Is ED about to experience another property boom?

[SteveT]

Quids wrote:- A boom!!!! No way and as was pointed out the excessive housing boom of the past few years is a major reason we are in this crap.....

The major reason we are in this er crap is because we can no longer manufacture and export our goods competetively.

Most jobs today seem to be in front of a screen, not weilding tools.

The housing boom and bust adds nothing to our economy

no matter how important the government thinks it is, they are master delusionists and do not have a clue how to make this country of ours profitable.

Bunch of crooked, expense grasping, no hope toss pots, I heard some one mention somewhere, I think it is derogatory saying such things about the greatest government in the world.

[Louisa]

SteveT a truer post has never been posted.

Made in GB is no longer a credible force - why? Because successive governments of all colours have slowly eroded away our ability to produce and export goods. We sold everything off from cars to steel, and then it would was decided on our behalf that a whole host of traditional British industries should be completely ravaged overnight without any mechanism in place to help aid our economy into a new era.

We have been sitting on a ticking timebomb since the late 1980's. We have around a decade of oil left in the North Sea, our banking system has proven just how fragile it really is and indeed unreliable. Set this against the backdrop of an economy almost conjoined to the United States and here we lay in utter ruin.

As for the housing market, it was all a bunch of lies - a stupid crappy little terrace in a shitty part of SE London worth how much? Get real for god sakes, you must be living in dreamworld if you thought that was gonna last.

Fast forward to Britain in 2010, house prices still falling, people still losing jobs (potentially 3 to 4 million out of work, and an economy hanging on by the skin of its teeth. Go another decade beyond that and you may be questioning why you ever stayed behind on this sinking ship.

Louisa.

[matthew123]

lenk Wrote:

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> I was told on this very forum almost a year ago

> that Foxton's would be closing and replaced with a

> Sainsbury's / Somerfield / another branch of

> Foxton's

>

> I'm still waiting... : (

I thought the whole idea of Foxton's was to aggressively drive out the other Estate Agents, so we can double up number of Curry houses on Lordship Lane!?

[Cassius]

Fast forward to Britain in 2010, house prices still falling, people still losing jobs (potentially 3 to 4 million out of work, and an economy hanging on by the skin of its teeth. Go another decade beyond that and you may be questioning why you ever stayed behind on this sinking ship.

Louisa.

So where are we going then Louisa? :)

[Louisa]

Cassius, the Maldives for 6 months of the year, and New Zealand for the remainder. I bet my shitty little terrace could buy me a 5 bed beach house in both countries and still give me some change. You coming?

Louisa.

[Cassius]

Count me in - my terrace could help finance our champagne and oyster lifestyle (and we could always have Greggs export some sausage rolls if we feel the need to slum it a bit!!)

[Louisa]

Cassius a nice Greggs sausage roll washed down with a bottle of Dom, does life get much better?

Louisa.

[*Bob*]

A bottle of Pom would be more appropriate.

[SeanMacGabhann]

Quids - there is money to be made here. Louisa says she is leaving the sinking sh.. err country. I reckon it's safe money that she isn't going anywhere.. odds?

[EDOldie]

grabot Wrote:

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> Looks like a bull trap to me.

Had a look at that chart and its very puzzling. First there?s a stealth phase, then the awareness phase followed by the mania phase and finally the blow off(?) phase. What does it all mean?

[Louisa]

Sean, I cant wait to prove you all wrong and jump on that plane to a nice safe sunny location, and leave behind this damp dull overcrowded island for somewhere where people actually have something known as 'quality of life' ... watch this space!

Louisa.

[macroban]

The Maldives are expected to become quite damp within a few years.

[ibilly99]

Dead cat bounce if that is what it is - sell into this suckers rally if you can - just remember they are printing money for the first time in 350 years the biggest boom in economic history has turned into the biggest bust in economic history http://www.howitends.co.uk/

[Louisa]

I genuinely do not understand how anyone can honestly believe that this minor adjustment is anything but a skipped heartbeat. We have interest rates at the lowest level they have EVER been, the government has run out of tools to revive the economy and is now printing money in the vein hope that this may actually stimulate the economy, there is no evidence whatsoever that this is a guarantee, we are in unchartered territory here.

Country after country is on the verge of bankruptcy, countries such as Ireland, Spain, Latvia, Hungary all very close to home - not to mention that biggest current casualty of all, Iceland! If anything we are not even in the centre of the storm yet, things will more than likely pick up pace towards the middle/end of the year and this could result in a terrible end to 2009. I have in my lifetime NEVER experienced such a huge crash as this in such a small timescale, make no mistake everyone, we are f*cked!

Louisa.

[ibilly99]

Right one Louisa - you've got it this is Great Depression 2 but with 24 hour news channels and better drugs

[tommy]

So Emily - what kind of property did you sell and how much did it go for ? ;-)

[lard]

One month Halifax figures go up and Nationwide down. Next month they are the other way round.

So few sales means that data can be skewed on a monthly basis.

They're still going down in general, that's all you need to know really.

