reality will bend to your will. You are all in on a pair of twos. It?s a pair. You might actually win. But you are fool for betting on it. And you are criminal for assuming others will pay your debt

? Even the most ardent brexiteer would always acknowledge that the disruption of the exit would be negative. It's not exactly a suprise? Well now that just isn?t true is it. That may be what brexiters have pivoted to. But certainly to win a referendum that was very much not the message was it? You know all of the examples from all of the leaders as well as I do So don?t make stuff up. I know you know I?m right. It bothers the living shite out of you. It?s an itch you can never scratch. I know you have even convinced yourself that isn?t true. But it is

A feature of all cults is to vilify people who point out the emporer is wearing no cloths From David Koresh to scientologists, they rely on intelligent people swallowing the koolaid And make no mistake here - Cat, YOU are the mark. As a smart bloke you would be in the branch davidian compound, about 3 levels down from The Glorious Leader, but several levels above the great unwashed. You might have even harboured some doubts. But better to commit and follow the obvious lie than allow thought, doubt, reason to creep in

Still wanging on about ?potential? upsides. 4 years later. Just to divert from the upcoming shitshow For god sake man, have some self respect The whole thing is led by charlatans. Even if you wanted to believe you can surely see the people leading are just the worst. The only future is an indeterminate amount of years of fumbling and denying reality before rejoining because that is clearly the most advantageous position to be in. You don?t have to die on this hill of all hills

even Dutch PM (Dutch = more UK friendly than other countries) has tweeted "Dutch PM Mark Rutte responds to Boris Johnson's declaration that he's ready to go to 'Paris, Brussels or Berlin' for a deal. "I would invite him to stay in London and work hard," Rutte told reporters. "We have our own negotiator, Michel Barnier, so the capitals don't negotiate." "

amazing how much flak Corbyn got on all media for being a scruff, but with Johnson it's not just ignored, for many it's a happy byproduct of his schtick (I say this as no fan of Corbyn and I'm glad he is gone)

a corollary Johnson doesn't sign a deal, screws the country and breaks up the Uk - he's toast or Johnson signs a pitiful deal (because of his redlines and because of the reality of balance of power) and he is toast as his party turns on him for "giving in"

None so blind...

I?m genuinely and deeply sorry to hear that Ted But a) I wasn?t to know and b) not sure it has relevance on a thread about global pandemic and upcoming vaccines But I too have had family also diagnosed with cancer and know the pain. When this pandemic is over maybe people like you and me can share a pint/juice and console each other

"Cancer kills more than covid" gee - I wonder if any country in the world has figured this out yet???

The tiniest sliver of goodwill, benefit of doubt, some scintilla that The Cat knows what they speak of Pooooof....

Sorry nx. Let?s try again https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/23/conservative-party-members-stand-boris-would-vote- Nope. That doesn?t work either. But if I manually paste link to a browser it does Anyway. Try Googling ?yougov party members Boris?

This is most recent I could find. But it?s from summer. Which is like aeons ago https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/23/conservative-party-members-stand-boris-would-vote-

As for new tory leader, who MPs like or don?t like is beside the point. The leader will be chosen by the wingnuts of the membership Johnson will be gone in weeks. His majority has nothing to do with it. He is manifestly ill suited to the job. Clearly doesn?t enjoy it. And within days will have to make the decision the country has avoided for 4 years. And when he makes that decision, events will take over and he will be gone. Then, with the effects of that decision unfolding next year, the mood of the nation will darken considerably. I would not bet on there being no election for 3 or 4 years Even without the effects of brexit, we will have a party which will have had 4 leaders in 4 years, with no discernible taken near the cabinet. I don?t think that?s sustainable until 2024

"Will Boris now become the PM he was always meant to be and save the country from Coronavirus and Brexit." No - he won't. He can't Because brexit never was and never will be a circle that can be squared He signs a (thin) deal with EU? Country is worse off than now AND ERG headbangers will do for him He leaves without a deal? - Country is banjaxed and sane people with do for him Whichever way he jumps... he is done for. Because that Brexit chicken is about to land for real

Because of COURSE keano believes in conspiracy theories Dat Sovrin-T virus again

" didn?t know what they were voting for and so on." if leavers knew what they were voting for they (in and oustide government) wouldn't have spent the last 4 years being permamantly cross about every interpretation of brexit any day now JOhnson will sign a deal or not sign a deal - what did YOU vote for Keano? Deal or no deal?

"Sephiroth Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > amazing what can happen if, after 4 years, a > country is asked if it has changed it's mind about > a decision it made 4 years ago Repeat after me 'a referendum is not the same as a general election'....." I can only imagine how pleased you were with yourself when you typed that ;-) But it remains a glib reponse to a extremely serious situation When I say a referendum is not the same as an election, it's clear I'm referring to the fact that elections cycles are the democratic norm, well-established and are able to be reversed in subsequent elections - people can be upset about their outcome but they can be judged and reversed. Johnson got his 80 seat majority last year but there was no movement to nullify or recount the election result Referendums - specifically the shape and manner in which it was handled of THIS referendum - throws all that out the window. It's a massive, self-inflcited wound at the best of times, and criminal in the middle of a pandemic. Any other grown up country would have built in thresholds for such a momentous decision, or a mechanism to ratify. Indeed several leavers talked about this ratification pre referendum And it remains a referendum built on an undeliverable promise. It is not a referendum about divorce, abortion, gun-control whatever I know all of these are old points. But they remain as factual and true as ever That referendum will destroy the united kingdom and SHOULD be reversed before it's too late. And that is something that is now near-impossible but still something we could work towards. people like keano are too infected with the Sovrin-T virus to ever see that - but most sensible people can

amazing what can happen if, after 4 years, a country is asked if it has changed it's mind about a decision it made 4 years ago

I do wonder if there is anything else out there in the air which is about to crash into unescapable reality after 4 years of people making excuses for it