[Josh]

House prices do seem to have stabilized in ED and in fact everywhere else in the UK this spring. But the housing market is being artificially supported by the government's various economic stimuli, especially very low interest rates. The thing is, interest rates can only go up from here, so the long-term outlook is still poor. If the UK does go begging to the IMF, we may end up in the same dire straits as Iceland, with interest rates shooting up to 18%. That won't be very good for house prices.

Even at their current level 20% below peak, UK house prices in terms of average salary multiples are still higher than they ever were in the late 80s boom. We've a long, long way to go before they fall back to levels that are sustainable in the long term, and it won't be a smooth ride down.

[grabot]

EdOldie Wrote:

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> Had a look at that chart and its very puzzling. First there?s a stealth phase, then the awareness phase followed by the mania phase and finally the blow off phase. What does it all mean?

Imagine a thirsty and relatively individualistic herd. A few smell water and sneak off to have a drink. They let a few of their mates know and awareness grows. Eventually word spreads to the entire herd and they stampede towards the now diminishing water supply. In the adrenal fuelled panic any sign of water raises hopes disproportionately. Eventually, exhausted, the herd surrender.

[MrBen]

Louisa Wrote:

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> Sean, I cant wait to prove you all wrong and jump

> on that plane to a nice safe sunny location, and

> leave behind this damp dull overcrowded island for

> somewhere where people actually have something

> known as 'quality of life' ... watch this space!

>

> Louisa.

I agree Louisa. And I dont actually think you are joking. If I have to live in London then East Dulwich is a great place to be. But lets be honest there are a million better places to live for quality of life. Amazing city but truthfully it's serving a purpose, a place to find a nice girl, make some money, have a bit of fun....and after I've had my fill why would I live here longer than I need to? I fell in love with Sydney when I lived there, an awesome place to raise a family and for general quality of life. South of France if you want lifestyle but an easy flying time home. And Scotland if you want to stay within the UK. The borders is a beautiful place. All I need is my macbook and a Blackberry.

Edited due to hangover

[indiepanda]

Josh Wrote:

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> House prices do seem to have stabilized in ED and

> in fact everywhere else in the UK this spring. But

> the housing market is being artificially supported

> by the government's various economic stimuli,

> especially very low interest rates. The thing is,

> interest rates can only go up from here, so the

> long-term outlook is still poor. If the UK does go

> begging to the IMF, we may end up in the same dire

> straits as Iceland, with interest rates shooting

> up to 18%. That won't be very good for house

> prices.

>

> Even at their current level 20% below peak, UK

> house prices in terms of average salary multiples

> are still higher than they ever were in the late

> 80s boom. We've a long, long way to go before they

> fall back to levels that are sustainable in the

> long term, and it won't be a smooth ride down.

The man speaks sense, ???? too. People were fooled into buying in the last house price crash thinking the market had levelled out, but it carried on falling and didn't recover for years. One month's rise won't tempt me back into the market.

[dc]

But prices rose in Dulwich during the last recession and flatlined in ED. Admittedly this downturn is a different beast with global implications but then the response to it has been rather more robust than last time too. Who knows?

[Dr De Soto]

dc Wrote:

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> But prices rose in Dulwich during the last

> recession and flatlined in ED.

DC I don't know what part of Dulwich you are talking about, but most people I know saw prices drop 30% or more during the early 90s recession, across East Dulwich and Dulwich. I remember a friend buying a house for ?100k that had originally been listed at ?135k, and that was fairly typical.

[Louisa]

Dr De Soto Wrote:

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> dc Wrote:

> ---------------------------------------

>

I remember a

> friend buying a house for ?100k that had

> originally been listed at ?135k, and that was

> fairly typical.

I bought a house off the back end of that last recession and I can remember that the price had dropped substantially from the original figure. ED was not a desirable part of town back then and house prices if anything took more of a batering around here than they did in the more affluent parts of town. This downturn is indded a very different beast to pretty much any recession since the 'Great Depression' of the 1930's. Also bare in mind that we have come off a huge high this time and so the fall has been a hell of a lot steeper and considerably quicker than the last 'depression'.

Louisa.

[Josh]

dc Wrote:

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> But prices rose in Dulwich during the last

> recession and flatlined in ED. Admittedly this

> downturn is a different beast with global

> implications but then the response to it has been

> rather more robust than last time too. Who knows?

average London prices fell 29% in the last bust, with poorest parts of London hardest hit. East Dulwich was hit quite hard, Dulwich village less so.

But there's an important difference between the last crash and this one. Last time round we had high inflation and high interest rates. The high inflation masked the fall in real values. If house prices stay flat and inflation runs at 10%, then house prices are falling about 10% in real terms. This time round we don't have high inflation, so the full extent of falls in real values will also occur in nominal values. Parts of London that flatlined in the last crash (but fell in real terms) will fall both in real and in nominal terms this time.

And of course sterling is falling too, so it's a double whammy. House prices in London have already halved from the point of view of Europeans.